NW_of_GYX

Pretty cool to loop the radar and watch it fill in over the last couple of hours. Really gets the weenie in me going.

Dumping here, really good rates still. Not sure how much but it’s skiing like 4-6”




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A fantastic day for pow farming in them thar hills. This is what winter in NNE is all about! 





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For the three of us who care, Euro and GEM want to make Thursday the bigger impact for here than Tuesday. 

38 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Sleet bomb too but areas that stay snow would be crippling verbatim.

That’s a monster. Interesting to see how Thursday evolves for here as well. GEM is amped, could be nothing, could be something. Fun times tracking ahead. 

1” round 2, 7” total 

Snow, 16 degrees. Deep winter has returned. 

to make matters worse for SR, SB, Loaf skiers, I wonder if there will be wind hold issues tomorrow. 

Friday will be cool and breezy, but other than a few snow
showers in the mountains, much of the wintry precip will have
exited. NW winds will be quite bitter, with wind chills not
escaping the single digits or teens despite air temps in the
20s. This will be especially apparent on the higher summits
where gusts to 35 or 40 mph will be possible with wind chills
falling well below zero. While freezing rain accretion is
expected to be light Thurs night, the combination of additional
weight on branches plus quick uptick in winds Friday morning
could lead to some isolated power outages in central/southern
NH.

This was GYX through 7 pm tonight. That's a pretty bad bust for the mountains of western Maine. It happens.

8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Agreed.  Also depends if tonight's round is included in those though too.

Like this is what the GFS has from 12pm today onward.  I always was including the second round in the forecast but I looked at BTV ended their initial forecast this afternoon which wouldn't include this stuff.  I think most of the ski areas can get another 2-4" tonight... but the northern tier busted badly last night.  CoCoRAHS around Jay Peak was only 1-2" on both stations.

 

Ya, with better than 10:1 loaf and SB could do 4-7" tonight. In which case the bust wouldn't be so bad, but I'm guessing there was a lot of disappointed skiers this morning who were expecting to wake up to 8-12". Hopefully for folks on vacation they wake up to a surprise tomorrow.

round one was a pretty bad busted forecast to my north. Saddleback reporting 2" and SR 4". Both of their comms teams were riding the 8-12 forecast hard the past 36 hours. I'm just not sure where anyone was seeing those amounts, only a few models were showing more than an inch of qpf in those areas and 12z runs from yesterday were more like .5 -.6". Overall a pretty bad model and forecast fail. 

I’m about 63% of climo atm. Gonna need a few of these next systems to work to get there this year. 

6” from round 1. Let’s see if round 2 can get me into warning criteria. No complaints here, great powder skiing this morning and clean up was a breeze, stuff is very light. Nice little storm. 

No changes 

33 minutes ago, dryslot said:

PC skies right now, Going to have some dry air to overcome initially 36/11°F

Clouds just moved in here quickly, should be your way soon. 

18z gfs brings the good qpf further north. Goal posts tightening. 

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Mesos vs globals right now

Correct. And as some mets have already noted, the synoptic solutions the Nam suite had earlier didn't make sense. The 18z starts what looks to be a trend south. A lot of hand wringing here from folks who look to walk away with a nice little snow storm. 

18z NAM

lava gonna meh his way to 8"

1 minute ago, Lava Rock said:

I'll take 6-8" vs the euro's 4".

2 minutes ago, tunafish said:

How far north are those torched mid-levels on the NAM?  Asking for a backyard near me.

farther north than you are

Fom GYX AFD: 

The NAM is particularly bullish but we can`t discount it since it has done
well with temperature profiles in these southwest flow aloft
overunning scenarios.

goal posts are there. I like where I am in the middle of them. 6-8 would be great since it hasn't snowed here in almost a month. 

Nice Feb 17th thunderstorm just rolled through the mountains of western Maine. 

This has been a sneaky good week of skiing so far, cold enough at night for things to set up, warm enough by first chair to get that first layer to soften up a bit. Not corn either, just a totally ripping surface that lasts till about noon. Of course with weekend traffic it will by bye bye around 10 am. Helps that a lot of resorts have the guns on in anticipation of a gnarly start to vacation week. It's seasons like this that remind me that even if we warm another 2c globally, we will still be skiing in the northeast. 

Le massif reporting 10". Continues to be an excellent snow year for the big PQ cities. I look forward to a winter where we don't warm sector every storm and congrats QC.