GEFS extended has actually done a pretty good job with the temps. I think the red flags for me are that looking at the teleconnections the PNA anomalies are increasing toward the end of February and the MJO is forecast to go into Warm Phase 4.
Latest GEFS extended seems to lose the cold anomalies after the 3rd week of February. JB says winter looking over in 3-4 weeks as MJO goes to Phase 4. Hopefully we get some snow by President’s Day weekend.
12Z WB 3K NAM. Stick a fork in the ice event! (Good thing!). Now we can hit the reset button and hopefully have something to track for the second half of February by the end of next week.