ORH_wxman

Yet 3 of the last 4 have started quickly (Dec 2020, Dec 2019, and Dec 2017)....and even the one December dud 2018 was the big November with a record cold T-day.

Lot of black ice outside right now on the driveway.

Unless we get a warm cutter or some prolonged 50s/60s, the pack here is going to put up a long battle. High water content...had 16-17” coming into today. Didn’t lose much. So I’m rooting for the rogue early March storm to find a way...but I’m not optimistic at the moment.

THats probably what it is. No real sign of a huge ridge forming like 2012 or 2010...but that could change later when we get closer to mid-month so we’ll see. But it’s probably just going to be torture...lots of 40s and 50s watching the pack slowly melt/sublimate.

About an inch of slime at ORH on winter hill...snow lasted another 15-20 min or so after this.

Nitpick...Jan 2000 Mid-Atlantic storm didn't whiff us. It tracked right up through MA, prob almost over my head. It was about 6" and then pingers/ZR for much of interior MA. Places like BWI got near a foot since longitude helped a lot.

What method of grading ENSO does 2007-2008 or 1999-2000 become a "super La Nina"? Maybe you can make a case for 2010-2011 using only MEI, but definitely not ONI. Using ONI, the strongest Ninas are 1973-1974, 1988-1989, and 1955-1956/1975-1976/1999-2000 (3-way tie). 1973-1974 is the only one that got to -2C on ONI trimonthly.

Down to 35.3F....but not flipping to snow. Mostly rain still with some mangled flakes mixed in.

Mostly RA- here....some hideous flakes mixing in at times. Down to 36F....not sure we're going to flip to straight snow. Maybe int he next hour or so if we can get some better lift.

RA/SN mix right now at 37F....went outside and it's barely precipitating.

Started off as flakes here

38F here too....but it's going to try and wetbulb.

About to commence here....we'll see what ptype it is

Long term BTV is like 74" or something...but I think more recently it is much higher. I remember noticing that their avg since 1970 is closer to 84". Some of that may be measuring techniques which would affect them up there more than a place down here. They get a lot of fluffier clipper/LES/blocked upslope type events where if you don't measure right away, you may underestimate it quite a bit. On the flip side, compaction is really only a huge deal on large snowfalls. But if they used to be a once per day type measuring spot prior to the mid-20th century, even the little ones may add up after a while.

I have such a good snow pack here that I'm hoping to grab an inch or two of slop to make it look even more impressive, but even if it's rain, it's prob not melting much of anything in the mid 30s....it will just put more water in the pack as the powder on top absorbs it. It's too bad we couldn't keep that high holding a little tougher to the northeast, because that would have made this a really good injection low type event....prob widespread high end advisory to low end warning if that happened because not only would we all be a little colder, a high holding tougher would increase fronto and wring out extra moisture on this sucker.

Up to 37.5F here now...just torching. I was 27F not even 2 hours ago. Obviously things could wetbulb back down as dewpoints are still in the 20s, but I have a feeling even if it does, it would be a lot of white rain type snow.

The ORH to MQE corridor has been another local jackpot area in SNE....that band like 10 miles either side of that zone. Though today prob won't do much east of ORH, but we'll see.

I haven't looked that closely since it didn't look that great here. SW CT looks like a decent spot since the sfc trough will try and focus the LL moisture there.

1-3 for you....3 if lucky and you really crank for 3 hours or so. Litchfield county may get some 4+ lollis

Up to 34F here....was 27F like an hour ago.

You'll get a few inches...nothing big. But there's enough push north to get at least 2-3 well into NNE.

Latest HRRR actually gets snow pretty close to Boston late this afternoon.

There's prob 2 chances to try and time something perfect in early March....first attempt is around 3/1 and then maybe another a couple days later. The pattern has been swinging a lot on each run though with multiple shortwaves, so these could change and I expect a lot of volatile model runs until we get closer.

Had some weenie flakes here about 15 min ago. Not sure what to expect here....not much accumulation is my thinking but we may get some aggregates at 34F later....might be just far enough west though for an inch or two. I'd bet winter hill in ORH grabs a couple though.