tiger_deF

Amazing how bad the GFS and ensembles look compared to the rest of the models. If I had to infer the state of all the models just off it's recent runs, I'd think it was a total whiff and the board was melting down

Just now, JC-CT said:

It really is much quieter in here lol. I think people went to bed too.

It was inevitable that the minute a weenie here canceled a flight back to stormchase, things would trend more positive 

If the 0z models are as bad or worse than the 18z and 12z I'm seriously going to lose my shit. It's my fault for getting so invested, but I've convinced half the block we're in for a big one

If the Canadian is right and the max about is less than a foot, this winter gets an automatic F. It would be such an absolute waste of potential 

The way I see it, while the general trend has been East the main player in this shift has been the S stream, which has repeatedly been buried farther and farther West. The North stream, in most models but especially the Euro, has actually looked more conductive as of late. If we can get a slight east shift in the southern stream, or even just halt the general regression, we still might have a HECS in the cards

That being said, I fully expect the 18z suite to make me look like a complete fool 

What would be more satisfying to the board; to see solutions converge West and more intense after staying relatively weaker and more Eastern, or to see the same strong, intense storm modelled with only small wobbles up until the start time?

Friendship ended with 12z suite (outside of NAM), now 18z suite is my best friend

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol, you stole my line....I was gonna reply that hopefully it means the ICON super computer burnt out and can't be replaced.

The ICON supercomputer? I was expecting the ICON room-sized vacuum tube computer

I think the upcoming 12z and 18z suites are going to be absolutely crucial to determining whether the storm will be a whiffer except for SNE, or a monster blockbuster storm. We need to stop the East trends, see full phasing continue to be supported, and see more capture for the upper end scenarios to have a shot at play out

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

This. The nothing members. HATE that's it's still on the table.

Nothing members as in the storm is so far East that impacts are minimal except for SNE, or nothing members as in they literally show no storm at all?

4 hours ago, Henry's Weather said:

Please don't worry about that, I've been on the thread for years

As someone who turns 21 in April I thought I was the youngest member of the board for a long time... I've never felt so old

Excited to track this (hopefully a) monster with you all! 

Really hope we see more tuck coming up in tonight's model runs. Euro, ICON, and some earlier runs of other models have shown a the beginnings of of tuck with due N/NNW motion for portions of the approach. The storm tucking in or not is the difference between widespread 2'+ and sporadic areas of 12-18 IMO

NAM is notably West with with low at h72

11 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Taking a break from this forum perhaps permanently. Wasn't meant as a political jab. Clown show. Pray for Joe B's parents. Yeah, because that totally has something to do with weather. This is a weather board. He is an awful met. Sorry for telling the truth. 

Look, I couldn't agree more that he is a terrible met, I find his political positions reprehensible, and everything you said about Tucker Carlson was spot on. However, we humans are emotional creatures with finite lifespans, and therefore the deaths of anyone close to us, especially our parents, is devastating. There was no need to ruminate on the tragedy that befell him at all, and having it fresh in everyone's mind makes ripping him a new one seem tone-deaf at best, and callous at worst.

Since no one has actually posted the EPS ensemble mean, here's my artistic interpretation inspired by some of the takes I've heard

EDIT: 2 posts late....

By this afternoon and evening NAM should finally be in range. We'll have to wait for tommorrow until they start producing full-event snowfall kuchies, but by this afternoon we'll be able to see the evolution of the storm regarding phasing

I doubt the CMC will verify, but look at the 10m winds on this sucker. Nearly looks like the wind profile of a bonafide Cat 2 hurricane

Come Sunday morning on the GFS and it's still snowing... if this was verbatim lots of eastern areas would see well over a day of accumulating snow... and look at that vort!

6z vs 12z

4 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

My co-worker, with whom I share an office, is talking about this event. Big hype.

It's cringey.

I've whipped up the entire immunology lab I work in with talk of a big storm on Friday/Saturday and now they are all independently hyped, if this busts then I'll be the cringey one 

Is the NAM 84h generally considered to be more or less accurate than the 84h GFS?

Some of these EPS members get in the 940's, when's the last time we've had a winter system that deep?

Looks like the cards are setting up for another model battle, should be exciting to resolve this week!

Compared to the EPS members this would be a middle of the pack-lower end solution, but I'd take the GFS verbatim. Hopefully it holds this look, if the southern stream is just a little more cooperative then boom