Cary67

As depicted the GFS front end thump band won't produce the results its showing in LOT. Will need deformation band to swing through and stay all snow to get anything over a few inches.

Euro is bad this year but its track is similar to the GFS which gets a bit wonky late .Cut it over Des Moines reduce the absurd qpf amts by 50% per usual and good start for MSP this winter. Pattern should resume El Nino look with hopes further south in OV and eastern Ohio into the NE. That gets you to mid late January.

Icon came in colder so far

Beneficial rains at least. Maybe some front end ZR or snow

Based on Euro performance divide totals by 5 and move track either 300 miles NW or SE. Even if the system came together as shown the mesoscale NAM would eventually show overrunning snow cut way down and WAA winning out with mostly rain before being dry slotted in LOT on that track.

I think Castro means starting beyond day 7 not continuing. It was spitting rain/snow last evening and had to remind myself that was actual precip falling from the sky

I think whatever there is of a storm track this year favors lower and mid OV and points east with little SER in this El Nino look. Eastern parts of subforum and EC and interior NE look to cash in most as they strengthen when they hit the Atlantic

Its that window of a few weeks that gives you most of your snow

Heavily favored to be less than 36". Only 2 out of 13 yrs finished higher than average if you throw out the blizzard of 1999. Especially since those types of storms hit about once in 15yrs. Its almost a given this year will be below normal as we close out 1/3 of meteorological winter being blanked

Daily climate summary only thread needed. Although this thread probably shaved a page or two off the banter bitch thread.

Euro hasn't been good this season. But then again models never look good when there's nothing to show

At some point vaccinations/day better exceed new covid cases/day

18Z GFS comical. Chicago looks to be in a dead spot. Systems detour or fall apart as they get close. Snow shield for ORD in full effect

Euro OP definite hail Mary. Not much ensemble support and no other model support save one run days ago on the GFS. Based on this pseudo El Nino pattern that has established itself would favor a wave developing further east affecting Eastern Ind, Ohio, PA, and interior NE. GFS, GEM, and Ukie seem to show this more often.

Something you'll never hear from the POTUS

Think at some point we will get that few week window between now and Mid April that will boost snow totals from noteworthy futility to just brutal.lol

Would have to ask stats guys but would think if we get shut out for the rest of December ie< 1" along with no October, November bail out. Pretty good statistical chance we end up BN for seasonal snowfall

Very little phasing. Things blow up east on the coast due to the ocean. Right now trough set up to the east allows alot of weak clippers to blow up once off the coast of NE

Yep then lied that the prisoner escaped through the window when all he did was open the back door. No leg shackles just hand cuffs. Just ran off. Have to admit before the era of surveillance cameras, body cameras, and cellphone videos just how much lying, corruption, and covering up were police departments engaged in. Scary to speculate

If they continue to have reactions from people who had no prior history of anaphylaxis that will force them to give vaccine in hospital settings only. If they can't figure out why or perhaps its an issue with this mRNA class vaccine then may see issues with Moderna's version also. Not to negatively speculate but already a delay in shipments, possible limitations to setting it can be administered could equal long delays. Really have to wonder if this gets substantially delayed into fall or early next winter to vaccinate a decent percentage of the population will alot of the population already have been exposed anyways. With infection rates the way they are now it seems so many people will have been exposed it might be better to filter people through an antigen test and prioritize vaccination of those who still haven't been exposed. Would still expect frontline workers, nursing homes, people over 65 etc.. to get it first. But once into general population maybe a different strategy?

A clipper miss to the north and the rinse repeat El Nino track providing winter from Detroit and Central Ohio and pts east through the end of the month. Outside of the 2 day rainer giving us all our December precip its been warm and dry since late October.

Well about every 10 years or so something should phase

Over/under on when ORD hits 15" on the season. Will guess Feb.15th

I think its a misconception that most mutations are more virulent. Thought the coronavirus group were relatively stable anyways and if anything over time mutations would favor less virulent strains. Selection would be to enhance and propagate the virus as much as possible not to kill the host quicker.

Xmas flurries are the best