Weather Will

Snow flurries in Brunswick, 28

WB 0Z EPS.  

WB 18Z EPS v 0Z GEFS.  Let’s see how the OZ compares...

Just now, Ji said:

This is a completely different event. We all expected storm 1 to verify south At some point

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Then you are much smarter than I because what I have seen in general is a lot of volatility in the models in this pattern.

Let’s see how 0Z EPS trends before declaring the run a dud.

EURO is not locking into a solution 5 days out.  For illustrative purposes, look at Monday’s event OZ today compared to last night  It is struggling like the other models even at 2 days out.

Just now, SnowDreamer said:

North tick, slightly more QPF up close to DC. I’ll take the progress. Still a long way to go. 

I agree.  WB EURO 0Z today compared to yesterday OZ

WB OZ Euro, GFS Can 7am Th

WB 0Z NAM a true wintry mix for N and W suburbs Mon afternoon and overnight.

WB low locations 18Z v. 12Z...trend continues it will be going up the mountains by Th....

EPS Mean at 18Z is NW of 12Z

WB 18Z GFS

WB 12z EURO v 0Z, better but not good enough 

WB 12Z GEFS 6 inch probability at 7 days...

Not getting my hopes up on one deterministic run, but add in the 6Z GEFS so I am watching.   

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

I don’t want to speak for everyone else but my spirit is somewhat broken. Call me when it’s 6 hours out

WB 6Z GFS has big hits for our late week storm.  Definitely an uptick!

WB 12Z EPS thru Day 15.   Well if you don’t get 3 inches or more by February 5....

12Z EPS thru Day 5  Basically, the same as 6Z, a tick North at southern edge.

Nice uptick in probs for early next week storm...good to see!  Hopefully it holds today and improves.  WB 6Z EPS, 6Z GEFS and 0Z Can.

WB 18Z EPS continues to cave toward GEFS in early next week storm.  

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Weather Will made us suffer through 800 probability maps like that and doesn’t post this one??????

Preoccupied today... thanks!

WB 18Z GEFS says see you in February...

EPS still has the storm...wobbles in the track will determine who gets slop and who gets a nice snowfall.  

No, but the temps are above freezing upstairs at hour 144 

WB 6Z EPS 3 inch probability maps increased from 0Z but the 6 inch prob maps decreased.