clskinsfan
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Everything posted by clskinsfan
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Got some virga on my doorstep out this way on Nexrad. Would love for this to start as early as possible. Get as much snow as possible before the flip.
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35/25 here NW if Winchester. Temps are not going to be an issue out this way. Precip looks to be moving pretty quickly on radar as well. Maybe into this area before midnight.
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12Z GFS moves the max stripe a little north this run. Has more frozen for everyone as well. Looking good for an inch or two in the favored spots (Winchester to Carroll).
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6Z GFS is a weenie run for the Shenandoah Valley and WV. The Ski resorts are loving what they are seeing for pretty much the entire run.
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GFS is still loving Mappy land. Snow at 30 degrees works. We get skunked out here.
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The NAO is really important for our monster storms though. In order to score the big ones we need either the 50/50 or a displaced PV under it acting like a 50/50. That is when we get really crushed.
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Hi Res GFS likes the WAA for NW of town. A couple inches of slop.
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Not over for us yet. We can score some with the WAA before it shuts off. It really depends on that HP over the top for us. It is rotting rapidly on most of the models Goes from 1038 to 1026 on the high res Euro. Keep it pumping in the cold air a little longer and we could see a couple of inches.
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Just a little bit stronger HP over the top next weekend and the WAA could be decent at least. I agree with the rest that the ULL is probably a pipe dream. But we might be able to steal a couple of inches up front.
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Long range MJO forecast is still really favoring 8-1-2 for the heart of the winter. A lot of the long range stuff is looking pretty favorable IMO. At least I dont think we will be seeing wall to wall torch this winter. And the storm chances should be there.
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Was out walking around all day today in the Harrisonburg area. Mid 30's all day. I was quite comfortable in all honesty. Kind of surprised how quickly my body adjusted to the cold temps.
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Had my first dusting of the year today. Off and on snow showers/flurries for most of the day. And coming down pretty well right now. Light snow 27 degrees.
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Mid-Atlantic winter 2019-20 snowfall contest
clskinsfan replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
BWI: 27.5 DCA:18.5 IAD:30.5 RIC:16.0 SBY: 13.5 OKV: 35.5 -
Happened out this way with Sandy. Mountains just to my SW got over 6 inches from it. High Res Euro is interesting for the 81 corridor next Friday. Just enough cold air left to get a little snow in the area before the flip to rain. Something to watch at least.
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First flakes of the season out in the Winchester area today. Kind of nice to have you guys to the east get some at the same time.
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Agreed. I am still thinking it is a Nov climo "event". Strong cold front with 15 minutes of snow. That is just normal for this time of year for our area.
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I would think it ends up the way we usually get our first flakes out here and that is with the frontal passage itself. Still time to work out the timing details on the waves though.
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Love seeing the Aleutian low showing up on guidance. Winter is on.
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Long range MJO forecasts all look pretty good still. With almost all of them running through 7-8-1 in the heart of winter.
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Which is a pretty normal time frame for those of us to the north and west. Usually from a frontal passage. The difference here is the follow up storm has a chance to be legit for a lot of us.
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The line matters a ton too. When we were younger we did Carnival, Royal and NCL a lot. Whichever was cheaper. And yes. Some of those cruises were shit shows. We have since moved on to Celebrity and it is just much more laid back. Anyway. Dont want to hijack the thread.
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I must be pretty low than. Because I love cruising. And it is still the best value in a vacation you can get.
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Yep. Beautiful outside though. Snow pack should stick around for most of the week too. I was actually surprised how bad the back roads are. Solid ice. All of them.
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2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion
clskinsfan replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Yeah I saw that. Horrifying in all honesty. -
It is wild that the cutoff was just west of the Blue Ridge. You guys usually do well with your elevation.
