NW_of_GYX

This is trending windier than last system for mby but also more frozen and less warm sector. NAM keeps me frozen basically whole way through. 7” will get me to 2’ on the week, seems like outside shot of making it there. 

Other than the bs clean up on Wednesday not a bad stretch and more or less will catch me up to climo. 

Coastal flooding is concerning. Mainers are tough but the last 24 months has really tested our states emergency preparedness. 

another 4-6" of slop incoming and then warm sector. Not sure it helps local trails here unless we get some cold nights, hopefully that happens next week. Nice base builder for skiing however.  

I don’t think a branch moved here. No wind to speak of. 

8.5” before the changeover. We pinged hard between 3-4 am. Most miserable snow clearing ever. Just so much water. I gave up and will let it drain 

Pouring snow, over 4” now 

What a massive storm this is, from Havana to James bay. 

Heavy snow, 2.5”

Nothing like 7” 7:1 snow with an inch of water added to it for good measure. Should be a joy to clean up. 

Just measured 8” cold smoke so we’ll hit the low end of the GYX range, not sure about double digits but we’re under a little weenie band right now. Radar drops off quick to my north.

 Photo from about 1 pm today




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From GYX AFD for the 10th:

The system`s cold front/occlusion reaching the coast will likely kick off secondary cyclogenesis there, providing a mechanism to support a CAD in the western Maine mountains and lakes/foothills region southeast of the mountains... at least initially.

Overall I`m expecting this to be a more wintry storm than other strong, dynamic storms experienced this season thus far with some real winners (foot-plus) possible across the mountains in terms of snowfall. But, there still remains potential for heavy rainfall rates which could lead to some hydrological issues...and significant uncertainty as to how the rain/snow line will
develop. It appears as though winds will again be a widespread concern, though perhaps not to the degree (and very likely not to the duration) of Dec 18. This is certainly the storm to track
for widespread, significant impacts during this forecast
period. Stay tuned.

13th no bueno verbatim but at this point just glad to see it there still

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

What does it look like for the rest of the area? Is it just the northern New England deal or is it look like it could be something for Southern New England as well?

gives the berks some front end snow but that's about it. Others have said that this is still worth watching for SNE but I would hedge against that. This one's for NNE IMO, and it may be for far NNE. time will tell

high doesn't retreat as fast and helps the cold press, similar to earlier runs before yesterdays melt. I expect this to waffle some more but today's trends are undeniable 

GFS coming in colder for the 10th, looks more like euro. Whites crushed on the front end

let's get that weenie fronto band back to my hood on sunday afternoon. 3k and HRRR aligned with two areas of heaviest QPF. 

3 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

How does that pattern not also have a +PNA? Looks weird...

dumps the core of the negative height anomalies further west as the block retrogrades

stealing snow on that HRRR run. Good thing for the SNE weenies that model stinks at this lead

others have mentioned already but that is a real deal -epo dump on the eps mid month. Winter arrives in that period for some of the spots in the lower 48 that have been so mild this season, SW Montana especially. 

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS is definitely a really nice look for mid-month. Let’s hope it sticks. 

Yup, great look at this lead

I like the 13th period. GEFS mean cuts to the lakes but it's been very consistent on the OP runs except for a few runs yesterday. Transfers the low to the benchmark, cold air in Canada, I like that period for a region wide event. 

35 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That is actually the first time the Euro has had any CAD signature for this one, That would really set the stage with the pasty look and then hard freeze that before the one on the 13th, It would be off to the races.

I mentioned yesterday it would be a few days before models had a handle on the CAD. That's a decently cold airmass in place prior and had the look of something models would underestimate until we got closer in. 

1 minute ago, alex said:

Do they? I thought we were looking at 40s and 2” of rain

Im thinking longfellows like saddleback and sugarloaf. Whites not so much but it could change 

We’ve been on a remarkable string of these epic cutters going back to the Dec 20’ grinch event. It looks like dog shit as modeled but we’re still 5 days away. The mountains to my NW look to net gain and avoid getting washed away like they did 3 weeks ago at least. 

Yup, it's been consistent for days. 6 days out though and I suspect it will be a while before we get a handle on the strength of any CAD and timing of any secondary SLP. I'd feel good in the western Maine mountains and northern Maine. It snows where it should snow. SNE never had a shot at this. 

she gone for SNE. Still think we can make this work in my hood and points north. Too bad we've lost that earlier transfer on all models. Plenty of time to trend in the right direction though