Weather Will

Looks like the model is showing reinforcing cold air draining in Monday evening as discussed by Sterling NWS in their late afternoon discussion.  If that verifies we are talking surface temps near freezing through Tuesday am and some potentially serious ice/ snow for both Monday rush hours and Tuesday am.

2 hours ago, WesternFringe said:



11 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

0z 12k nam looks good for wave one. Snow for northern tier. Mix everyone else. Mix line further south through 29hrs. Surface and 850’s look slightly better. 

Edit...north of Baltimore is really gonna like this Nam run I think...

snow dc north through 39hrs...dare I say a nam’ing in progress? 

850s look about 30-50 miles south at :9 hours.   Good trends as we close in...

Amazing in 2018, only God know how much ?!$&@ will be on the ground by Tuesday.  Can only laugh harder looking at the long range thread...But I still love guessing!!!!

Just now, Weather Will said:

Looks like the Weather Service is forecasting a coastal solution....

7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

The GFS is pretty much following up on my morning post in regards to what I felt the EPS may be moving towards.

Compare the overnight GFS run to the latest one.

 

 

Much weaker primary, an adjusted track to the east, and now we are seeing signs of a possible transfer into the Tennessee/Kentucky Valley. And the reason I mentioned earlier that I didn't think redevelopment around OBX was off the table is shown here. As you can see lower pressures are now showing in that region and if you move forward in time you see coastal development. One has to wonder if what we may be eventually looking at is a hop scotching of the low pressure into Tenn/Kentucky and then off the coast where the coastal becomes the dominate low in fairly rapid order. Also, not that I am a fan of the ICON, but it is also coming in weaker with an adjusted track to the East. As far as the CMC it is out to lunch. But we are talking only some of the model's op runs here so let's see what the others have to say and especially what the ensembles think before we maybe start buying into the possibility of this weaker more easterly primary solution.

 

 

Just now, clskinsfan said:

The GFS is weenietastic. And damn close to a major storm.

I agree.  If the transfer occurs earlier and if the storm tracks more ENE, it’s big....again something to track.  Reality is timing is everything.  We can track every index, analog, etc....sometimes you just need a little luck.  Be at the right place, at the right time.

Something to track in February, better than last year!!!

Looks like .5 to .75 for the event.  Temps a close call in DC, but definitely in the game from about 7 days out and an operational perspective.  EURO OP can be a tease this far out but makes it 3 runs in a row showing a moderate wintry event for the 12-13th.

Heavy winds and snow squalls going through Brunswick.  (reports from family at home)......will see if anything makes it to DC in an hour or so.

Snow train ride home.  Left DC at 330.  Liquid rain;little sleet.  By the time I got to Silver Spring it was all snow.  Now to Point of Rocks 2-3 inches everywhere....will have to clean my car off at Brunswick....best train ride home in my 20 plus years of commuting!

To keep things in perspective:  If you look at the top DC winter storms:  Eight from late January into mid February (1899, 1922, 1966, 1999 (ice), 2000, 2010, 2011, 2016), Three have fallen on President's Day (1979, 1983, 2003); and one in March.  I don't give up until March 14 (Superstorm'93).  

Well, pleasantly surprised....snow did not amount to anything after sunrise until the last half hour.   Side roads and driveway covered again!  About .25 inch and 30 degrees.

Just now, H2O said:

I see not much on radar to the SW u til you get the ULL. Coastal would need to start throwing precipitation more N for it to have taken over 

Agree completely.  Ending in SW.  for example, moving NE of ChArlottsville.  Al

About 6 inches here and I have shoveled.  About over here.  Looking at the radar I will be pleasantly surprised if it has not stopped snowing west of 95 by noon.

33/still flurries but every flake sticking to deck

34/flurries

Thanks.

Bob, Do you or any anyone else know if there have ever been any studies that show that one perturbed member of GEFS has been more reliable than another?  Or am I not understanding how the ensembles work?

First post.  I enjoy reading, but believe I have seen everyone get too emotional from time to time.  As a native Marylander for 51 years, I would tell everyone to appreciate the snow we do get....we have gone through too many winters when there is nothing to track.  From my hobbyist eye, at least we are in the game over the next month or so.  (Referencing EURO weeklies, the AO, NAO, EPO, etc. for anyone wondering where I am coming from) so enjoy the ride.  I plan to really enjoy my 2-4 inches tomorrow (yes, I know wrong thread.)  Will make about 9 for Brunswick so far this year.  PEACE.