ORH_wxman

Maybe. But that negative height anomaly near Hudson Bay and just east of there counts too. That's part of the domain...so even if you say Greenland cancels out the central Atlantic, Hudson Bay to just south of Baffin Island is going to tip it. Regardless, the cfs pattern is much more classic for -NAO.

Yeah. That's actually even more than I thought initially was incorporated down in the Atlantic basin.

GGEM is pushing the 11/8 idea

He's saying those positive anomalies over Greenland have no response to the south and southwest on the cansips. Look at that swath of positive height anomalies across the Atlantic exactly where the negative anomalies are on the cfs. That looks like a positive NAO pattern despite the anomalies over Greenland. So it might technically be negative based on the cpc definition, it actually behaves more like a positive NAO for our downstream sensible wx.

The positive height anomaly is kind of blah, but that swath of good negative anomalies stretching from the central Atlantic all the way back into the northeast is very classic -NAO response. Either way, we'd take it.

Nothing will ever beat him selling hot dogs at the local high school baseball game when he could have been chasing in southern MA on 6/1/11

First snow event inside of 200h now? GFS has it at 186-192. Lol Euro should track it through Ottawa in a couple hours.

Yeah this is wipeout city. But luckily the pattern looks pretty good for snow making coming up. They'll be blowing a ton of snow in the next two weeks.

If you don't radiate then it's even a bit late for freeze. But the Lowell coop up there actually had first freeze 10/6. That's earlier than their 10/14 average. But they are clearly a rad spot.

It does look like we start to lose the EPO block toward mid-month and beyond, but we'll have to see as we get closer that it's not breaking down too quickly which happens often.

SW CT was living large for many years ...but they've missed the meat of some of the recent snow blitzes like March 2018 (2nd big one that month was mostly east), Dec 2017 (missed most of the Xmas storm), Feb 2017 (round two was mostly north of HFD-PVD), and even the best of Feb '15 was east though everyone got in on it. They were jackpotting a bunch in 2010-2013 time frame. I'm sure they'll be some storms soon where they cash in more.

Yeah that's actually pretty classic for mid-winter extreme Arctic outbreaks. I remember years ago going back and looking at our top 10-15 worst ones and a huge majority of them have a big positive height anomaly deep into the Arctic Ocean versus just over AK. There's a bit of Atlantic support on this setup too. For those rooting for snow, it's actually probably better to cut the 11/8 system and delay the heart of the cold plunge several days. The longwave pattern gets a bit more favorable and you gain some climo (esp up in the source region where they are losing 5-6 minutes a day of sun).

I count you as mountains since you enjoy the advantage of the upslope components. I was more speaking for areas like central NH over to the lakes region in Maine eastward to midcoast. Those areas usually require something a bit more than moist CAA flow to generate measurable snow.

Euro goes cutter this run. Screaming south winds. Cold wont be denied though eventually even on this look...checkout that building over EPO block at d9...sending another brutal arctic shot south but it would end up a lot further east wth the block bullying its way into the central arctic. Either way, prob getting some real cold...exact evolution/dates TBD

Of course, the 12z run is now dropping the PV lobe way west compared to 00z and that changes the whole d8-10 look. But that's another Arctic blizzard for the front range.

Euro ensembles have the disturbance as well. It's 9-10 days out so it doesn't really matter at this point but there's going to be some legit cold around and if the embedded shortwaves cooperate then it's totally realistic to see a snow threat. Its not like 11/8-9 is the same as October....we're starting to get into more realistic time frames for first measurable...esp for interior zones and into NNE non-mountains.

Maybe we should just forward the 10 commandments of winter wx forecasting to Uccellini and tell him not to approve any GFS upgrades until the commandments have been answered?

Gonna be really hard for him to ignore the FV3 when it's showing a snow blitz and the euro says not a chance.

That makes sense. 22z would be 6pm and it was still light out so that matches my memory. Doesn't get dark until closer to 7 in late September. Looks like it started around 5:40pm.

I wanna say late afternoon?

I'm sure the Ecmwf.int crowd would be happy to help out...

Btw, how's this for an October morning? 4F and snow in Denver. Currently tied for all time record low October temp. Dropped 2F this past hour so good chance they break it.

Def looks like the main vortex gets far enough south to put us on the north side of any disturbance that gets embedded in the flow.

There's plenty of peer review research to read that will argue humans aren't responsible for the increase in CO2, but in reading them, you'll note that they don't hold up under scrutiny as time passes and other papers rebut them and they aren't able to counter those rebuttals. So they are fewer and fewer these days. I would suggest reading literature across all spectrums and not try and muck up the thread by insisting you know more than these papers.

They didn't attempt to quantify the non-climate factors though which was a bit frustrating in reading the study. I just finished reading it and they sort of just decide that VPD fits well enough that it is dominant. That might be true but it would have been nice to try and isolate it from the non-climate factors which they admitted is something they weren't doing in the paper...so we could see numerically how dominant it actually is.