ORH_wxman

Euro is going to be SE of 06z by a tick

As long as we avoid true cutters it’s good there. But even up there would kind of suck if we got a cutter or two ripping through Ottawa.

Def toss the clown map. Way too far south with the snow. But definitely a lot colder than the 00z run.

Ukie got way colder. That looks like there could be a decent amount of snow in SNE.

The PV did not end up in Dallas.

06z was even warmer. All these are probably going to cool as we get closer.

I feel like this is coming back SE now at 12z. ICON and RGEM are notable ticks back SE. Still a frozen/freezing mess for much of SNE but the sleet/snow line is a lot closer now. As i said to scott earlier this AM, that is a tight fit to rip that vortmax around the PV lobe. It’s decaying on approach because of that squeeze...Tip actually made a good post about it earlier.

NAM looks pretty good for SE zones. Even up to here is like 2-3”. Scooter might be in a good spot tonight with a little Ocean enhancement.

Yep that looks pretty different from even a few days ago. The PV consolidates very strongly by day 10. NAO has been underestimated all winter but it’s starting to insist that it finally loses its influence. We’ll see. It does look like dateline ridging tries to pop again but without a strong Atlantic block, it will definitely be fighting a SE ridge.

Yeah the classic Waterbury to Hamden corridor might be a spot for ZR.

You’d need to at least double the QPF too for crippling ice.

I’m not sure this looks like a classic big icing event. It moves quite fast and I’m wondering if this ends up more sleet/snow in the end.

Yeah that looked colder than 00z. I’m wondering if this starts getting squeezed east now in the final 72h. When you look at the upper air pattern, it’s kind of a tight fit to slingshot that shortwave around the PV lobe.

2/18-19 is looking a bit more thumpy on a lot of runs...it is one silver lining of the 2/16 system going to crap since it lowers heights behind it and helps out 2/18 a little more. This one still looks messy as the system tries to hug but the antecedent airmass is pretty good.

Euro looked like a furnace aloft. Sleet into NNE. Could be a good amount of icing over interior SNE. Looks like a mostly plain rain event for the coast.

18z Euro looked a little more amped than 12z at 90 hours.

I dunno if I’d say “much” warmer. Maybe subjective on the qualifier. It has the snow line maybe 25-30 miles north. Peltfest for a good chunk of SNE. ZR further south.

GFS still pretty snowy. Esp Pike region but even south of that gets a bit of of thump.

Jan 2005 gave them a good one. I think it was 1/6/05. Might have had close to a half inch in that one there....but not since then.

ASH got the big one in 2008 though....

Monday is weird...I don't have a good feel for it at all...some guidance tries to send another round of snow/sleet (or light freezing rain/drizzle) into SNE, but others have more of a pause.

18z NAM trying to get a couple inches in here tomorrow night now too....something I think we'll need to watch for the next cycle. I had mentioned the analogs were quite a bit more bullish on QPF than the model guidance. Doesn't mean we end up with as much as those analogs, but it sometimes helps point to which way the system is more likely to trend.

NAM was a little less phased on the 18z run....something we'll obviously have to watch closely.

The euro is probably not correct...but I was saying if we took everything else on the model at face value, you'd have to drag that sfc freezing line southeast. There is just no way to get the sfc warmth that far inland in a sfc pressure config like that. I'm not sure if Euro is correct on the really warm mid-levels....it was pretty "phase-y" with the two streams, so it's plausible. My gut tells me we prob tick back colder given this whole boundary tends to get tilted/shifted too far NW erroneously in the medium range....sort of what Tip was alluring to above. But this is a pretty convoluted setup, so I'm just making an educated guess here. Regardless, I'm pretty sure you aren't sniffing freezing in the next 5 days (and prob longer).

Prob should rephrase my sentence.....take the Euro at face value except bring the sfc temps/ice further SE. Classic model bias is 2m temps way too warm with arctic high bending into Quebec/Ontario. But yeah, on the overall point, there's going to be model shifts between now and Tuesday....some will show more snow and others will show more ice.