Sunday
...Mid-Atlantic...
Currently, the best overlap of enhanced west/southwesterly shear and
MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg appears to be across the Mid-Atlantic from
eastern VA into southeast PA/southern NJ within a moist axis and
pre-frontal surface trough. Scattered thunderstorms may develop
within this area during peak heating and pose a risk mainly for
damaging gusts. Stronger southwesterly flow aloft is expected with
northward extent into PA/NY and portions of New England. However,
degree of destabilization is uncertain due to cloud cover and
possible remnant convection over the Ohio Valley from the Day
2/Saturday period moving across the Upper Ohio Valley early in the
period ahead of the surface cold front. Depending on model trends
and mesoscale details emanating from prior day convection, severe
probability could be adjusted northward in subsequent outlooks.