Cary67

Just weighing in on this living in the NW burbs of Chicago. First and foremost all the healthcare workers, grocery store clerks, and all other essential jobs that are needed my sincerest thanks. Also sympathy and understanding for all those who have to go to work and can't work virtually from home to provide income for themselves and their families. I do find it disconcerting the behavior of some of my neighbors and I am sure that is being mirrored throughout the suburbs. All you have to do is glance 20-40 miles east into Chicago proper or look at NewYork, Italy or Louisiana for that matter to see what kind of protocols are being followed.Here in my own subdivision I see playdates with other people's kids, neighbors still over at other neighbors but you know their 72" apart so its all good. Joggers, bikers, parents teaching their kids to ride a bike for the first time etc..It seems until cases start happening in their own area they seem to be marginalizing the spirit of social distancing. We have been home inside for the better part of three weeks and having groceries delivered. I started the car just to drive it a bit. Went by Walmart packed. Portillos drive thru line packed, curb side service with cars separated the minimum distance and packed. Leads me to believe suburbs will ramp up with cases just delayed from the major urban areas by a few weeks. Wouldn't be surprised to see our peaks in May to early June.

Glad to see everyone enjoying "spring".Only 4 weeks to go

Actually GFS shows system splitting and weakening as it heads east. Should verify

Hmm.. extrapolating the Halloween storm this wasn't due to show up until Easter.

Expected. Cold rain inbound

Thx, that is interesting. Wonder if ORD has seen 5/10 recent winters below normal temps also. I am sure by next winter my gullible this will be a great snow season attitude will resurface.lol

It is true that the NOAA predominantly puts out winter forecasts for the conus that are mostly AN. That may not verify but I can understand why they do. I would say your AN or near normal snowfall this year was more a matter of luck. Not that ORD hasnt had a run of AN snowfalls the last 10 years. Will see but I think it will become increasingly difficult for the pattern to line up for persistent cold rather then persistent warm. I also think you are going to keep hearing more often in subsequent winters,"If only we had some cold air to work with this system would have been great."

Its snowing

NOAA has it right. Just copy and paste AN temps and BN to EC for snowfall. 8/10 years it will be right.

Looking to crack 30" for ORD. This is how you get to "normal winters"

Bring on the 40s. 6-7 weeks till Spring

Now thats the kind of futility a winter like this should represent. Detroit and SEMI literally manufacturing snow this year. I guess there seems to be that corridor running from Detroit up to Rochester NY, and Toronto where weak systems over the midwest deepened this year somewhat.

Its a DAB+ pound town

Lets keep ORD under 30".For meteorological winter under 20"

ORD will crack 30" so everyone can look back years from now and say it was another near normal winter. Springfield starting to lengthen their lead over ORD even as Madison sits at over 50"

Scars run deep for model trust. Hard not to Jerry Taft every forecast.

Looks generous for NW burbs.

Models just sent us back to the Stone Age for forecasting

Icon and CMC trying to perform CPR on this event to save Chicago

If the next one is this winter I will ride the lamest, weakest, most SE sheared model run there is. Ukie doesn't always show that it just did this time

The call of riding the Ukie is not so much its performance. The UKMET is one of the tallest midgets. The score for the highest verification is whatever model shows the weakest lamest event.

This point and click going to go down... down...

2.5" call looking legit

Just start looking at Ukie as soon as possible.I think its overlooked since it doesn't run out as far or as often. Maybe its not buying into delayed phase

See the foreign model bleeding continues even as 12k NAM gives Champaign WSW. Hoosier and Detroit reeling in the Ukie. After this year no complaints about NW and stronger after SE weaker has ruled this winter