Weather Will

Sterling NWS did a nice write up on the late weekend Not much change in the 12z guidance in regards to the storm that will impact the region late Sunday night into Monday morning. A potent shortage will eject out of the southwestern US into the southern Plains saturday night into Sunday morning, inducing cyclogenesis over Texas Sunday morning. Additionally, a shortwave rotating around a Canadian upper low will swing a trough out of Canada through the Great Lakes at roughly the same time. These two systems look to phase and bring the surface low up the east coast, however the exact track of this low is still a bit uncertain, though guidance seems to be coming to some sort of a consensus. Guidance has been trending slightly north over the past several runs it seems. The 12z GFS and Canadian deterministic runs seems to continue that trend, albeit slightly. Both are still slightly farther south compared to the 00z European run. So, what this means is that much of the area, especially along I-95 and southeast, will see a plain cold rain. However, north and west of I-95 is still a bit uncertain. Depending on where the low tracks, these areas could see some snow, or some rain/snow mix type of scenario. The 12z run of the GEFS ensembles lights up eastern WV and western/north-central MD with snow, so that seems to be the focus for wintry precipitation at this time. Given the lack of a blocking surface high to the north to funnel in cold air at the surface, would think this will be a rain or snow event primarily, and predicting exactly where that line sets up several days out is just not going to be accurate. So, have kept a fairly large area of rain/snow mix north and west of I-95, with all snow in the farthest northwest portions of the CWA. So, though some things are becoming more clear, there are still many question marks when it comes to northern VA, eastern WV and western/central MD. If there is enough moisture left on the back edge of the system, when cold air wraps back around, could see some snow across the entire area, but likely wouldn`t amount to much.

Very confusing reading this thread.  Seems like we may now may have the potential for two small bursts of snow.  A Friday am snow burst from 2-5am and perhaps another snow burst Saturday early am.  If you happen to be under both bursts, and temps cooperate. you may end up with 4 or so inches.  Then again, you may end up with fizzle or a dusting.  GOOD LUCK!

8 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

Just a weaker less amped storm I suppose? Faster northern stream push...

Thanks.

Just now, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

This one is a classic track and storm that develops for someone in the Mid ATL to get 4-8”. Its how most of our area gets 4-8” snow storms. It just depends on track. As PSU I think said, If it’s along VA/NC border, we all cash in on 4-8” if it’s southern Chesapeake then it’s a north and west forum snow. If it tracks over us then snow is up in Central PA. It’s literally all about the track, it’s clear cut. No cold air damning to look at or other crap

Are the models already completely accounting for the low blowing up off of the coast on Saturday in terms of where the next low will track?  I guess what I am asking is what factors can shift the low to track another 50 miles south from West to east (arctic high pressing more, slightly stronger Sat coastal low?)

I posted in the wrong thread.  Agree there are slight improvements.  My nonexpert comparison of 0z v. 12z EURO using 6z Monday as a reference point.  Slight improvements.  The low is centered over PAX River rather than SE PA.  There is a heavier snow band across NW MD-thru North Central MD.   If there is another 30-50 mile shift SE over the next day there will be a lot of happy people.

My nonexpert comparison of 0z v. 12z EURO using 6z Monday as a reference point.  Slight improvements.  The low is centered over PAX River rather than SE PA.  There is a heavier snow band across NW MD-thru North Central MD.   If there is another 30-50 mile shift SE over the next day there will be a lot of happy people.

Looks like about .2-.3 inch of liquid in Northern areas.  Only about .1 around DC.  There is also a JI slot, I mean dry slot in NW VA....:)

Winter Weather Advisory area wide from 10pm-10am.  1-3 in DC- nearby suburbs; 2-4 north.

Agree NAM looks good!  Hopefully the 2 inch appetizer before the main course Sunday night....but that is for another thread.

Inside 5 days: check; decent amount of moisture: check; exact track: no consistency yet.  Stay tuned!!!  Seems like no one should start really getting excited before 0z Saturday operational runs.  It will avoid a lot of emotional ups and downs over the next two days.  Remember the models have been awful outside 48 hours.

3K noticeable shift North in accumulations.  Nothing for DC South.  Only snows from about 3-7.am.  (Rain changing to snow 1-3 am.)  2 inches within 30 miles or so either side of 70 from WV line to North of Baltimore.

12k is slightly warmer DC South.  Banding appears more NW of DC this run.  .3 to .4 total precip. rather than up to .7.

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

Ive actually never read JB outside of winter months. Does he do the same thing in the summer time...bring up every historical hurriacane analog?

Yes.

Setting aside my Weather Bible for the moment, EPS low locations don't look bad for Sunday/Monday.  Biggest clusters between NGA and WTN. Sunday.  By Monday early am there is a large cluster near SE VA and another further out to sea.  On the other hand, only a few members showing a snowy hit NW of DC.

I watched JB's video on WB today.  he talks about warmer Atlantic waters and that the low should hug the coast.  He does seem to be giving up on 95 corridor.

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What page of the weenie handbook did you get that from?

Bill Chapter 3, Verse 4.

No one but God knows what is going to happen.  Thinking about it, if the models were reliable, this wouldn't be much of a hobby.  You could just say look at the EURO, etc.  So go old school and create your own map for Monday.  It is just as good as any of these computer generated models.

We forget that normal highs are approaching 50 degrees my weather friends....we are still in the game.

Not wish casting but definitely still in the game:  fact very cold air pressing in from the West on Sunday/Monday.  If the timing of the low slows down 6-12 hours or if the cold air presses more than currently modeled we are going to see wintry precip. in the area.  Fun to have things to track in late February/early March!  Wasn't it yesterday that everything was being suppressed?  Now we just need a 50-100 shift in 4 days? 

We can hope the EURO is wrong again with this one!  Let's see what it says 12z Friday.  Outside of 48 hours none of the models know what is going on in this fast flow pattern.

EURO caving to the NAM...I'll be damned....and so will a lot of EURO hugging forecasters.  EURO ain't what it used to be. 

Weatherbell 3KNAM shows snow moving in between 11-midnight.  Over between 4-5am.  850s south of DC during the entire event but heaviest band of snow through NVA and North Central MD.  3-5 inches verbatim.  I would take it in a minute if it verifies.  It has been really consistent---right or wrong.

Just now, Weather Will said:

Not all of this is snow DC south.

 

 

 

Sorry I thought you could post non EURO maps from Weather Bell, but it appears not on second read.

Not all of this is snow DC south.

Agree that Friday and midweek have a least temporarily gone poof.  Still seems to be a signal for a light to moderate event for Monday.  My nonexpert eye would say about 20-25% of the members show 4 or more inches from DC N and W.