NW_of_GYX

NAMs are fun to look at for NNE elevated areas Thursday-Friday. 

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

12z GFS, lolz

If there’s a way not to snow this season that will verify. Toss anything sig far and wide until it’s within 48 hrs and even then 

Thursday/Friday starting to look interesting. Let’s get it inside 100hrs, haven’t been able to do that here since January 

52 but feels much warmer in the sun. Killer afternoon at the hill. Love days like this




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46 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Wow, that's an ugly mid month for those into early diagnostics ... lot of moving parts to consider.

At a step back perspective, there's a clear climate precedence for post early warm episodes, to see the materialization of a -NAO.   When looking at the overnight layouts from all three majors .. there's hints of that taking place, so seeing as it matches said climate precedence ...

The first most obvious detraction about this outlook would be the D12 distance ... It's really beyond the "confidence horizon" at that range.   However ( again ), the historical inference: said outlook fits the motif of mild to warm (relative to season, and by pattern recognition) in the foreground, evolving into -NAO.   So we wait.

That trough I annotated slipping underneath is of Pacific origin.  It's been gaining coherence ... despite the long range.  This complicates matters ... if a more aggressive emergence of the NAO transpires ( which I believe is well within the 'realistic' probability envelope ), it could either evolve into a suppressive influence ... or something more ideal where it loads cold into Ontario but doesn't interfere ( negatively) with the wave space as it is forced S of our latitude.  This latter scenario sets the stage for ...

The sun, working into an 'elastically taut' hemisphere aching for a reason to normalize gradients because of normal seasonal forcing, together with back ground ... this whole evolution above is going to be getting whacked around a bit in future guidance. 

 

 

 

I have one eye half way open for that period. 

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I need another 12" to tie 2015-16 which is the worse.

I don’t remember well enough and wasn’t taking records then. I just recall that December being an unbelievable torch, even torchier than this one. But maybe I’m wrong. There must have been a decent stretch in that year if you got to 50”. I just don’t remember it. 
 
 

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I spent the last 4 weeks in NW Maine where there was snow.

All time rat. Still think 15-16 was worse here though. Anyone have temp departures for DJF that year? 

.5" 
At least the skiing was good and got a cool undercast. Still snow in the woods and my yard has full pack but this week will finish off a lot of it.
I'm now at 40" on the season. Weirdly this winter still feels better than 15-16 somehow. Maybe because Nov-December was also a full on torch that year and I don't remember anything that year as good as the January stretch we had this year, which accounts for almost 75% of my snowfall to date. We had some snow in November and early December this year which probably helps to put this year just slightly above 15-16. The three seasons following 15-16 all had above average snow, we can hope for next year and beyond. 



 
 
 

1 hour ago, Lava Rock said:

that blows. 

may be our biggest snowfall of Feb 

12 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Some EPS members look good

care to share?

I don’t hate the 12z euro. Too far west for mby verbatim but looks so much better than the strung out mess it’s been showing the last few days 

operational runs of the GFS just want nothing to do with spring after a brief warm up middle of next week. Tossed for now. 

12z GEFS has a much more coherent cluster of lows tracking over the Cape into the GOM Friday night into Saturday morning. See if we can get the euro to follow suit 

12z GFS will suck some posters back in

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro looks like ass even north. 

6z was actually a big improvement

looks like garbage. Running out of can to kick

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

To me, it’s actually been an incredible winter given the departures.  I don’t think most folks understand what sustained +8 is for a departure.

February currently sits at +11.2 at MVL.  People die in July at +11.2 and here we are running snow cover daily at a “departure torch.”

Not that different from last year except it was even warmer here and we had more snow to date. 

38 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Snorkeling tours go out daily during vacation week.

Omg yes 

Northern greens doing northern greens things. Love it. 

GFS has more or less been locked onto two waves starting with the 23rd/24th with a follow up on the 25th. All operational models offer plenty to track over the next 7-10 days. Gotta think something will work out for NNE in this period. 
 

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

That 12z GFS run would be perfect for the areas that still winter.

Great run. Mutes the torch as well 

EPS not backing down. Check back on Monday rather than pull hair out over the weekend. 

Also interesting to see CMC and GFS carbon copies at 12z with the follow up clipper on the 25th.

Last night was a massive bust here....0.6" on a forecast of 3-4". Great to see the northern greens doing their thing. 

Looking forward to 2-4" tonight. Midcoast maine should do great in tonight's system. They do the best with with these IVTs and easterly fetch off the GOM. Wouldn't be surprised to see a 6+ spot somewhere from Brunswick to rockland

Really can’t hate the EPS mean for late next week. 

snow tomorrow, track next week, warm up end of Feb into early March, hope we get another chance later into March. In this regime it’s always going to be easier to forecast warmth and highly anomalous warmth is worth discussing. But I’ve yet to see a troll forecast a snow storm.