Weather Will

Shocker that the snow chances have evaporated with the most recent runs but western suburbs freezing or below on GFS GDPS, and 12K NAM mid to late week. Drained my hose bibs today…

Difference at 6 days between 12Z EPS and 12Z GEFS at 6 days pretty amazing….

WB 0Z EURO control, I will take it….

WB 6Z GFS

WB EURO Weeklies

WB 18Z GEFS, interesting weak signal for something inside 10 days.

WB Euro Weeklies, Dreaming of a White Christmas …

WB 12Z GFS Storm 1 early week and storm 2 late week.

WB 18Z GFS…..our winter future Yes, I am in the snow hole….

WB 12Z GEFS. Looks like a much needed wet week ahead.

Come on, it means as much as any other guidance this far out, which is not much!!!

WB Euro Weekly Control: suppressed

WB EURO weeklies

WB EURO seasonal from last night for late Nov. Not bad to my non expert eye…

WB 18Z GFS Not snow, but also showing a deep trough over the East last few days of October, like last Night Euro control run.

Was a beautiful sunrise, but overcast again…..

I will take early season snow rather than stress over whether peak climo will deliver mid January to mid February. But I understand the point that historically if we get an early season snow it usually means the rest of the winter is a dud. I can remember a foot of snow Veterans Day 1987 inside the Beltway. I will never forget my early dismissal from UMCP. My 20 minute drive took me over 4 hours and cars were abandoned all along my trip home. Huge thump of snow with thunder in about 4 hours. I don’t think we got much else that year. That is when I officially start tracking because it can happen!!!

WB 0Z EURO control was out of control with overnight run…

If there is a glimmer of hope, snow pack is building over the next month in Canada….cold air source perhaps for December…

This looks like it will be more accurate….

Light drizzle, 70

ok….so are there any known correlations between cold Antarctic winters and the upcoming winter for the Northern Hemisphere??? CNN)In a year of extreme heat, Antarctica's last six months were the coldest on record. "For the polar darkness period, from April through September, the average temperature was -60.9 degrees Celsius (-77.6 degrees Fahrenheit), a record for those months," the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) said. The last six months is also the darkest period at the South Pole, which is where the name polar darkness (also called polar night) comes from. Here, the sun sets for the last time around the spring equinox, and does not rise again until near the autumn equinox six months later. For the entire Antarctic continent, the winter of 2021 was the second-coldest on record, with the "temperature for June, July, and August 3.4 degrees Celsius (6.1 degrees Fahrenheit) lower than the 1981 to 2010 average at -62.9 degrees Celsius (-81.2 degrees Fahrenheit)," according to a new report from the NSIDC. "This is the second-coldest winter (June-July-August months) on record, behind only 2004 in the 60-year weather record at Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station," the NSIDC said.

WB 3K NAM. Not a flooding rain, but dreary Sunday appears to be on tap area wide; heavier rain along the coast.

WB 12Z…Euro shifted east with heaviest rain, but it and Can. still nothing like GFS for the weekend.

WB 12Z through the weekend on the major models…GFS is still the driest. I think tracking this winter is going to be very frustrating. I guess I won’t get my expectations up for snowstorms outside three days unless at least three global models are in agreement.