whoosh
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Everything posted by whoosh
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Picking up GOM moisture perhaps
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Reviewing SREF plumes and GEFS member plumes and spreads this morning, there is still quite a spread of 850 data, 2mT and QPF contributing to the derived uncertainties.
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Merits repeating, seemingly endlessly. Thanks, Ricky.
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Polar context: which will surely bring down more frigid air
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Doesn't look very typical to me (morning of 28th), at any level.
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OK, we already know it's going to be cold. So here's another 4panel, just in case it helps ;-}
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It appears that Gulf moisture and 850 temp convergence is not getting far enough North.
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and worse than that, they refer to individual op runs as as some kind of good/bad/whatever solely from the perspective of their desires. That's not science. Some folks even use the totally uninformative qualifier "sick". Oh well.
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and area-wide from the 3k ...
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No. The one "Expected" graphic is manually generated. All the others are not; only using multiple model outputs.
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However, the 50% probability tops out at 7" unless I'm understanding badly. https://www.weather.gov/lot/winter
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Kids and Dads love Metra!
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Somebody recently asked about this ...
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In other words, it quantifies the magnitude of uncertainty for small differences of initial conditions/assumptions.
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Noting the Trend ....
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I look here ... <http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/tdorian/gefs/EMCGEFSplumes.html> before I look at GFS snow panels.
