Weather Will

Ok, just to start getting warmed up for winter, some WB 12Z EPS probability maps:

WB 12Z EPS supports the global at Day 5.

WB 12z EURO at Day 5; old-fashioned nor'easter....

WB 12Z GEFS; hug P24 if you are west of 95; 3% chance

WB 12Z ICON upper level low track is much further SE and stronger than the GFS.

WB 12Z Day 5 rain totals for the globals. ICON (shifted back west); GFS still DC eastward; Canadian is Day 6 because it is slower; AI a tick west of 6Z and also slower like Canadian so also Day 6.; EURO is a solid hit for everyone and would cause flooding on the shore.

Well maybe some SE ridge will move the storm track just far enough NW so we can get snow rather than dry, cold air this winter in the NW burbs...

WB 12Z EPS

WB 12Z EURO...looks like ICON.

I'm hugging the ICON for the upcoming storm. It nailed the track of the last coastal. (WB 12Z: about .25 is for Wed.)

WB 18Z ensembles. GEFS has a few members tracking close to the mid Atlantic coast.

WB 12Z EPS and AI ensembles are off the coast for the coastal.

WB 12Z AI is a tick east. Euro spins off the SE coast and then dissipates over the SC/GA border.

WB 12Z GEFS mean is well east of its global.

Big shift west on the 12Z GFS for the potential coastal early next week. Will also post GEFS when it comes out.

WB 12Z globals for midweek.

WB latest EURO seasonal thru March by month.

WB latest EURO weekly, my first digital snow of the season for early November! Let the tracking begin!!!

Didn't the EURO AI have several runs run up the coast before caving to the ICON/Canadian?

What a complete fold by the EURO models. Hail the new ICON/ Canadian Kings!!! In all seriousness, I will not fall for the EURO snow storm looks this winter when the other models show nothing....

WB 18Z EURO is not letting SC off the hook yet.

Humberto is a beast that is now moving due west.....hmmm.... wonder if the counter clockwise flow around the TD is actually influencing it. No model has it a threat coming to the coast yet. WB 18Z Humberto tracks. NHC excerpt from 5pm discussion. Only a slight westward adjustment was made to the track forecast. Humberto is moving slightly faster, but westward, near 9 kt. The hurricane is still forecast to move around the subtropical ridge for the next few days before it interacts with the aforementioned trough and accelerates quickly northeastward. The spread in the model track guidance has increased since the last advisory, particularly with regard to how fast Humberto will accelerate northeastward in 4 or 5 days. Confidence in that aspect of the forecast has therefore decreased, even though little change was made to the official forecast. The NHC forecast remains generally based on a blend of the GDMI, the AIGEFS and HCCA.

WB 12Z EPS. Another dry two weeks as it looks like tropical moisture is blocked from coming north. Cool shot coming late week otherwise mild overall.

Light drizzle, perfect for my grass seed.

JB just posted and of course likes the EURO solution of Imelda getting trapped under the ridge and threatening NC northward.