ORH_wxman

It's a weird model....sometimes I see it, but then once in a while, it will be totally warm/zonked on a coastal too. I used to say the Ukie has "an extreme bias"....seemed to like to push the envelope of the other guidance ranges. But i do feel more recently, it's been a little more southeast. Esp this year. We'll see if that holds.

Yeah you might have a really strong correlation to the AMO decadal cycle perhaps? Which also seems to loosely follow the NAO decadal cycles. The '80s bottomed out and were frigid....you see it in the Greenland temps too where they were torching in the 1940s/early 1950s and then went into an ice box with really cold stuff in the 1970s and 1980s.

Lol...its barely a ULL...looks like it needs to eat a few cheeseburgers and fatten up. But I think most winter enthusiasts would take an inch or two if we could get it at the end so we didn't have to look at bare ground or patches. Interestingly, the Ukie doesn't even look like it warm sectors us...ever....can't see 108 hours which is annoying, but nothing about those two panels looks very warm

I wouldn't expect much of anything yet....but it wouldn't be shocking if there was like an inch or two at the end if that trend persists.

This is kind of what you want to look for....GGEM has some pretty good energy going underneath SNE which is why it tries to throw some light snow behind as it exits

Ginxy is good people...he just once in a while steps in dog doo....but we still love him whether he has it on his shoes or not. Back to the next storm....yeah Scooter...GGEM shows how to get some snow at the end. GFS was close (and so was Euro actually).

The next system could end as a bit of snow...NNE may even get accumulations at the end. Down here, prob not more than flakes, but if that upper level energy trends stronger at the base of the trough, then even down here could see a bit....just something to keep half an eye on as we wait to see how the 1/8 time period unfolds.

Doubt there would be much in the way of ice with that...maybe at the onset.

You can grab it here: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/timeseries/ You gotta make your own time series and plug in the coordinate bounds otherwise you'll get the entire globe, lol. And to get the trend, I just copied the data to excel as you can see above and plotted it on a graph and stuck a linear regression trend line in there.

Yeah agreed.... the skiing stuff is crap....mom and pop ski areas used to function sometimes for like 20-30 days out of the winter...whenever they had natural snowfall, and they'd be closed when a cutter wiped it out. Most of them closed because of a combo of interstate highways making the larger mountains more accessible and the rise of lawsuits which small areas mostly couldn't afford to deal with. CC had very little to do with it....most of them actually closed during a very cold period in the 1970s. I learned to ski on absolute garbage in the 1990-1992 timeframe. We had bare ground on half of the killington ski trails and the ones that had snow were like icy death ribbons. I could only have been so lucky to learn to ski in the 2010s when ski trails have been mostly packed to brim with snow. This myth that we had some sort of skiing utopia where Joe's ski hill in Southington CT could be open 90 days a winter with full cover is totally a figment of climate weenie's imagination. Being critical of that 20th century utopia narrative does NOT make one a climate denier either...I hear that garbage all the time too from climate weenies...usually in an attempt to shut down the debate...it's easier to paint one with a pejorative than actually read some literature or look at data. Hyping up a narrative is just as bad as discounting climate change exists....both are anti-science. CC makes a torch more likely...events like March 2012 are more likely due to CC as well as torch winters like 2015-2016, and those record warm months that come with such winters. But on the flip side, this seems to be offset somewhat by more snowfall in recent years. Could be a result of more moisture and also an increase in frequency of the "warm arctic, cold continents" pattern. The temperature increase is also not uniform. The minimum temperatures are increasing about 40% faster than maximum temperatures mostly due to radiational cooling on clear nights....and because of this, it will have less impact on a snowstorm or snow retention versus if the temperature increase was uniformly increasing. Whether we radiate to 12F versus 14F or 15F isn't going to impact a snowstorm as much as maximum temperatures in cloudy/precipitation situations. Our winter time maximum temperatures are warming at roughly 0.35F per decade while the minimum temps are like 0.4 to 0.5F per decade. The mid-level temps for New England in the D,J,F period have warmed even slower than the surface and this is important since mid-level temps are more important to our snowfall than sfc temps...as far back as we can go (1949), the trend has only been about 0.13C per decade, which comes out to about 0.23F per decade converted into Fahrenheit....even slower than our maximum sfc temp rise and about half the rate of the minimum sfc temp rise. In the literature, extratropical storm tracks overall have shifted slightly poleward in our area since the middle 20th century, but not enough to explain a cutter over Buffalo versus a redeveloper over Cape Cod...that difference is way beyond the net effects of CC. I think the easiest way to think of CC is that it is an underlying trend that gets dwarfed on a seasonal and sub-seasonal basis by natural variability. We can't get our coldest month of all time (Feb 2015) in a world where CC warming overwhelms natural variability on that type of timescale. The months like February 2015 become less likely in a warming world, but they still obviously happen. It happened in 1934....and we somehow repeated those temps (and then some) 81 years later. Likewise, 1949 is still the warmest summer on record in Massachusetts....CC warming will eventually ensure that we break that record, but we haven't broken it yet because natural variability still reigns supreme for the time being.

This weekend is a big cutter. No real ice threat...maybe very briefly at the onset. There could be a bit of snow at the end though as models are trying to hang back some energy.

Even Jan 2012 had several snow events. We'll get something unless we're super unlucky.

Nobody should be caring what an OP run shows at 200 hours.

Tuckermans prob averages over 400" per year while MWN is 260". All about the wind when you're talking near the summits.

Bet that varies quite a bit in the wind. That sucker must sway a lot.

We're down to patches and the typical piles/snow banks....woods are holing a little more than just patches....we had been holding onto majority cover still this morning (prob like 75% when I got up) but the rest of today wiped out that out. Really hard to handle 30+ hours of 45+ dewpoints....you need that CAD where you rot in the mid/upper 30s for an extra 6-12 hours.

I would expect it as soon as I got more than a 4" pack if I lived in that CAD zone.

Ashburnham is basically the SNE version of that zone....those protected elevated areas in N ORH county can retain pretty efficiently. I've seen us get wiped out on Winter Hill and then drive maybe 5 miles north to the north side of Holden and it can be 100% cover with 6"+ still. Even within the city of ORH, I've seen us hold onto good pack on the north side and the south side is almost totally bare. But generally as a rule, the further north and east you get into the hills, the better protected they become.

How is '07-'08 not on there? Pretty sure you got nuked on 12/3 and then it never melted until mid/late April.

Dendrite is definitely in the "weenie CAD zone"....basically from his 'hood up to near Tamarack....including lakes region and up towards IZG.

Ashburnham somehow kept their pack after that obscene 4 day January 2008 massacre.....though latitude helped a lot that winter. That '00-'01 winter was epic, but it took until later December to really get it started. The mid-Dec 2000 event got obliterated by that monster cutter on 12/17-18.

Yeah you need replenishers to sustain snowpack for most of us. Outside of the high mountain areas or extreme weenie CAD zones (like where Tamarack is), it is difficult to keep solid cover without adding to it from time to time. A year like 207-2018 is a good example...we had snow cover start in the Dec 9th storm and it was looking strong well past New Years after the 1/4 storm, but then it took an absolute beating in the mid-month 2 day cutter and anything that survived got finished off in the next cutter a week later. So even though that snowpack made it over a month from the start point, it got wiped out mid-winter because we couldn't keep adding to it after the 1/4 storm and couldn't avoid the epic cutter.

1995 and 2002 weren't on that list since they were during the ASOS disaster years....but yeah, it's rare as you saw from my post above.

It almost never happens outside of maybe the Berkshires at high elevation. The few years can think where pre-Dec 10th snowpack went all the way are maybe 2002, 1995, 1970, and 1960. Most of these were relegated to the interior too, as the CP got wiped out at some point those winters....exception might be 1970-1971. I think 1981-1982 also came close but didn't quite do it. 2013-2014 may have done it as well for N ORH county...they survived the Grinch storm and then also still had snowpack after the epic cutter in Jan 2014.

Full on winter. Clouds really limiting the effect of the weak December sun