baltosquid

I mean given the tendency to over-model the SE ridge this winter, I think the 23-26 period definitely deserves cautious attention. Even for a storm that ultimately is gonna go too far north, fight off the ridge a little and I could imagine getting a frontend thump out of a nice shot of gulf moisture while we still have some cold. Or honestly, just imagine the setup as depicted on the GEFS right now just moves east some. It has trended eastward since this morning. That could put us much closer to the bullseye. Besides, this is real Gulf moisture. Not ready to be pessimistic about it!

Rough suite. Not much more to say. Still can hold on to this being a complex setup to maybe rescue it from here but... bleh.

GEFS was considerably wetter here than 12z but I guess temps are just too iffy.

GEFS for storm 1 looks to be continuing the trend to the op. Hope the stubbornly low snow means can come up a bit.

Canadian h5 is crap. No unified dive from the NS.

Squandering this over the continued lack of moisture would really sting, can't lie. Step in the right direction but really hope we can find a way to get more out of this. Or else someone is going to have the worst dry slot of their life.

Diving a smidge more and higher heights in front. Also the energy just north of Maine in this run was more around the NY/NH/Canada border, so hopefully more room to operate.

DESI has the HGEFS which if I remember correctly is NOAA's ensemble that includes both AI and deterministic members. Made an entirely too official looking graphic using the interface. Really puts it nicely: The temps at the surface should work with the kind of h5 pass we see at the moment. There is a coastal signal on the MSLP mean. But the precipitation is just so weak. For this, the best 6hr frame of precip, and a likely cooperative temperature profile, just a 1 in 3 chance of getting >0.1in or >1 inch of snow assuming 10:1 which may well be an overshoot if we lose some to changeover. Need moisture!!

RGEM obviously wouldn't work out but it did trend to the NS diving down more SW. Can't believe we're already at "extrapolate the mesoscales" for this lol.\ Edit: Also the RRFS A digs more thru 64hrs. But my read on that model so far is... not good? Am I imagining that?

Euro AI is still close but not there. Tilts negative, not a bad h5 look, but it isn't really diving into TN and the south like the GFS was, and it's pretty dry with problematic temps.

Alright euro running, wonder if the dry aughts continue

If that's the case, I suppose it makes sense. Looking at the GFS at 12z vs the UKMET at 00z, the GFS takes the low much further south and it really gets strong down in the deep south. The UKMET ends up with a good h5 passage, but it primarily strengthens further north. Not really making as much noise in the south. Never accesses the GoM as much.

Just to emphasize the big shift from 12z. Also see the deemphasis of the other lows.

I guess. But with a cutoff low like that, just hard to accept. Oh well. Surface is resolved last.

Still, marked improvement at h5 for UKIE, we take for now. It agrees with the GFS on that front... just struggling to get anything to happen at the surface.

You tellin' me this isn't doing shit for us?

UKIE....

There's a snowhole I know

GEFS h5 looks pretty nice

Me likey when blue go big big on map

That would be an insane storm as depicted. VERY windy.

Storm just gets stuck right over the bay lol. Dumping.

In the grand scheme of things this really looks like a "noise" run. Obviously the delicacy of the setup means big changes to snow totals but the things getting messed up compared to 12z are things that are probably on a scale much too fine to worry about right now. It is still very close.

Higher heights in the west as well.