Bob's Burgers

Rick rolled.

HRRRV4 paints a more interesting image; possibility of strong boundary huggers possible

That is not an innocent squall line 

I hate to say this, but I'm worried about the nocturnal tornado potential again with this system. Large area of EHI in the 3-5 range well after 0z Monday.

43 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

No sarcasm, I was actually asking a legitimate question

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Very impressive critical angle

We may not see anything like this again for several years

2.25 miles wide 

Bunch of new data points added to DAT; several EF-4 tree damage points added

17 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Wonder what's taking so long to get final survey on Bassfield EF4. Curious if final width will be greater than 2mi and if they bumped wind speeds up

Wind speeds already increased to at least 178 mph per DAT data, the path width is more interesting at this point since it's in record territory (already has the state record)

UKmet soundings out of Louisiana Sunday

also, hrrrv4 is back on COD, so get ready for 48 hour HRRR forecasts haha

30 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

That is from 6z though...

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yeah i mean the 12z gfs wasn't far enough out yet so i had use that 06z gfs. 12z gfs looks less impressive than the 06z gfs for sure

9 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Trend to watch is the placement of the low... Further North is climbs, more severe the chance

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here's the spread so far

 ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 160845
   SPC AC 160845

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0345 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2020

   Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Models have come into better agreement depicting a shortwave trough
   moving quickly from TX Sunday/D4 morning to GA by 12Z Monday/D5. Low
   pressure is forecast to develop over the Red River during the day
   Sunday, shifting east toward the lower MS Valley by 00Z. Ahead of
   the low, a warm front will lift north across the Gulf Coast states,
   with upper 60s F dewpoints likely into central MS, AL, and GA, with
   low 70s F along the coast. MUCAPE to at least 2000 J/kg is likely by
   18Z from TX into AL, with strong westerly winds aloft and 500 mb
   temperatures on the order of -10 to -12 C. 

   Storms are forecast to form relatively early over east TX, where the
   environment will support large hail and damaging winds. Supercells
   are possible initially, with an eventual MCS likely. A tornado or
   two will be possible despite marginal low-level shear. Meanwhile to
   the east, warm advection may support supercells well ahead of the
   MCS across MS, AL, GA, producing a tornado or two along with hail. 

   The primary severe risk in terms of coverage will likely be an MCS
   tied to the surface low as it quickly moves along the east-west
   instability gradient across LA, MS, AL and into GA. Significant
   convective feedback is present in the models, supporting the notion
   of a well-defined MCS with damaging winds. While SRH will not be
   very strong initially, it should increase after 00Z, with enhanced
   wind and/or tornado potential. The corridor of maximum threat will
   likely be adjusted in later outlooks.

embedded supercell rating from SC in

3 minutes ago, JasonOH said:

I wonder if they can only do the lower bound of DOD10 without a review to determine the actual wind speed. 

I think to go DOD10 upper bound, they have to bring in another team to survey it. Maybe some local engineers as well. 

Looks like the wind speed will be increased to at least 178 mph based off DAT