mattie g

One thing that’s giving me the warm fuzzies is that we see a great look up top develop within 10 days from now and not really relent through the remainder of the run. Looking at the GEFS, we see the -AO and -NAO and a decent look on the Pacific side, as well. It'll suck if we don’t score in the next couple weeks, but if we can set this as the base atmospheric state for the season then we WILL score sooner rather than later.

Someone in my neighborhood posted on Facebook that there were flurries earlier. I'm sitting in the second-floor home office right by the window and haven't seen anything. Of course, I'm too dedicated a worker to have more than a few cursory looks outside, so I leave it to all the slackers out there to report for me.

Or you can put him on ignore. Just sayin'...

Not December yet.

As soon as you see the back edge on the radar.

I understand the take that we have seemed to turn milder around the solstice in the recent past, but I think using the word "clear" when referring to the pattern we'll be in four weeks from today is fraught with danger. You could be right and we do turn warmer, but I honestly think it's a toss up this far out.

This place really can be the worst.

So...on November 30, you're saying that it's clear that we're going to change to warmer around Christmastime? I just want to be sure I'm reading you right...that we're clear on what the temperature regime will be about four weeks from now.

BWI: 17” DCA: 9” IAD: 19” RIC: 9” Tiebreaker SBY: 7”

Aside from Wednesday and Thursday, it’s been in the 70s with sun for the last week here in HHI, and it looks to continue well into next week. Really can’t be beat.

Gotta admit...I've never been so disinterested in/unconcerned with long-range winter outlooks than I am this year. It just feels like the new regime we're in means that we can't rely on so many of the lessons learned in the last 50 years. Interesting exercise for the long-rangers, no doubt, but I just can't get into worrying about it.

And then we call the doctor.

AO is positive. No cold. Next. Unless...the storm creates its own cold! I'm in!

I’ve forgotten what I used to look like.

TL;DR

Brasileira lounging in the sand.

I honestly haven't bothered looking. Does it really matter any more?

I understand that it's fun to analyze and prognosticate, so I'm not sh*tting on anything anyone comes up with in regards to their personal forecasts, but... I feel like the last few winters have really frustrated the long-rangers. Blame it on whatever you want to blame it on, but I simply can't trust analogs and/or long-range modeling any more. Nina, Nino, Nada, blocking, no blocking, solar, PNA, EPO, AO, whatever...winter is completely up in the air. We won't know sh*t until it's pretty much on top of us.

Pretty sure I’ve mentioned this before on the boards, but I was in Lewisburg, PA that year. I remember heading up there from South Jersey after winter break on one of the coldest days of that winter, and Philly was covered in ice and steam from all the buildings - like a scene from a Soviet factory city on the Volga or something. We seemingly got snow after snow after snow, with an icing here and there for good measure. Not sure what we ended up with, but it had to have been 75”, give or take 10” or so. There was fairly deep snow on the ground for weeks and weeks on end - an absolutely unreal stretch of weather that I’m glad to have experienced.

It’s more unlikely than likely that anyone here will see an 09-10 equivalent in this area again, but it’s not at all impossible.

The one year I choose to go with late picks...

None were even close except Dulles.

I may be mistaken, but I feel like that hasn't been the case the last couple years...that Richmond's first freeze was near the same time as DC's.

Taking the over for 90% of the mentioned areas.

Every year, my guesses end up being far too early in the season, so I'm going to push it out a little this go-round... BWI: 11/15 IAD: 11/15 DCA: 12/2 RIC: 12/1 Tiebreaker: 9.2"