Weather Will

Perhaps an expert can  explain it, but it appears the horrible severe weather in the south is robbing us of the ripping rates necessary for any kind of a winter storm here....

In last 15 minutes, everything but streets now have light dusting, 36, Brunswick 

Light snow, 37. Finally tiny pellets of ice on mulch. Brunswick

Light white rain falling, not sticking to anything, 38, Brunswick

Flurries, 39, Brunswick 

It is going to take ripping rates between the toasty temps and solar radiation to be any kind of road issues.  It should be pretty though...not picky in March! 

Flurries in Brunswick.

3k NAM 12z.  It very accurately predicted last nights no show snow.   I would hug it and hope 

3k looks a tick South, but still looks to be 6-10 inch event for NW VA, Frederick, northern Montgomery, Western Howard, Carroll, North Balt County NE,  does not look like the cities get much...

Looks like snow from 10am until about 1 am Mon. in 3k.  Mostly snow Frederick, extreme northern Mont., western Howard, north and northeastward.

I meant weather man expert..

Could a man expert chime in here?  12k looks sheared or has a double center going on after ;8 hours.  Precip shield looks weird or am I just tired?

33/ Rain, sleet, and flurries 

Snow accumulation at 8ET Sunday (Mostly from Sunday storm as 3k does not give much tonight.)

About 2-3 hours of rain the snow line begins to shift east on 3K through Frederick/Carroll County into extreme NVA.

Why are the snow depth maps further SE on the 12K at 18z compared to 12Z?   More sleet?

NAM 3K Snow map which includes tonight through 7ET.  (12z run)

No, it is the 850 line.  Wintry precip should be falling NW of that line 7pm Sunday (form will vary depending if all levels are 0 celsius or lower.)

Just now, BristowWx said:

That 0 is western PWC is over my house.  I assume this is an expected snowfall map? 

I do feel the pain of those 30-50 miles to the East on this one.  (It is not a given that anyone east of the Appalachians and south of the MD line is getting anything yet.)  I spent my first 30 years living east of the Capital Beltway. A slight shift SE is still possible with this one for various reason already posted.  I have one stupid question.  Do the models take into account forecasted snow fall when predicting air temperatures?  What I'm asking is whether the 2 inches tonight in the Northern tier could factor into surface temperatures Saturday and Sunday.

Frederick County, MD also has a Winter Storm Watch 7pm Sunday-7:00am Monday.

If the King moves the Rain/Snow line toward I-95, I will happily take the 12z runs....

Northern Frederick, Carroll due ok this run as well.  We need another 30-50 mile shift.  

ICON has been consistent with itself, but so have the other models.  Let's see if the GFS twins are as stubborn with their Northern tracks.

18Z NAM is horrible verbatim for everyone in our forum but being the optimist there is a silver lining.  There are two lows.  One right about where we would want it that travels along the NV/VA line and another further North that travels through northern WV and off the coast.  Looks weird but if the southern low track were to verify without the northern low, we would be in business.  (I know it is the NAM at 84 hours.)