NorthHillsWx

0.06” last night/this morning, not sure when, but MTD 2.57”. Hoping for another couple rounds of rain this week especially at my farm where our fall food plots are getting ready to go in.

Not entirely accurate. We’re way below average on most counts. On average a hurricane forms in the Atlantic by August 11, which were 10 days past and adding to that. Also, yes there have been 3 storms, but none made it 2 days and one was a TS for like 6 hours. Our seasonal ACE is at a anemic, bottom % for this time of year, level. There have been 3 (3!) August’s in history without a named storm, and we are going to be flirting with rarified territory there. I think we’ll get a NS but we’re running out of wiggle room on that front, rapidly. Lastly, this was forecast to be a “hyperactive” year, so seasonal #’s are and will continue to be more scrutinized than say if the forecasts predicted an average season. 1999 is a popular analog, but by the end of this week that year we had 3 cat 4’s. That’s not happening this year. Maybe the script flips but we are starting WAY behind the 8-ball

Loving this below average stretch!

Raise your hand if a few weeks ago you thought we’d be sitting on August 21st looking past hour 220 on the 18z GFS run trying to find our “D” storm… It’s going to pick up but my oh my what a lackluster stretch

0.68” of rain today brings us to 2.51” for the month. High of 83 but spent the majority of the day in the 70’s. Very widespread rain today across NC

I’ll give myself kudos here: I never bit, especially after they flew that plane in there I did think it had a chance while it was still over the Yucatán but it clearly was sheared and disorganized after it entered BOC. Lesson for all: wait for recon/ascat before jumping to conclusions on convection

I know it’s going to change, but long term average ACE for today’s date is around 20. We’re sitting at 2.8….

Yep, MLC is further south and showing pretty clearly on radar. You can see the disorganization beyond that

I think we’re in for some big east coast impacts over the remainder of the season, though I would drastically cut season numbers based on when the season looks to get going. I think this season ends up with 14-16 NS, 7-8 hurricanes, and 3 majors. And I think at least 3 hurricanes will threaten the east coast with at least 1 actual landfall. Not hype, just looking at the basin, upper air pattern and consistent HP placement, and lack of significant shear especially with that large HP entrenched over the mid latitudes. As floydbyster points out, there are some great analog years for this season with loaded September and octobers. Dry, stable air can be overcome, and the wave train that is almost unanimously forecast to accelerate off the African coast in the coming weeks will fix that issue. This will still be a very significant season with major impact potential, and higher than normal impacts between cape hatteras through the east coast of Florida

I agree with the safety factor but we’re talking worst case scenario here a quick short lived 35-40kt storm. That’s not something the public needs to be aware of, despite gale warnings for sea and flash flood watches. If it had TS force winds I’d agree with the PTC designation. Why was the last system not designated a PTC while this was? That one was more organized and caused more rain than this will?

IMO- this should never have been designated a PTC. Recon clearly revealed an open wave yesterday, it had limited time over water, absolutely no model support even after being labeled an Invest, and a marginal shear environment to work with. I understand it was close to land but we can’t label every wave close to land a PTC. If it had TS force winds already (Like PTC 1) or some model support or some semblance of a developing circulation per recon, I wouldn’t question this. However lacking all of the above, the decision was questionable

0.09” overnight brings monthly total to 1.83”

Guarantee if that scenario happened the storm would slow down about 80-100 miles east of the Florida coast, teasing this board for days with model runs of a major into Miami-Jacksonville somewhere, then end up actually going across the NC outer banks… haha. I think our first US threat will be a gulf system. All models are forecasting an active west Caribbean gyre, even the Euro without explicitly developing it. This seems very likely as we get into the heart of hurricane season to produce at least a TS that would threaten the gulf coast and this idea has been getting plenty of ensemble love. In a La Niña year this is a very common mode for storm formation, and I think as we get further into the season we will see several threats originate from the west Caribbean moving N/NW into the gulf. As for the AEWs, that stable dry air must be overcome. Notice even the GFS is representing the feedback from this stable dry mid level layer by holding off real development until the waves are approaching the Bahamas. The HP setup over the Atlantic is extremely favorable for east coast threats. What does come off the African coast very likely will end up far enough west to be a problem. I believe, still, that the pool of dry air recirculating in the MDR will take a few waves to moisten up and allow development further east. However, the SAL west of roughly the West Indies (60 degrees) is significantly less of a factor and anything making it this far will have a real chance of development. Low Shear and water temps at peak season levels mean anything that survives the hostile MDR will develop. I think after around the 26th-27th we will have our first potential trouble in this area and at a minimum it will pose a threat to the southeast. Long story short, I expect our first US threat to be something that forms out of the west Caribbean gyre, followed by something in the SW Atlantic thar probably won’t get it’s act together until it crosses 60 west. Which wave that will be is unknown. Those two areas will be our focal points through the first part of September. I expect a true MDR system in the first 5-8 days of September.

Lol what? It got shredded this morning and is just an open wave… I’m honestly shocked they designed this as a PTC. Maybe I’m wrong and this blows up to a 35-40 kt micro TS right before landfall but this is not the look of something developing. It’s had nice convective flare ups for days and I did think that strong MLC meant it could take off after the peninsula but it got sheared this morning and now has <24 hrs to do anything and looks like it’s going through a convective minimum at the moment. Tiny system though, these are hard to forecast especially if you’re talking the difference between a 30 kt wave and a 40 kt TS. Name is the only difference at this point

Believe 99L has hit the shear factory. I thought it was further north than it was until the mid level center got exposed last night. Getting clobbered by shear this morning. Next.

You can see the shear affecting the cloud tops west of it. Imo it would need to be further north to offset that pocket of shear, which may be retrograding SW, but it’ll be close

I willed it to an Invest

I’m really not sure why the system over the Yucatán has not been designated as an Invest yet. Looks to me if it emerges off the coast in the same condition it’s currently in it would develop quickly. I don’t see a lot of shear in that part of the Gulf and it is in a favorable area for quick spinups. I saw they increased it to 30% of developing over the next couple days. I may even go higher than that. Unless it dies off overnight while over land

It does have “the look” of one that might develop. I’m honestly shocked models haven’t really picked up on it. Seems to be more organized than any modeling would indicate at this point.

Beating a dead horse about this on every seasonal thread this time of year, but long range operationals are only good for glancing at their simulated patterns and not worth latching onto specific system fodder. That being anything 200 hrs out especially. The ensemble suites are far better for eyeballing potential systems that have not developed yet. That being said, it does look like things are about to come alive, right on cue. It still looks like things will become more favorable after the 21st. And there is notable low-shear envelopes across the basin to play with. We shall see. GEFS vs EPS. Battle of the titans

False Start penalty- GFS. 5 yards repeat 3rd down… I never bought into developing that lead wave as I mentioned earlier, it will take several waves to moisten up and allow something organized to make it across the MDR. It is just that hostile right now. Euro is about as dry a look as you can get and the EPS ensembles certainly seem to have backed off. I don’t think the MDR season gets going until the 27th, or 10 days from now. The gulf systems, well you try predicting a wave in late August in the gulf. It could either end up a cat 5 or a cluster of showers… That’s hard to predict until you actually have the system in the Gulf and an idea what the upper level winds will do. I don’t trust modeling outside 5 days for anything that’s not already developed as it pertains to the GOM

Yep. Buckle up. Season incoming. May not live up to hyperactive expectations but the look beginning in a week, complete with a blocking high across the Atlantic, means land interaction is higher than normal. I’d focus on SW gulf areas and east coast through first week of September as possible areas for TC impact. Too much troughiness/shear in northern gulf but I am increasingly worried for the Carolina’s. Going to be praying for some recurved in a couple weeks

A lot of high rain chances (60-70%) for just 0.06”. Feels like a bit of a forecast bust at least for the immediate triangle area. Cool temps are phenomenal though! High of 76 yesterday and similar today, wow

The last week of August has consistently been shown to become more active per the ensembles. Do not live and die by individual GFS runs. This tropical season feels more like watching a potential southeast snowstorm on these boards…

Part of me wants August to officially go 0-0-0 then have September explode. Would be a very interesting analog to have in our back pocket in the coming years By explode I don’t mean I want death and destruction, but activity to track from a meteorological sense. I know there would be pushback to that statement so here’s your disclaimer