Weather Will

Bob is right....we are in the game for one more....just keep one eye on it until later this week....again easier said then done.  I have moved from Greenbelt, to Bowie, to Ellicott City, and now to Brunswick.  I moved for the family, not because of snow, but getting more snow is one of the fringe benefits of a long commute.

50 minutes ago, Snowchaser said:

No word from DT yet haha

12z ICON appears to have shifted the rain/snow line south in line with the NAM for what it is worth.  An inch or two is an inch or two.....take what we can get on the first day of meteorological spring!

Overnight EPS looked good to me through Day 9.  4-5 inch mean across DC, all of MD.  Control over a foot.  Close to half of the members give us three or more inches.  About 10 big hitters....keep in mind this is potentially from Friday, Monday, and the midweek big daddy.

The operational runs have been horrible...outside about three-four days all winter. IMHO. 

I do understand the frustration, when you take an hour and a half train ride each way to work, you really note the sunrise/sunset times.  First time I have noticed a hint of sunrise as I get on the train at 6am, and still a little sun as I approach home at 630.   Spring is around the corner...but my gut says we are not quite done yet!  Perhaps I am just an eternal optimist.

1 minute ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

The ICON and Canadian went a little north and/or warmer 

I stand corrected on the Icon, I looked only at both GFS and The Nam. Should have been more specific 

With several hundred mile swings on both GFS for Friday, I would chill out for Monday and Wed....details to be determined....at least there are storms to track.  It is not going to be mild the next week or so....chins  up people come on!!!

Well looking at Friday, all of the 18z models appear to be trending colder, further south.  1-3 inches is nothing to scoff at on March 1.  There would be some years that we would be yearning for it!!!

1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

March 2014 for sure. 3/3/14, 3/16-17/14, and 3/25/14

Thanks...I am not remembering that!  Let's see if it will happen again!

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I don't know exactly how many other times but in 1960 BWI recorded 10.5" March 2-4th, 5.9" March 9-10th, and 5.1" on March 16th.  

Thanks!  I can't remember it in my lifetime.

Have we ever had three accumulating storms (low bar--inch or more) in

March?

EPS through Day 9 shows a mean throughout the DMV of 4-5 inches.  There are about 20 individual Members that give us 6 plus inches.  Caveat:  This includes the three possible storms : Friday, Monday and Wed.   Definitely interesting weather the next 9 days to watch!

One of my favorite memories of March was 93.  We had several inches of snow with the thickest layer of sleet on top that I had ever seen.  I was in my my 20s skating around the backyard in the late afternoon.  It had been very mild 60 or 70 the day before.  It can stick in March or anytime of year if it is coming down hard enough.

WP has a good article on snowfall this year so far.  No one from DC, South or West should objectively be complaining.  We are at climo or better.  It would be great to get one more before it’s over....It is nice to gave something to watch inside 2 weeks at the 3rd week of February.  Everyone should realize that what makes it so fun to track in the Middle Atlantic is that we are almost always on the edge: rain vs snow/ light vs heavy rates etc.  step back and stay at 30,000 feet until the middle of next week....then start tearing apart each operational run....I know much easier said then done.

My nonexpert look at 12zEPS based on the mean of low locations shows coastal possibilities for the 2nd and the 5th.  5th actually looks better to me.  I am going to get some sleep this weekend!  Again at least we have a seat in the ball park for the 2nd-5th period.....

Widespread precip signal again....Big storms, historic storms give a signal on the operational models 5 plus days out.  So let’s see if it is still there in some fashion over the next week....details to be determined next weekend.  So what if we are are at day 11 or so.....at least there is a chance at a big ending that is not purely weenie wishcasting.

It is fun tracking snow into early March.....we will see what happens!!!

Mean is much lower.  Only about 12 members give the same output or more.  A start in the right direction....

EPS Control is a hit for the March 4-6 period.  Not epic but 6 inches south of DC, over a foot north and west.

Snowing in Brunswick.  Light dusting everywhere.  30.

OPM has a new policy.  Federal employees no longer get snow days or weather and safety leave as it is now called.  We must either take personal leave or telework.  

MARC Brunswick line canceled.  Penn and Camden on holiday schedule.  Guess the state of MD thinks it will be pretty bad tomorrow 

Surface temps transition above freeze no between 18z and 6 z everywhere.  I am not skilled enough to say whether there is much frozen during this time frame except in Nortgern MD

Lot of rain until 18z Th.  Looks like  1.5 inches total for storm.  About a third frozen.