ORH_wxman
-
Posts
90,911 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by ORH_wxman
-
Euro looks like a cutter for 12/29.
-
Ukie is actually just a straight cutter for 12/29....albeit kind of a weak one.
-
They aren;t out that far yet.
-
Need more confluence to north....Xmas storm becomes too wrapped up and retrogrades which doesn't help. Grinch storm gives us two Christmas presents..... Euro/Ukie did look a little more favorable so we'll see if they try and produce at 12z.
-
12/29 looks pretty crappy....but can't rule out interior snows. A lot will depend on how the deepening Xmas storm behaves to our northeast as that is the source of any confluence....if it lifts N easily or retrogrades too far W, then it's probably no dice for snows in SNE and maybe even CNE/eastern NNE.
-
Yeah already offshore E MA by 12z Xmas morning. Just when we thought the new GFS might be reliable.....
-
Yeah it’s slowing down every run too so it’s going to be tropical most of the day on Xmas instead of the front coming through early morning or overnight. Prob technically a white Xmas in many places at 7am but mudslides by lunchtime/afternoon.
-
No. Looks like another rainstorm.
-
Looks like the slower models are going to win the battle and all of us are going to wake up with tropical dewpoints. Hideous.
-
Hope the NAM is wrong. It still has the cold front back in BGM/AVP area at 12z. Probably all day on Xmas in the 50s/60s with that setup, lol.
-
-
White Christmas at IJD and brown up in powderfreak’s condo courtyard?
-
I think it probably survives over the interior at least. Might be close if the slower solutions materialize....
-
Euro still has FROPA around 18z on Xmas...would be nice to move that up 6 hours. GFS is more like 06z-09z but it's probably wrong....it has support from the NAM, lol.
-
Looked similar to 12z. No trend.
-
These small events are nice when they are falling on top of a robust pack. Kind of useless when it’s bare ground.
-
EPS is interested in 12/29
-
Fatties falling here. Starting to coat things up.
-
Rap dumps an inch or so for central/western areas in the next 4-6 hours.
-
Euro still bad for the grinch storm but it sped things up a lot...by about 12 hours from late Xmas night for FROPA on last night’s run to 18z Xmas day on today’s run. Let’s speed that up another 12 hours and we’re looking better.
-
Actually looking at it in more detail on pivotal instead of the 1996 meteocentre graphics, it’s still pretty awful. More like 18z FROPA.
-
It’s in between the GFS and the horrific scenarios. It’s still bad but at least the front is through early Xmas morning so we’d avoid downpours and 60F temps during the day. It would actually get colder throughout the day.
-
Ukie tries to get front through 12z. Would be better if a little faster but at least it’s not as hideous as the GGEM/Euro.
-
Yeah probably. We may need to just embrace mudslides and flooding with 60F dews on Xmas. Came close to pulling off a really good Xmas season but grinch found a way at the last second.
-
GGEM is still absolutely hideous.
