clskinsfan
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Everything posted by clskinsfan
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I am talking about the NAM.
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NAM is a disaster run.
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25/18. Already below forecasted low of 26.
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NW of Winchester VA
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DT's map. I always like the way he puts them together.
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I just got over Covid for the 3rd time. Lots of stuff going around right now. Hope you all feel better.
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29/18. Temps really dropped fast once the sun went down. Hope we get some clouds in here before sunrise. Happy with the cold so far though.
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All you have to do is look at the radar on the gulf coast and you can see why the models have upped the QPF. It is juicy down there.
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37/18. High of 38 today. Dew point has already started falling from a high of 21. RGEM is either the most consistent model of all time. Or it is going to go down in flames thinking it is. Feel pretty confident that my 3+ inch snowstorm drought will end tomorrow. And that is fine by me. Would I like to actually get 8? Of course. But I will enjoy whatever I get.
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35/20. Forecast high of 42 is going to bust. Will be watching to see those temps crash tonight before the cloud cover moves in.
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Its radar watching time now. Tons of moisture getting tapped out of the gulf right now. Probably why the GFS juiced up a little bit.
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Its gonna look like mashed potatoes falling from the sky
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GFS looks awesome for the Northern Shenandoah Valley and the Panhandle. Heavy snow bomb during the daylight hours. Sign me up. Very similar to the RGEM with total qpf:
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Its down about .2 in QPF for the event. Still basically an inch of QPF region wide.
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RGEM still hasnt budged. Slight tick north with the vort this run. Starts as snow into the cities and stays all snow west of the Blue Ridge.
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I'll be at concert there Saturday night. Should be a fun drive home :)
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Got it. I am not a northern MD geographical master. I have a place in OC. Really the only part of MD I know anymore. Had a Grandmom in Westminster for decades. But she's been gone for a while. I know she got snow there and was a weenie like me though.
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Go look at the GFS from 42 to 45:
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Just chase and dont be miserable at all. You are what 30 minutes from Westminster?
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You would be fine until you get to the top of the mountain just past Round Hill. Then you take your own life in your hands
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The Blue Ridge is the cutoff. Makes some sense. The Valley is colder. But too close for comfort even here.
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GFS drops 5 inches in Winchester in 3 hours. Its a Mauling. If its half right will be the heaviest snow I have seen since 2016. Literal crush job.
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RGEM still didnt flinch on track. sub 1000 just north of OC. A bit warmer in the upper levels. But it refuses to change storm track for like 65 days straight. EDIT: And that 12 inch lolli NW of Winchester is real close to @EastCoast NPZ old home.
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I think most east of the fall line would take sleet on snow over rain though. NAM is most likely full of crap. But that is probably an acceptable outcome for most.
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Bwahahahaha! You see that pink 10 inch lolli NW of Winchester? Thats where @EastCoast NPZ lived last year. You cant make this shit up.
