I understand that it's fun to analyze and prognosticate, so I'm not sh*tting on anything anyone comes up with in regards to their personal forecasts, but...
I feel like the last few winters have really frustrated the long-rangers. Blame it on whatever you want to blame it on, but I simply can't trust analogs and/or long-range modeling any more. Nina, Nino, Nada, blocking, no blocking, solar, PNA, EPO, AO, whatever...winter is completely up in the air. We won't know sh*t until it's pretty much on top of us.