NW_of_GYX

1 hour ago, Lava Rock said:

that blows. 

may be our biggest snowfall of Feb 

12 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Some EPS members look good

care to share?

I don’t hate the 12z euro. Too far west for mby verbatim but looks so much better than the strung out mess it’s been showing the last few days 

operational runs of the GFS just want nothing to do with spring after a brief warm up middle of next week. Tossed for now. 

12z GEFS has a much more coherent cluster of lows tracking over the Cape into the GOM Friday night into Saturday morning. See if we can get the euro to follow suit 

12z GFS will suck some posters back in

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro looks like ass even north. 

6z was actually a big improvement

looks like garbage. Running out of can to kick

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

To me, it’s actually been an incredible winter given the departures.  I don’t think most folks understand what sustained +8 is for a departure.

February currently sits at +11.2 at MVL.  People die in July at +11.2 and here we are running snow cover daily at a “departure torch.”

Not that different from last year except it was even warmer here and we had more snow to date. 

38 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Snorkeling tours go out daily during vacation week.

Omg yes 

Northern greens doing northern greens things. Love it. 

GFS has more or less been locked onto two waves starting with the 23rd/24th with a follow up on the 25th. All operational models offer plenty to track over the next 7-10 days. Gotta think something will work out for NNE in this period. 
 

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

That 12z GFS run would be perfect for the areas that still winter.

Great run. Mutes the torch as well 

EPS not backing down. Check back on Monday rather than pull hair out over the weekend. 

Also interesting to see CMC and GFS carbon copies at 12z with the follow up clipper on the 25th.

Last night was a massive bust here....0.6" on a forecast of 3-4". Great to see the northern greens doing their thing. 

Looking forward to 2-4" tonight. Midcoast maine should do great in tonight's system. They do the best with with these IVTs and easterly fetch off the GOM. Wouldn't be surprised to see a 6+ spot somewhere from Brunswick to rockland

Really can’t hate the EPS mean for late next week. 

snow tomorrow, track next week, warm up end of Feb into early March, hope we get another chance later into March. In this regime it’s always going to be easier to forecast warmth and highly anomalous warmth is worth discussing. But I’ve yet to see a troll forecast a snow storm. 

30 minutes ago, dryslot said:

In other news, Not that i buy it, But the 18z HRRR has a 3-6"+ swath up here in CNE/NNE, And thats on the 10:1 map, Should be higher ratios with this so Kuchera probably a better fit.

 

Caveats apply to HRRR at this lead but verbatim it's how these typically work here. I wouldn't say the NAMs are on board at 18z yet. Can't remember the last time we had a system like this, don't think we had one verify last year. 

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't believe that was an "assertion" to be taken as an aver of fact.   He's not that stupid - no...people are being too sensitive. 

It was a tongue in cheek sardonic poke at the predicament of it.  That's how I read it. That's how it should have been read. 

lol. Trolls are gonna troll and they should expect to be called out for trolling. That's how it's worked on internet forums since the first caveman said "anyone out there?" on MS DOS. Also how do I know he's not that stupid when he literally says stupid things

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Folks are trying to create their own attribution models ... 

This is the point. Discuss the science behind those assertions of attribution. Forky is right about the expanding IPWP, it will and has effected our climate here and the evidence suggests it will not favor sustained cold weather. His assertion that we will never experience another sustained winter pattern in the NE is where his ulterior motives become clear.  

27 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

climate change pushed the west pac past an MJO tipping point and sustained good winter patterns will be harder to achieve and less frequent 

Fixed it for you, c’mon man you’re a met have some integrity and commitment to the science instead of trolling people trying to enjoy a hobby. Sad 

Active on the 12z op with a gradient pattern out towards end of the month. That kind of fits my thinking here, chances through the end of the month with up and in and NNE favored, warm up early March as we build a ridge out west and then maybe another chance after first week of March as the ridge erodes - hopefully we avoid another PAC jet extension to ruin a better 500mb pattern after the first week of March.  

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

NAM shows maybe .15-.2 for up here.  That could be 2-4"   I'm eager to see what other meso guidance gives later today and overnight.

Love it. You’re a true weenie Mahk, single-handedly keeping the vibes positive in here while the Debbie’s have their day 

I’ll be tracking right into April for the mountains to my NW. weeklies, ensembles, shmegma won’t change that 

9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

15-16 I remember the County getting totally wiped out in the beginning of presidents week, with a warm monster Rainer, that took em down to grass.  They recovered a couple weeks later, and I went up and got a decent trip in actually on March 5th.  But that was my only trip that winter.  So it sucked that year too. 

Big gradient that year in the St John valley. I went up to Ft Kent for work last week of March and there was no snow on the ground through Ashland and then boom as soon as you can over the hill on 11 past eagle lake it was full on winter with deep pack. Snowed 7” first day we were there and we managed to sneak out of work and ski the t bar at Lonsome pines in the best conditions I had all year on March 29.