Weather Will

We are going to get warm weeks every winter.  Let’s keep avoiding warm months and we will get some snow.  Most long range forecasts that i have read were calling for a colder second half.  Keep the stormy pattern and snow will come.

.5 or so on the grass and car.  Sidewalk and street just wet now.  I am hovering near freezing.

Streets and sidewalks caving.  Temperature 32.

Snow has picked up.  First car and mulch topper of the season!  

Very Light Snow in Brunswick.  I can see it looking at the street light but visibility is fine

I get up at 430 to go to work so i will report again in am...good luck everyone!

38 and light rain/ice pellets.

41 and some ice pellets in Brunswick

Yup.  Take 1-2 inches NW of town, with White Rain inside the Beltways, near 95 and SE.  That is the upside potential of this event (not a storm).

Completely different from last year when we went weeks without tracking anything. Not a torchy December yet at Day 10.  And we are tracking another storm in week 3 (GEFS still has hopes of frozen next week).

I am analyzing the appetizer/teaser storm a little differently.  First and foremost, the cold air is returning to the lower Ohio valley/ Western West Virginia.  Let’s see how long it actually takes for our temperatures to fall toward freezing and then look at the radar and see where the narrow band if moisture is/or isn’t.  This is not a big low.  It is really like a line if showers going through with cold temps.  If you view it this way you won’t be disappointed when you wake up tomorrow am.

Seems to be support on the Euro ensembles for another storm Tues./Wed.  WB 

Euro Weather Bell within 7 days...next Tuesday....frozen thump?

Conservative usually wins.  We shall see.  RGEM and GFS,  EURO in the middle, then the NAM.  December snow is bonus snow or the appetizer.  Main course still to come... just don’t know yet whether it is prime rib or a peanut butter jelly sandwich.

Washington Post Capital Weather Gang forecast.

Red Flag;  let’s see how the rest of 18z suite goes before throwing in the towel.

What about surface temps for today and tomorrow?  Seem to be lower today than expected and forecasted a notch below for tomorrow as well?  Can!t hurt if that is the case.

There are no models bringing anything but white rain inside the Beltways and/or 95 east.  RGEM and GFS seem more bullish than EURO and NAM for NW areas.  Fun to track.  Not a big event for anyone but if NW areas see 2 inches on the grass would take it in a minute.   I have to make up for the first 50 years of my life in the DMV when I was always in the white rain zone!

20 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Snow depth maps are usually a more accurate depiction and I say this seriously. Not always, but usually. Many would take this and enjoy the Hallmark scene and cardinals flying around look.

I would take it in a minute!

6z GFS. Kuchera WB.  My take as of now is that since day before will be in the 60s and sUrface temps Wed morning just around freezing NW of DC,  BA, this will be white rain inside the Beltways, and a grass coverer if we are lucky NW.

There seems to be an interesting dynamic going on in the form this year or tension since so many have called for s torch in December and that may or may not verify.  To be fair, I have not heard or seen anyone calling for a snowy December so expectations should be very low.  Would take the 18Z EURO in a heartbeat.

Average snowfall at DCA is only about an inch.  Before Thanksgiving everyone was talking about the torchy December.  I think most people would not bet the ranch on under an Inch today. 

Clown map Kuchera 6zGFS WB through next weekend.  Would be great if we reach the total snowfall most long range forecasters are predicting for DC by mid December.  I love the pattern.  If not this one,  I think it will be fun this winter.  Lots of potential.  We just need a little luck which no model or forecaster knows how to calculate.  That is one reason why this hobby is so fun.

15 day EPS snow mean is 2 inches from NW DC line Northward.  About 20 percent of the individual members look good as well with a couple happy hour homeruns thrown in.....lets see if this is a trend starter or a head fake but best look I have seen this year.

May the force be with us!