Weather Will

WB 0Z EPS control 

WB 0Z EPS nice improvements for early next week!  Supports the operational...

Well maybe the GFS will cave at 1030 so everyone won’t be panicking for the 130 EURO... good thing I’m off tomorrow.

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Now hang on. The storm that we are all talking about is the storm for Tuesday. Let’s keep the debate fair.

I thought how the models handle the first wave will effect the track/strength of the second wave. I am enjoying the discourse.  Thanks.

WB GFS, what I said was that the GFS has been consistently showing freezing rain for Monday and all over the place for the next Tues. Wed. Wave.

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Right there is your problem. You only look at snow maps. Post the precip maps

Can.  Last four maps total precipitation 

Ok, just maps.  No comments.  Last 4 runs of Canadian:

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

You know, it could end up correct, but I won’t lose a minute of time worrying about the gfs. Look at its last 4 runs at h5. It literally throws out every possible scenario. Hard to put faith in that.

Agreed that the GFS is all over the place, but it has been pretty consistent showing freezing rain for Monday.  My point is that without strong EPS support the EURO should not be taken as a given.  I have fallen for it too many times the last few years.  Let’s see if the EURO and Canadian show the same result for a few runs in a row first.

I hope the 0Z runs improve but EPS has not gone above 30% for next week since 0Z.  It does not strongly support its deterministic model.  There has been one good EURO and Canadian determinative runs and one good EPS control run.   No GFS or GEFS support.  We have seen several head fakes from the EURO this year...but hope springs eternal...

I guess we will know if the GFS or EURO/Canadian are wrong soon enough.  
 

WB 18z GEFS thru Day 9... laughing hysterically at the snow hole over my neck of the woods...couldn’t draw it better if I tried....

WB 18Z GEFS thru Day 7 is a disaster...

WB 12Z EURO control looks like the deterministic....good news!

WB 12Z EPS, don’t get too excited yet...

1 minute ago, jaydreb said:

Looks like a pretty significant shift south in precip on 12z EPS as compared to 0z.  

Mean on WB 12Z EPS is pretty dry for DMV.

Let’s see what the EPS support says before everyone gets too excited...remember what EURO showed at 0Z.  No trend yet.

WB EURO Day 7...ok so where does the next picture go??? Since it is after Day7

12Z GEFS only has one hit through Day 7.

WB 12Z GFS thru Day 7

Just now, CAPE said:

lol

Yeah i think we all know this, well, other than Ji.

Yah, doing an experiment with the GEFS... will keep looking at it subtracting 6 hours for each run through the weekend.   We will see how it looks as we progress...

Friendly reminder should be watching the ensembles outside a week....everyone in here knows this, it keeps you from getting whiplash or false hopes...

WB 18Z GEFS is a slight improvement run thru 9.75 days.

WB EPS thru Day 10....hopefully will continue to improve as we go through the week and inside 10 days.  Lot better than GEFS...

WB 12Z EURO...rather it do this then rain but models are still over the place...

WB GEFS thru Day 10 days says we keep waiting....

EURO MJO from NWS site