ORH_wxman

We probably need to start a March thread but it’s an impressive pattern out at the end of the ensembles.

This run definitely had a healthier thump than 00z. I don’t care if it’s warmer aloft if it’s producing better precip on the front end. I’d rather 8” and then sleet/ZR than staying all snow with the same amount. I’d be surprised if we stayed all snow in this unless the whole vort track trends about 75-100 miles south of current guidance. But the key is having that front end WCB with a bent back WF to produce. Sometimes, you get a more shredded precip look on the front end and you’re done after 2-4” even if the profile is colder initially…12/16/07 is a good example against some system like 1/28/09 or 1/11/09…the latter two had better antecedent airmasses but the former produced more snow because we really ripped on the front end.

Yeah euro says we do another one on 2/27.

Great run for many. Solid snows N of MA/CT border and plenty of sleet and ZR for Kevin which is what he was hoping for.

Canadian held serve and Ukie took a good bump north too.

I know. He wants someone to respond telling him it will snow more there than he says. But nobody actually knows how this will trend 5 days out. History and the SE ridge in place says my bet is it trends north, but there’s other factors that could mute that so it wouldn’t be utterly shocking to me if it doesn’t trend north. Probabilistic forecasting is the way to go here.

There’s plenty of SWFEs that have given you warning snows. I’d def favor north right now but speaking in absolutes is pretty silly at D5.

Not nearly the meat grinder in place as there was in that pattern.

As someone who lives in the pike region, I’ll be hoping for some southerly ticks today because these come north more often than not once inside of 84 hours.

What in the hell are you talking about? Nothing has changed on Friday for like 3 days.

Looks pretty good for N ORH county

+300 DM anomaly at H5 over the EPO region on the 360h EPS today. That is crazy.

Yeah that is part of the reason this has a lower ceiling than a 2010-esque event. I remember that one had saturation up to like 500mb.

Looks pretty decent on radar with the light band. Gotta be some moderate in that

Yeah the sleet tickles up to near MA border and then collapses back south with a bit of a secondary with another 6 hour burst. Man, almost everything went right during that 3 week stretch. Funny to say almost because we actually whiffed on a couple that just missed us east like 1/31/15…I think that one got downeast Maine hard.

Ukie and GGEM aren’t buying the GFS suppression for next Friday and neither am I.

We prob want this south right now given other guidance.

Oops didn’t see Seymour’s squall thread. I’ll move the talk over there

I think some areas in N CT had 4-5” in that one. I think even BDL in the valley cleaned up.

Not really. The 20+ dbz echoes initially hit ORH around 505pm and then don’t clear out until 540ish. That’s a long time under 20+ dbz echoes in that unstable environment. I remember the event very well. We had about 3.5” in 35-40 minutes along with a flash freeze.

Yeah that squall line even on the robust HRRR is so narrow. The 2010 event was like 5x as wide. It was like 20+ miles wide. If it verifies that narrow then it’s going to be like 5-7 minutes and then done instead of 30+ minutes like we saw in a 2010 event. 5-7 minutes can still cause major road issues if it’s 4-5” per hour stuff, but you’d still end up with under an inch.

I wonder why they don’t supplement this with actual obs from first order sites. It has BOS at 31” when they are actually over 40”.

Antecedent airmass is better than 2/4. But this could definitely still be mostly sleet and ZR if it is amped enough. My gut says more snow than 2/4 but this is still 6 days out so really anything is on the table.

Most guidance had a band of lighter snow out ahead of the squalls.

Euro was a big thump for pike region northward. These solutions don’t really matter that much though at 6+ days out.