Kmlwx

Dewpoint behind the storms is down by around 7-8 degrees. Temp down to 66 degrees (off the high of 78.9). 

Can't wait for the 50s dewpoints (40s even!). 

Enjoy the storms - it's possible we go on a run of not much excitement. 

I think it's one of those pseudo-hooks we've seen before. 

The higher scans of the Great Falls cell have a hook - but not sure it's legit. 

MoCo cell N of Wolf Trap has had some occasional interesting velocity but it keeps going away. Showing up on the TBWI scans a bit. 

Maybe a bit of a downburst signal NE of the Sterling radar? 

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

NE corner of my yard gets its first STW of the year. Didn’t get a phone buzz though. Either way, I think I’m gonna get fringed…

My phones have tended to not get STWs but they do get Flood Warnings and Tornado Warnings. 

Okay here we go - it's going to try to cycle up. ProbSevere going up steadily now and uptick in lightning. Velocity scans actually look semi decent. Seems like the Howard cell might be losing some punch for the moment. 

Rooting for the cell on the Loudoun/Fairfax/MoCo border. The CIMMS probs have been slowly increasing on it - lightning seems to be cycling up and down. 

The ProbSevere numbers on that Mount Airy storm are up to 19% TOR. 

I'm a little more intrigued. My temp never cracked 80...but it continues to be extremely moist/soupy out there. It' definitely uncomfortable walking outside. 

Let's see if the cells forming in NoVA can start to develop any more than just isolated storms. 

Little cell popping in Southern Maryland now. Radar looks largely dead. The fat lady is warming up in the wings. 

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like a complete bust unless something changes right quick.

Just made a post - not sure what created the boundary - maybe differential heating from the clouds earlier...or maybe a river wind or something. Seems to far W to be a bay breeze. If the Fredericksburg cell can throw off an outflow - and these two meet up it could at least salvage consolation thunder. But yes - this looks terrible. 

There is a boundary moving N and W from the DC are that *might* be something to root for to trigger something else. You can see it on the Meso East floater 1 sector visible satellite and also very slightly on the TIAD terminal radar. 

26 minutes ago, yoda said:

We'll see... as @CAPE noted, 18z NAM NEST has a severe line moving through at 23z

I think that may be the NAM nest showing the Frederick storm but initiates it too far south. Notice how it barely has anything where that cell is. We just didn't warm up enough it seems. Will hold out for late developing cells/lines - but I haven't even gotten out of the 70s. Up to 77 now (high of the day). Dewpoints are great...just needed some more insolation. 

25 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Definitely getting brighter outside the last few minutes. 

Of course that band of thicker clouds rolls in as soon as I say that. We'll see if that more substantial clearing behind can perform. Starting to get well into the afternoon. I'm still stuck in the mid 70s...dewpoint is 71+ though...so at least it's moist.

Definitely getting brighter outside the last few minutes. 

Clouds, clouds, and more clouds here in Colesville. 

Mesoscale discussion issued. 80 percent chance of a watch. 

Does seem like there are some breaks in the clouds in areas like Franklin, WV and near Luray. Not much...but they are there. 

12 minutes ago, yoda said:

I see some breaks in the clouds and some sun 

Lots of clouds to the W though. I'm tempted to MEH for my backyard. Lots of the CAMs really do focus things S and E of 95. 

2 minutes ago, high risk said:

Still a ton of uncertainty in the 00Z CAM suite.    Several solutions fire convection late morning / midday.

Always amazing to see the complexities of severe weather. We all like to point out how "unstable" the models are sometimes in the winter...I'd argue this is a much better example. Overall, the models seem to do a pretty good job with synoptics...smaller scale stuff like storms we definitely haven't nailed down in numerical modeling yet...just too small!

I feel like even given the above...this is the most "confused" I've been heading into an event in some time. Usually we at least have some semblance of agreement on a line/storms vs spottier coverage or even a complete miss. 

I really could still...(even like 18 hours out!) argue for any solution spanning nothing to a fairly area-wide severe weather episode (not talking about another June 2012 of course!)

The Panhandle of WV part of the line looks better now. I still expect some precip IMBY but don't think I'll see severe. Heck...even lightning may be limited if any. Going about as advertised so far. 

Tons of lightning showing up on that part of the line NNW of Culpeper. Good sign that it's going to town in terms of intensity. 

24 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Somewhat interested in tomorrow. The system coming across Missouri, Illinois, and Missouri seems energetic and is producing a decent number of tornadoes. We'll see what the visible satellite imagery tomorrow looks like.

Spoiler: Early showers/storms that keep popping like popcorn to keep us stable. That, or just socked in overcast until a brief clearing that happens too late.