NW_of_GYX

Nice to see the 13th-14th back on the GFS op. Would like to see some ensemble support for that. 

qp mega says that once the block retrogrades it connects with the SE ridge and we cut anyways. It always cuts in qd jamega's forecasts. Hopefully he wrong. 

25 minutes ago, dryslot said:

3' of snow between the 7th-13th up here on the CMC.............lol

weenie GFS run for these parts as well. What a monster out there in clown range on the CMC for the 13th-14th. GFS lost that system but maybe it comes back. 

We had a nice 3 week stretch that started last year on Jan 6. Can we do it again? 

Euro is gross but still think the 10th is the system to watch for NNE. Nice to see the follow up wave on the 14th still modeled out there in clown range 

Still think the 10th has best potential for NNE. Take my chances at this latitude with a high to the north and cold air lurking. Don’t like suppressed looks

Let’s get some frost in the ground and then get that primary slp to transfer like the 12z gfs op shows for the 11th and then do it again on the 15th. Source region vastly improved by that point. 
 

That was the best run we’ve seen in a while for winter in the NE. 

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Hey if you go above normal again…what’s the gripe?  I’ll sign for that in a heartbeat.  

From my perspective, none. Last year was the best skiing we’ve had locally since 18-19. The local snomo clubs on the other hand struggled with warm ground and water bars all season despite the AN snowfall. They could really use some help after the last few seasons, my area is about as far south as you can be with a snowmobiling economy that people still depend on for their livelihoods. For their sake I hope we get some cold 

No one has canceled anything, just discussing model outputs with the usual caveats. I’m tracking for this weekend and it’s worth keeping an eye on the 2nd-3rd period even down in SNE. 

51 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

For some reason I thought last year wad better early on but reviewing my journal it was not. Other than the 15" storm middle of Dec, we poured on the 23rd and went back to grass by NYE. Things didn't improve until Jan 18th or so and we had a decent stretch for 2-3 wks to then have big warmup in Feb. March was decent. Somehow despite the slow start and mediocre rest of season we still managed 98". I've said it before, I'd gladly take the mean of 73" on the season if we just had avg temps and good retention

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk
 

Great post. The way this season is unfolding is so similar to last year. Anomalous warmth all last year too but we managed to go AN in snowfall. ENSO this ENSO that but without any cold in our source region the outcome doesn’t look much different.

14 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

All the cold still on the other side of the globe 

I follow some snowmobile accounts from Siberia on IG. They always have snow and cold but the last few seasons have been really good for them. Yesterday was the warmest day in western Siberia in weeks and weeks, but the cold still looks entrenched over there. I agree with others that it’s still a close the shades look for snow lovers in the NE. We may pull a few events in interior NNE but it’s uncanny similar to last year in terms of anomalous warmth, even with the PAC looking so different. 

no expert here but seems like SSTs are cooling in the area of the W PAC where the lack of a gradient has been theorized for the strange ENSO response. 

Still warm but you can start to see the gradient appearing in the W PAC

It just doesn't snow in SNE anymore. Clown map yes, SNE snow weenies bridge jumping also yes. 

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Euro is a Maine special on the 28th.

That overnight run takes out all the culverts getting replaced this week 

Watch this reel https://www.facebook.com/reel/1287340709333173?fs=e&s=TIeQ9V&mibextid=LTILV2
 
now that is some damage 

It’s a fooking disaster out here in Western Maine. Add elevation and snowpack to 6” of rain you get this shit show. This is the 4th damaging rain event we’ve had in 12 months. Folks are tired 

Rotting at 35 degrees. NAM says we struggle to get to 40 and miss the dews. Cold cold rain incoming. Maybe we’ll have some snow left after this…

Opening day at Pleasant Mtn. Enjoying it today and tomorrow. I commented on the east shifts yesterday, but this is still looking like a big headache for CP Maine folks. We rip on NW winds and with trees loaded up with snow this could be bad power issues. CMP has crews from California in my area right now doing preemptive pruning.





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3 hours ago, dryslot said:

Nothing recent, Just when they started framing back early summer, This will be that view, But i saw the Blue Prints.

Hope it’s a local contractor getting paid handsomely for that build. Looks like it’s up off summit hill or thereabouts. Lot of nice view lots in Harrison and surrounding. 

The trend for this weekend storm continues, doesn’t even wrap up until it’s near Goose Bay. 6z gfs goes to pound town in NVT verbatim. Two days ago the backside snows were in Michigan. 

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

Second day in a row we don't get out of the 20's for a high, Already down to 20.4°F, Looks like first single digits could be overnight here.

Deep winter out there today, love to see it 

Paste


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35 degrees, light snow. 5.5” storm total. Big paster here, there are some localized power issues as well 

Fun to see GYX mentioning possibility of deform bands tomorrow morning. 1.5” so far 

Snowing big aggregates in Conway, NH

GYX still not biting on the coast. NAM is pretty juicy for mby, more than an 1” qpf modeled.