NW_of_GYX

Nice Feb 17th thunderstorm just rolled through the mountains of western Maine. 

This has been a sneaky good week of skiing so far, cold enough at night for things to set up, warm enough by first chair to get that first layer to soften up a bit. Not corn either, just a totally ripping surface that lasts till about noon. Of course with weekend traffic it will by bye bye around 10 am. Helps that a lot of resorts have the guns on in anticipation of a gnarly start to vacation week. It's seasons like this that remind me that even if we warm another 2c globally, we will still be skiing in the northeast. 

Le massif reporting 10". Continues to be an excellent snow year for the big PQ cities. I look forward to a winter where we don't warm sector every storm and congrats QC. 

Just now, Lava Rock said:

Looks pretty warm in jackman

Sure does, but their system is mostly on roads. You want to be riding on the roads this season. Trails just never froze up and won't. If you don't mind trailering a little further, erroll and nash stream are the closest areas where a lot of the trail miles are on roads. But you'd have to register in NH, yet another reason I rent!

1 minute ago, Lava Rock said:

Was thinking of riding that way tomorrow , but not sure what today's damage will do. Might be better off going to Andover if my friend gets his sled fixed.

I've seen some pretty gnarly photos of water bars on local trails. There will be folks riding no doubt but for the sake of your sled go further north. 

12 minutes ago, SkiMagicVT said:

Hi all, I am a long time lurker, respect all of the insight on here tremendously. Curious what everyone is thinking about next weekend’s storm? Any chance S. VT sees snow out of that or DOA in cutter city? Thanks.

That system will cut, nothing there to stop it. Best you can hope for is to cut even further west and avoid the big precip but even that is looking unlikely. Cold modeled behind it, that weekend could be one of the worst ski weekends of the year. Don't want to burst your bubble, but that's what I'm seeing.  

1 minute ago, Lava Rock said:

this winter blows a bag of **cks. I understand SNE's frustration, but it's been pretty crappy in our area. I'd grade it a D so far. We were fortunate to get 30" last month in a short time period, but winter this season looks like it'll amount to 4-6wks depending on how you define it.

I mean I still have over 12" on the ground, more in shady spots. It's hard for me to give it a D when we're well on our way to snowfall climo, but if this pattern holds through first week of March then I'll be downgrading quickly. This isn't 15-16 snowfall wise, but temp wise it's not far behind. I'm having a hard time buying a late season flip to a colder pattern but could imagine another stretch like we had in Jan. This season is good reminder for me why I don't own snowmobiles, just rent when the mood/season strikes.  

13 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Not here.  Both March and April had AN temps, and the 2-month total of 10.2" was less than half of the 21.3" average.  CAR did better, with Mar/Apr total of 30.3" compared to the 28.9" average.

Ya the crown up to Gaspe cleaned up in that stretch last year. Gaspe was absolutely buried. Not that different from the tenor of this season (or 21' or 20' for that matter, although 20' did produce a nice event last week of March after an early torch) either. Rangeley was melted even worse by late March in 21'. 

1 minute ago, Lava Rock said:

the way we're rolling, we'll be melted out within 2wks

I don't doubt it. Feb vacation week is coming up in 2 weeks, and just like xmas vacation week you can count on terrible skiing and snow conditions. At this point you almost hope for sun and runs at 50s that week or else it will be pretty miserable for the folks on vacation. Just seems like it's impossible to get a low underneath us this winter. With that said, we realistically have 8 more weeks of threat watching here and I expect a few more events to produce but we'll struggle to reach climo unless we get another stretch like in Jan. 

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Did NNE score 

We were totally melted out by third week in March. As it goes sometimes, the last week of March and first of April produced for elevated NNE (along with some rain) but it was toast here after March 6th or so. 

1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said:

Depends on what happens in the week to 10 days following from my perspective. I want it to melt out if it’s going to get really warm next week. Then we can start over again for a little late season run. If it’s not going to get warm for long, but I would hope for a net gain from this week.

It’s early Feb. My winter is just starting. Only thing I don’t mind melting right now are SNE snow weenies. I can see why you’re ready for a melt though, just drove over the kanc and it’s a different world on the west side of the whites. Me to conway is still buried but Lincoln and campton will be melted out by early next week. Plenty of snow above 2000’ on the kanc though. 

 

6 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I dunno.  This could end up warm but maybe we’ll radiate we’d night and stay frozen?

Not expecting much but can’t deny the classic CAD signal. 3” thump to drizzle would be a win in This pattern 

For those of us in CAD land the euro and gfs are starting to come into agreement for Thursday. Looking like a net gainer type deal for now. 
 

-17 wind is howling. Just stepped out to the wood shed and it’s pretty exhilarating. Nice night to sit next to the stove. 

53 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Ha, I’m at tea pond camps, Started with a meatball and a white claw

Great spot, rode into there a few years ago from Stratton. About as good as it gets for trailside food and drinks. 

1 minute ago, tamarack said:

That line seems way too slanted.  Ignoring the zero pips (since those years also have them in the group area) the line probably ought to start at about 115 and drop to the low-mid 90s.  A 3-week shift is significant, but that line shows about 7 weeks.

Agreed. The 3 week shift is aligned with ice out trends statewide. Give or take 10 days on either side of the season. 

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I've posted on the late 1940s/early 1950s winters in here before...those are some of the warmest years on record even if not quite as warm as the most recent warm winter...but esp up into SE NH and ME. Maine actually had 7 consecutive winters from '48-'49 through '54-'55 with temps +2 or higher than the long term avg....they haven't had a streak like that since....not even recently.

There is just so much memory bias when it comes to big cold and big snow. The trends are all around us, we are getting warmer, but attributing seasonal anomalies to CC is disingenuous. I try to tell that to my very liberal friends and family and they look at me like I'm benedict arnold. There are not a whole lot of people around here who can remember that stretch in the 40s 50s clearly, but there are many who have vivid memories of cold periods in the 60s and 70s and that's what they compare every winter to. 

Sebago Lake is quite the sight right now, freezing spray and slush waves everywhere. Car thermometer is at -4. Made me think of this ice out date chart for the Lake. The points on the x axis are dates when the big bay didn't freeze. The clusters in the last two decades will surprise no one, but interesting to note the cluster in the 40's and 50's, which others here have noted was not a good winter stretch. Take the data pre 1900 with a grain of salt as well. 

Strong signal from op gfs for another good period of orographic snows into mid next week. Euro not quite as robust. We’re into bread and butter season it seems!

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Snow keeps coming.  Another fluffer this afternoon.  Snow boards didn't accumulate much but it seemed real deep above 3,000ft board level on top of Gondola.  That top 500 feet was fluffed.

I posted late last week that I thought favored upslope spots could do 6-12” during this period. Where are you at since last Friday? 

Just an absolutely stunning perfect mid winter ski day exactly how you script it. 




.

3” of Utah snow overnight. Nice little over performer. Incredible scene out there this morning. I’m at 45” on the season, about 55% of climo. 

This has been a really nice wintry stretch going back to the 4” we had around mid month. 

7 minutes ago, alex said:

Snowing pretty well, approaching 1”

Yup, almost an inch here too. Hovering around 31. 

This week is quiet but next week could have some trackable events starting with Monday 2/6. Also nothing to stop Friday from trending N so worth watching for SNE.