clskinsfan
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Everything posted by clskinsfan
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Over to sleet here. It was fun while it lasted.
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850 Frontogenesis is good for the Northern Shen Valley and the Panhandle. Where is the heavy precip?
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Just took my first Jebwalk in falling snow in a long time. It was exhilarating. About a quarter inch here nw of Winchester so far. Light snow 29 degrees.
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If it actually snows there. Sleet pellets nw of Winchester right now. We will see what happens when heavier stuff comes in. But if I was gonna chase I would go up into central PA.
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Only a 7 inch difference here between the NAM and 3K with 10 hours until start time. That model is utter garbage.
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I am talking about the NAM.
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NAM is a disaster run.
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25/18. Already below forecasted low of 26.
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NW of Winchester VA
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DT's map. I always like the way he puts them together.
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I just got over Covid for the 3rd time. Lots of stuff going around right now. Hope you all feel better.
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29/18. Temps really dropped fast once the sun went down. Hope we get some clouds in here before sunrise. Happy with the cold so far though.
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All you have to do is look at the radar on the gulf coast and you can see why the models have upped the QPF. It is juicy down there.
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37/18. High of 38 today. Dew point has already started falling from a high of 21. RGEM is either the most consistent model of all time. Or it is going to go down in flames thinking it is. Feel pretty confident that my 3+ inch snowstorm drought will end tomorrow. And that is fine by me. Would I like to actually get 8? Of course. But I will enjoy whatever I get.
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35/20. Forecast high of 42 is going to bust. Will be watching to see those temps crash tonight before the cloud cover moves in.
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Its radar watching time now. Tons of moisture getting tapped out of the gulf right now. Probably why the GFS juiced up a little bit.
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Its gonna look like mashed potatoes falling from the sky
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GFS looks awesome for the Northern Shenandoah Valley and the Panhandle. Heavy snow bomb during the daylight hours. Sign me up. Very similar to the RGEM with total qpf:
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Its down about .2 in QPF for the event. Still basically an inch of QPF region wide.
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RGEM still hasnt budged. Slight tick north with the vort this run. Starts as snow into the cities and stays all snow west of the Blue Ridge.
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I'll be at concert there Saturday night. Should be a fun drive home :)
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Got it. I am not a northern MD geographical master. I have a place in OC. Really the only part of MD I know anymore. Had a Grandmom in Westminster for decades. But she's been gone for a while. I know she got snow there and was a weenie like me though.
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Go look at the GFS from 42 to 45:
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Just chase and dont be miserable at all. You are what 30 minutes from Westminster?
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You would be fine until you get to the top of the mountain just past Round Hill. Then you take your own life in your hands
