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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Looks like the canadians aren't bothering to run the RGEM today.
  2. ORH_wxman
    I think GFS uses FV3 core.
  3. ORH_wxman
    NAM has like -23C at 925 get down to the pike....lol. That's below 0F at the sfc if that happens.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Yeah NAM is world's different from the GFS at the end of the run....doesnt mean much yet, but it's better than having it shows something as amped or more amped.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Scooter down to PYM might get advisory snows on the 3km.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Very efficient delivery too for us...almost due north to south vector.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I just posted to luke how this thing is still positively tilted over the TN valley on the 06z GFS and the friggin' thing ends up in BGM....lol.
  8. ORH_wxman
    In the original solutions before we had much of a storm, the shortwave was just sliding off the southeast coast with no consequence and we were discussing how wave #3 would be the one.....what's happening since then is that shortwave #2 digs way down south and slows down so that when shortwave #3 approaches, it's partially phasing it allowing it to climb the coast as an inland runner. But yeah, even on the 06z GFS, the trough is positively tilted still at the MS River...even over the TN Valley too.
  9. ORH_wxman
    In Steve's defense, the GEFS aren't skewed as much to the west as the EPS....the 06z OP GFS is basically the furthest west member. But the trend definitely needs to halt.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Not sure we'd get much snow if this keeps going west. lol.....right now we have a thump to rain.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Yeah but it started at 168...we're now getting into the 120 range...the lead time is almost as important as the trends. The closer you get, the more confidence there is in the solutions. I'm not writing it off yet, but I'm saying we really need to see some movement in the next cycle or two.
  12. ORH_wxman
  13. ORH_wxman
    This has been a very strong trend west....it could go back east and it wouldn't surprise me, but we're starting to get into the time range where really large moves aren't expected, so I think we're gonna need to see some movement today back eastward.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Look at how skewed westward those lows are into interior E PA....we need a pretty big change at 12z or its lights out for a big event....obviously there would be some front end snow (more the further north you go), but a lot of the region would flip
  15. ORH_wxman
    I think it might actually go further west....not a lock mind you...but it's becoming more and more supported....all the ensemble sensitivity is still westward. 06z EPS has a lot of members tracking through VT and NY State now.
  16. ORH_wxman
    I think we’ll definitely want to see a shift eastward in the 12z suite. Don’t like the idea of a storm tracking into interior NE.
  17. ORH_wxman
    It’s been a while since we had a crusher for your area and SNE at the same time but they actually historically aren’t uncommon at all…just been getting screwed recently, lol.
  18. ORH_wxman
    This looks to have more of a trajectory that gains latitude so even if E MA does well I think this will go into the Gulf of Maine and still be good for your area over to Maine…not one of those redevelopers where it squirts east after reaching near the benchmark or ACK.
  19. ORH_wxman
    We'd all take drugs if we could have gotten rid of the December RNA.
  20. ORH_wxman
    NAM gets some light snow into eastern SNE this run...parts of NNE gets some light snow from the northern vort. Nothing exciting though.
  21. ORH_wxman
    EPS actually likes that system too...Has a closed isobar low SE of BM ar 246 hours....which is kind of hard to do at that lead time. Beyond that, EPS keeps reloading that western ridge....you'd have to think it's just going to be more chances when you have meridional flow like that in conjunction with frigid cold lurking nearby (see Hudson Bay)...esp when we get pieces of that PV breaking off and relaxing the gradient temporarily. That western ridge is like gasoline ready to ignite potential.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Agreed...more progressive. It does have very mature conveyor belts with deep inflow, but I don't see this as being a 30+ hour job. Prob 12-15.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Confidence high on a storm on the EPS, but plenty of spread....but not bad for D6.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Lets go Feb 1-2 redux from last year....then we'll have to have Scooter's face photoshopped onto the FINISH HIM image.
  25. ORH_wxman
    I don't mind a hugger...just don't track it over my fanny....even an LI to Cape track would be an awful lot of snow before any taint.
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