Weather Will
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Everything posted by Weather Will
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WB 18Z GEFS looks better than 12Z. Not giving up on the day 7/8 threat yet.
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WB 12Z EURO…week for improvement….
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GEFS and GEPS still show a chance for President’s Day weekend timeframe…not much going on before then looking at their ensembles. No point staying up late this week looking at model runs; And on the bright side get to keep my birthday dinner reservation this week!!!
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Looking at the 0Z EPS there are a few members showing a storm for the 14th and again around the 19th. Hopefully one of these periods will trend favorably over the upcoming week.
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Agreed that deterministic runs can’t be relied on at Day 8 for exact details but this run basically takes the storm off the map….by replacing the western ridge/ Eastern trough with a pacific zonal flow.
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WB GFS comparison to 18Z says it all….
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I don’t think this will be a good run. Western ridge not as strong and eastern trough more progressive. Some one tell me I’m wrong…
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While we wait for the 0Z GFS, the MJO looks to be in a favorable phase 2 to 3 for the next 2 weeks before going into warm phase 4.
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Looking at the latest GEFS extended looks like we have until President’s Day weekend and then the trough shifts to the West coast. If early the following week does not work according to the Ops, GEFS does show another chance Presidents Day weekend before the pattern shift.
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12Z EPS isn’t biting yet…
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12Z EPS has the broad trough in the east but is not showing the big storm. (control has it to our S.)
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We will see if the EPS supports…it would be nice to have a storm to track in prime snow climo period period for everyone. Give me a foot of snow and then let spring arrive on time in March.
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WB 12Z EURO….old King wants its throne back!
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WB 12Z GEFS….still gives hope that there will be something to track by the end of the week…
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WB 12Z GFS next window of opportunity, verbatim a rain storm off the coast but we have a week to watch it.
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WB 0Z GEFS and CMC says watch 10-15 day period. Hopefully something to track by the end of this upcoming work week.
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We are due something trending in the right direction inside 4 days….
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WB 18Z EURO
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WB 12Z GEFS showing some life after the end of next business week.
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That may be true, I definitely don’t chart it out. Just hope the Valentines Day period pans out. Don’t want to rely on late February/ March.
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GEFS extended has actually done a pretty good job with the temps. I think the red flags for me are that looking at the teleconnections the PNA anomalies are increasing toward the end of February and the MJO is forecast to go into Warm Phase 4.
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12Z WB 3K NAM
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WB ensembles signal next weekend period is one to watch. Couple big hits on EPS.
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Latest GEFS extended seems to lose the cold anomalies after the 3rd week of February. JB says winter looking over in 3-4 weeks as MJO goes to Phase 4. Hopefully we get some snow by President’s Day weekend.
