baltosquid

Not a huge change on the ICON ensembles but it does look like a more coastal and less WV situation for MSLP.

Yeah this is not a small difference between the AIGFS and GFS. Latter is way better for us.

Seems like a theme of 12z so far has been flattening the flow over the central CONUS. Nice because it should help with keeping the primary from rushing north so much. Hopefully it is a trend.

Kinda looks like an ENE shift or even just east. Which I don’t mind.

Quebec low being stronger is probably good? Would drive confluence and get us colder to start.

FWIW RRFS is south/colder at 12z, at least initially. Not sure what it will look like as we get to the transfer or lack thereof stage.

I want to put myself in the shoes of someone to our north who may prefer amping. I think if I was looking at the stuff out west and potential fragility of that phase, with the Baja piece threatening to lag, I’d probably be sweating a bit. Confluence also has threatened to increase. Still seems guaranteed to amp some but when you reframe it like this I think it shows a lot of the angst is putting the blinders on. I don’t think we’re gonna get the dream all-snow scenario but there are real risks to the phase that I’m sure we’d be honing in on if we were hoping for a phase.

Oh, interesting trend on the ICON popping into view. Check the low around Hudson Bay. Run to run it is impinging downstream on the NS energy that wants to phase. Could that help string out the energy perhaps and de-amp?

Flatter flow as snow begins. Phase is a bit more disjointed.

ICON hanging back the Baja low this run, thru 36. Don’t know how well it will play with the NS yet.

Just glad to see the NAM not phase as readily, not concerned about the surface at the edge of its range.

06z finally a tick colder on the Euro/Ai/Eps is great to wake up to. Let’s make it a trend.

I've been mentally averaging 10:1 and Kuchera, though if the mix line becomes more of a threat (as in, CAD is lost sooner than pretty much all modeling shows right now) might revert to 10:1.

CMC still wants the primary to go north at 78 it looks like.

Wants to get Baltimore to nearly 20 on Kuchera with coastal stuff.

A lot more action on the exit this run, and I think we could switch back to snow, at least the metros.

Our highs are stronger on this run, hopefully can resist the primary.

Baja low is more cutoff (now cutoff at 567 by hr21), but it was close to being cutoff at 18z anyway so not a huge change.

ICON ensembles. Love that high. Verbatim less low signaling in WV/OHV

Lol I mentioned how rough it was earlier. Idk I have a suspicion this thing ain't ready for prime time but I guess I have to look closer at <48 hrs to see how it really fares. Or maybe we will get skunked.

RRFS A looks better thru 68 hours. Brought the STJ piece more south and looks like it's less interested in a quick phase. Lower heights out front.

Just a tiny tick south away from catching some light backend stuff too in the metros. Definitely an acceptable outcome if we can establish it as a goalpost or near one.

ICON looks colder at 700 and 850 and seems more efficient with the thump. Mixing line does not want to budge but does look like there's more press for a souther low track. Right direction, even if we want more of an improvement.

We had a closed 700mb low over Kansas at 18z 84hr, though!

Yeah would def take the NAM. Looks like it would have snowed for at least a few more hours and hard.