Weather Will

WB 6Z EURO.

WB 6Z GFS: west of Bay minimal rain.

WB 18Z EURO

WB 18Z HMON still a hit DC eastward.

Whichever model shows the least weather around here is usually correct….although other than needed rains for my lawn, you can keep the winds, tornadoes, and flooding out to sea. WB 18Z 3K NAM did shift east from 12Z.

No, just a smidge east.

Worst winds east of Bay hopefully eastern shore folks are preparing….

5am Fri. Surface; total precip

2am Fri.

11pm

5pm

WB Euro at 2pm Th

HMON jogged east at 12Z compared to 6Z. Another 30 mile jog and it is east of the Bay with the precip shield. Glad this is not a snowstorm….

WB 6Z EURO

WB 12Z EURO.

WB 12Z GFS shifted Elsa rains NW to just SE of DC for TH.

WB 6Z EURO caved to GFS track, while no effect on DMV outcome worth noting GFS did a better job with the track as we watch for later storms.

Overnight runs greatly diminish any tropical storm threat to Mid Atlantic. WB 0Z EURO and 6Z GFS.

WB 18Z GFS late afternoon Tuesday has Elsa on west coast of Florida; EURO on east side…..NHC is hugging GFS in its official track at this point.

Sterling NWS discussion on Elsa from early Sunday am: Guidance is in overall good agreement in regards to the breakdown of the H5 ridge over the middle and later portion of next week as a strong 594dm ring of fire develops over the Southwestern US. However there is a good amount of spread amongst members in regards to the finer details, especially what, if any impacts we see from Elsa. The GFS has been hinting that the remnants of Elsa track up the Appalachians Wednesday into Thursday as a Bermuda high, associated with the aforementioned H5 ridging persists closer to the east coast. If this verifies correctly, could see potential flooding impacts across the CWA. On the other hand, the ECMWF and GEM track Elsa just to our south and east. What`s interesting is the fact that the EC/GEPS/GEFS are more in agreement that the upper level trough is more progressive and the Bermuda High is shifted further east. This would allow Elsa to track more out to sea. Furthermore, the trend in the NAO shows a peak just shy under 1 STD which doesn`t indicate a strong Bermuda high, especially closer to the coast, and will likely have some wiggle room to shift more eastward. This all hints at a solution that allows Elsa`s track to not affect the CWA.

WB 0Z EURO TS Probs.

WB OZ EURO TD probs and GFS 6Z.

Think your right. The 6zNAM which had little rain ended up correct.

WB 12Z NAM is wetter through today compared to 6Z.

Nice thunderstorms in Brunswick, MD about .5. After forecasted rains tomorrow looks like my lawn will be green at least through mid July. Looking at end of next week, global models in general agreement that east coast needs to be watched for tropical weather, WB 12Z EURO tropical probs.