clskinsfan

Just keep those higher heights over Greenland all winter and we will have our chances. At least the NS will get buckled a few times and get cold air into our area. There can be no snow without it.

At least it appears we wont be dealing with a putrid Atlantic this year. I will take my chances with a -NAO winter for once. It has been a unicorn for years at this point.

Never saw a flake out here in Winchester. But it is a nice cold crisp winter morning regardless.

Yeah. I think we are toast out this way. Enjoy the flakes those of you to the south.

12K gets us into the snow. But not DC.

19z HRRR gets snow into DC.

Any flakes at all are good at this point.

Still think we see flakes out here in Winchester. Not a big deal. But any flakes are a bonus after last years debacle.

Phin did we lose you in the MA forum? You move to the north?

What about the 40 inches I got in 2016? And it is good to see DT back on here. And yes I am salivating on the mid December look. We have a REAL chance. Which is not something we could say over the past 2 winters.

This is true. But it is funny how the really big ones are usually picked up at long range by the models. The 2010 blizzards and 2016 were modelled almost perfectly a week out.

It is just nice to see those higher heights poke into Greenland for a change. Even if it is transient. That has been absent for the past 3 winters. Hopefully we can get some real blocking this year.

No way for it to tap the gulf. The one thing I like seeing is all of the blocking modelled up north. Hopefully that comes true. Blocking that severe is a pretty stable pattern. Although as modelled I would be worried about suppression. But I am always worried about something when it comes to snow around here.

Tasty rates there at 336

BWI: 19.5 DCA: 12.5 IAD: 21.5 RIC: 8.5 SBY: 6.5 OKV IMBY prediction: 27.5

I am just gonna say the weather has been perfect the past couple of days. Warm days and cool nights rock.

First flakes of the winter season NW of Winchester. Right on time. Early November is when we usually get them.

I thought it was you. Thanks PSU. And I am glad to be back for the winter. Is Bob back yet?

Someone last year wrote a post (Maybe PSU but I cant remember) about the statistics and importance of a -NAO for our snows. The overwhelming majority of our snows seemed to occur with a -NAO even if it is only transient.

This is basically every winter for us regardless of Enso state though. Our area simply does not do well without some blocking.

Out here it has been so cool that I cant anything to sprout yet. Gonna have to move all of my pots into the house I guess. The remainder of April looks pretty cold as well.

The 18Z GFS is about the biggest weenie run I have seen in 3 years.

Cobb data from the 12Z GFS run. Huge drop in surface temps from previous runs: DCA 200118/1100Z 119 16006KT 28.1F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0 200118/1200Z 120 14007KT 27.4F SNOW 5:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.044 6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 200118/1500Z 123 15009KT 28.8F SNPL 1:1| 0.2|| 0.38|| 0.00|| 0.216 2:1| 0.6|| 0.38|| 0.00|| 0.28 11| 89| 0 200118/1800Z 126 18009KT 31.5F SNPL 1:1| 0.2|| 0.40|| 0.00|| 0.229 1:1| 0.7|| 0.78|| 0.00|| 0.50 13| 87| 0 200118/2100Z 129 17012KT 33.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.207 1:1| 0.7|| 0.78|| 0.00|| 0.71 0| 0|100 IAD 200118/1000Z 118 15007KT 27.9F SNOW 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0 200118/1100Z 119 14008KT 26.3F SNOW 7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022 7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 100| 0| 0 200118/1200Z 120 15009KT 26.5F SNOW 7:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054 7:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 200118/1500Z 123 16013KT 27.4F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.30|| 0.00|| 0.152 7:1| 0.6|| 0.30|| 0.00|| 0.24 0| 96| 4 200118/1800Z 126 18012KT 30.3F SNPL 2:1| 0.4|| 0.27|| 0.00|| 0.204 3:1| 1.0|| 0.57|| 0.00|| 0.44 34| 66| 0 200118/2100Z 129 19012KT 34.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.124 3:1| 1.0|| 0.57|| 0.00|| 0.57 0| 0|100 BWI 200118/1500Z 123 15009KT 28.3F SNOW 9:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.198 9:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20 100| 0| 0 200118/1800Z 126 18009KT 31.0F SNPL 7:1| 2.6|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 0.374 8:1| 4.4|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 0.57 85| 15| 0 200118/2100Z 129 18011KT 33.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.327 8:1| 4.4|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 0.90 0| 0|100 MRB 200118/0900Z 117 15009KT 28.1F SNOW 14:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 14:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0 200118/1000Z 118 15011KT 24.0F SNOW 14:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.047 14:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 100| 0| 0 200118/1100Z 119 14011KT 24.2F SNOW 11:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.072 12:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13 100| 0| 0 200118/1200Z 120 14012KT 24.5F SNOW 7:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.068 10:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 200118/1500Z 123 16015KT 26.0F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.34|| 0.00|| 0.171 10:1| 2.1|| 0.34|| 0.00|| 0.37 3| 97| 0 200118/1800Z 126 17012KT 27.9F SNPL 6:1| 1.4|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 0.233 8:1| 3.4|| 0.56|| 0.00|| 0.60 53| 47| 0 200118/2100Z 129 19010KT 32.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021 8:1| 3.4|| 0.56|| 0.00|| 0.62 0| 0|100

PSU touched on it up above. It is REALLY close to big hit here. Definitely worth watching for sure.

We dont really even want it to transfer out here. We would just dry slot sooner. Obviously it could be better for you guys to the east. Especially the Eastern Shore. But for those of us to NW we want exactly what we see now.