Cary67
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Everything posted by Cary67
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At least the Euro has had a tendency to overamp solutions this winter
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Ukie on board now interesting
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Yeah the UKMET not on board with a closed low riding due north so weaker, SE, and OV not off the table
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6Z GFS. Ukie more of an Apps runner
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Concerned the phrase "thread the needle"is the norm for every system that develops this winter and far too many other winters recently.
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The only certainty is those qpf snow numbers will undoubtedly diminish significantly as time progresses
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Have a tendency to think UKMET may lead the way
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ORD will get some snow scraps eventually
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Seasonal snow totals for ORD <15" by Jan.15th looking money. Bets on <20" by Feb.15th?
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Too many winters have jackpot areas that seem to get hit over and over. DTW a few years back had the snow magnet.
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Haven't put alot of stock in the Canadian. Always thought UKMET better at verifying. Icon somewhat similar will see if UKMET and Euro move towards that.
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Storm tracks once established love to stay that way. Would be third system for Eastern Ohio, Pennsylvania etc.. Then another coastal on the 4th possible
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12Z Ukie
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Would take notice if UKMET shifted south. Don't think they will though
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Had enough pixie dust to cover the windshield so set a better Xmas mood
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Yeah seems to be a somewhat consistent track over central to east central IA. MSP been looking good for several runs on various models. Will see if that holds up.
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Does seem to be some model consensus for the Dec. 30th storm cutting NW of us.
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Had it cutting over DesMoines not bad.
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Interesting always thought deeply -NAOs usually had a trough position too far east of us
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Been a -AO during most of this Decembers suck fest. Not sure tanking -NAO is great for anything but clippers and watching storms for the lower OV and Noreasters. Could be good for downstate IL and Indiana though.
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As depicted the GFS front end thump band won't produce the results its showing in LOT. Will need deformation band to swing through and stay all snow to get anything over a few inches.
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Euro is bad this year but its track is similar to the GFS which gets a bit wonky late .Cut it over Des Moines reduce the absurd qpf amts by 50% per usual and good start for MSP this winter. Pattern should resume El Nino look with hopes further south in OV and eastern Ohio into the NE. That gets you to mid late January.
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Icon came in colder so far
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Beneficial rains at least. Maybe some front end ZR or snow
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Based on Euro performance divide totals by 5 and move track either 300 miles NW or SE. Even if the system came together as shown the mesoscale NAM would eventually show overrunning snow cut way down and WAA winning out with mostly rain before being dry slotted in LOT on that track.
