ORH_wxman

It actually has our side strengthening after the split happens. That said, I don’t necessarily need -30C 850s over our noggin.

@CoastalWx 192h now…almost inside a week now.

Euro looks like it had a little jackpot near Kevin…maybe just east

OP Euro is much colder next weekend than 00z as well…nice thump in front end with the classic bent back ML WF

Anyone who has tracked these types of events for more than a few years should know what the deal is. It’s on them if they think it’s going to be 2015.

They can also trend colder too when you have these type of airmasses in place and a high trying to hold on near Houlton…good for front enders. Hopefully the sludgy cold airmass wins out.

I think as long as people don’t expect Feb 2015 and understand there will be some messy ptype events, then most who like winter will be encouraged with what’s shown. Prob some good front enders and maybe even a legit icing event at some point…we’ll see. Sleet will be in play too of course. But seeing lots of low level arctic cold ahead of these systems is something that has been absent for several winters now. It’s one reason I’ve been fairly optimistic on this pattern since last week….low level arctic cold is hard to move and model guidance often underestimates it. So unlike all these systems the past few winters where we are trying to hold onto an antecedent airmass that has -1C at 925 and -3C at 850 (which will provide very flaccid resistance), we have these much deeper entrenched airmasses with -10C or colder. Much harder to eradicate and your “correction vector” as Tip wound say, becomes biased toward the cold side.

It spells weenie….each image is a letter. Ya’ll are blind, lol

Prob not gonna snow long enough for 5-6” jackpots. I think some narrow areas will rip for about an hour or two but the whole thing shuts off fairly quickly so that will limit the upside. So I think 3-4” lollis will do it inside a more general 1-3” swath…maybe someone gets super lucky with a 5” fluff jack…maybe Litchfield county or someone who can enhance the precip slightly on southerly flow.

Yep max is going to be in CT and maybe adjacent western RI in the southerly facing hills there I bet. I’m expecting 1-2” in eastern areas but once you get back to those more favorable spots, I could see some more 3-4” amounts.

Euro punches rain all the way into NNE but it’s after some snow/ice on the front end. A Euro/GFS compromise would prob stay below freezing there though and even prolong it in SNE. Still think this system is the ugliest out of the identifiable threats…it’s also not particularly juiced. Don’t think anyone is seeing an inch of QPF out of this one…euro struggles to get most people to half inch of QPF.

There’s actually very solid southerly lower level inflow in this event relatively speaking compared to the strength of the system. We get about 40 knots out of the south between 850-925. Someone is going to get a weenie stripe of 3-5” IMHO. The NAM has a crosshair sig too over a chunk of SNE.

Def a min on the east coast of MA it seems in this one. Central and western areas are the places that would see the higher lollies

That’s a pretty nice swath of 0.25”+ on the 06z Euro and GFS is pretty similar…even more robust. So if you’re grabbing 15 to 1 on that it’s gonna produce a lot of 3-4” amounts…and maybe even a 5 spot

I could see some 3-4” lollis easily if the snow growth is there. Good airmass for this one.

Euro still the warmest on this threat but it looks like it ticked colder at 06z with a little more snow/ice on front end and better CAD reflection at sfc. Still think the threats after this one are more favorable for winter precip but this one could easily continue to tick colder.

18z euro did cool a bit for midweek…still warmer than GFS but more sleet and ice on the front end (after pretty brief snow in SNE)…18z EPS does have some snowier members in there too so while my bet is GFS is too cold, we may see the OP euro cool at least a bit in the future.

Little mini-Montreal Express this afternoon and tonight. Despite the colder airmasses at times this winter, we haven’t had many on this type of delivery. These are the ones that bite a bit. We were falling even with the sun trying to poke out midday.

I mean, it doesn’t take too much imagination to see how the next 15 days leaves us with 4” of snow total that was all subsequently washed away in multiple amped systems where the primary is tracking through Ottawa. My gut though (and it’s not purely gut since it’s sort of supported by guidance) is that we cash in on a couple of these…they seem to get progressively more favorable the further out in time we go too…probably because the PV is slowly being pushed southward making it harder and harder to sustain warmer solutions the deeper in time we go.

Lol…the reason it’s funny is because zooming in on an EPS 15-day mean is completely worthless in value. It’s already pretty smoothed out too due to having 51 members so it’s not like the zoomed-out version is hiding intricate details.

You are plenty far north enough in this one for 1-3/2-4 depending on ratios.

Really good antecedent airmass for this one so should be able to stack some decent ratios if we get the snow growth. GFS actually has a really good crosshair sig over CT and up near pike for a time. So if that can occur, might grab some fluff-lollis to 4 in spots.

Pretty robust EPS run. They’ve gotten progressively better, but even several days ago it was hinting at some legit potential…which is why I was posting it amidst all the bridge-jumping

That was Zonties…that one was way back in the day. I think it was from Feb ‘06.