ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Yeah model guidance suggested a putrid-looking radar early on and that's what we are getting. It starts to organize over SNE late morning and our peak time is like noon to 4pm.
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The system may try to blow up a little before it exits east so I could see some areas out there getting some enhancement before it ends. Not sure I’d have the confidence to go warnings though.
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GFS has an excellent cross-hair sig for far N CT and the pike region. A little different than the NAM.
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RPM for Jerry.
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Best cross hair sig seems to be up near rt 2 and the NH border...even though they aren’t the QPF Max. Could be a secondary little stripe up there if there is a little band since they might get very good ratios. Thats assuming the soundings are accurate which is a big assumption.
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That’s a pretty tasty NAM run for the pike region. But almost all of SNE gets advisory snows on that save for immediate south coast.
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Technically not a clipper but it’s essentially behaving like one as it gets here for all intents and purposes.
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Gonna have to watch as this thing exits east....some fo the guidance tries to make it go a little nuts at the last second. Could be some enhancement from that.
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They continued to the winter pattern into early March unlike last week.
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18z NAM is going to be south of the 12z run.
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Just like we all thought before the season. Cold/snowy February.
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Trend has been south with Feb 11-12....might come back but it needs to reverse soon.
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Yep, Euro is nada for Thu/Fri....goes big for Vday though. I should say it really goes moderate for Vday, but there's potential there for a lot higher.
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That's a nice sig for NW CT to the pike region up into S NH for a weenie band
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Only behind ORH by 0.3"
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Pack becoming pretty impressive.
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Ukie was pretty juicy. That's a nice event for almost all of SNE and into S NH/S VT.
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No, he made one for the Feb 11-12 threat....this is for after that around 2/14. edit: I see he updated the thread to include both....
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ORH had 0.47" of QPF which was about double of the 00z Euro run the night before. 12z Euro run was slightly better but still off as it only had 0.30" of QPF. OTOH, the NAM had like 0.7" so it didn't fair any better. I agree with Ryan that the snow growth made the high QPF models look more correct than they were. They were way too juicy in most areas.
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I'm thinking 3-5ish right now for most of SNE and into S VT/S NH....a little less near the south coast and taering as you head north. But there is room for a stripe of 6-7" totals if things break right. On some of these runs, there is a banding sig....so that has to be watched. It would prob be pretty high ratios again too. Like someone gets 7" on 0.40" of QPF in a band.
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Big coastal snowstorm on GFS today for 2/14. This threat has been there but bouncing around on every run on each model. The way guidance handle the PV will change these solutions and that feature is very difficult on the models.
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Yes, how tilted a system is matters, but also how far northwest into that tilt does the big lift penetrate. Those aren't always the easiest to diagnose. The models could be a little off on both aspects and you miss by 25 miles on a big band.
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The nickel and dime pattern is a lot more appealing when there is already a good snow pack...lik many in here have right now.
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GFS looks about the same as 06z....maybe a smidge south but basically negligible. It's a nice look for a lot of SNE.
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ICON ticked south too.
