Bob's Burgers

Debris ball (60+ dbz) on the jackson radar. Vrot around 70 knots now. 

Vrot approaching 65 knots now... getting serious 

Southern MS storm is probably our best shot at a long-track tornado, at least so far today

yazoo city fixin' to get hit again

Nice TDS out of Gary/Rolling Fork

SRH coming at around 900 out KJAN VAD using local obs and storm motion out of the tornado warming from the Monroe/Fairbanks tornado complex 

Gate to Gate shear near 200 knots

Absolutely massive debris ball in Fairbanks right now

Fairbanks

Major tornado going through Fairbanks AND Monroe

Multiple couplets near monroe now

Just now, jojo762 said:

Suppose given CAM solutions/uncertainties the only way we were going to get a high risk was if we were in the midst of numerous discrete cells... perhaps at 20z.

Sorta like 4/28/14

I don't know if my eyes are playing games on me, but it looks like a cell is trying to emerge from the line near Monroe -->

Something to consider is the placement of the qlcs right now vs where there 15z hrrr pegged it in its 2 hour forecast -- real obs would suggest this line is moving much faster than the HRRR forecast, limiting warm sector opportunity for open sector supercells. jmo

Jackson VWP 1606z

Any chance this line breaks up into cells like the April 15th 2011 event? 

New tornado on the ground near Heflin

70+ knots of Vrot on the first stout QLCS tor

Jackson

Lake Charles:

Here's what I mean 

Just now, StormySquares said:

04 HRRR would be the start of a new trend, it's pretty different from even 03z. If 05,06,07,ect continue this, that's a bad look for north central MS/AL

It's worth looking into. 0z 5 hour radar forecast vs reality was a major bust already. Latest HRRR is taking in current radar data and adjusting. We'll see how it plays out. Obs game from here really. 

Notice how much cleaner UH is on this run as well -->