Weather Will

Bad fog on my way to the train station in Brunswick. Little surprised no fog advisory in effect.

WB 0Z… ingredient #1 for snow moving into place the 17th-21st on all 3 global ensembles.

WB GEFS Sunday the 18th compared to 4 runs ago, my point the models still are not showing any clear trend yet…

WB GEFS for Friday 16th 4 runs ago compared to 18z… Christmas Miracle still possible.

Not according to WB 6Z GEFS…

WB OZ PNA teleconnection EPS and GEFS. We will know by the end of next weekend if the EPS can deliver…

Two weeks ago some modeling indicated this week we would see colder/stormier pattern. In fairness, the consensus seemed to be that was too aggressive and mid month looked more reasonable. If we get a colder stormier pattern before Christmas that is pretty close…

I agree with the can being kicked down the road, but both GEFS and EPS seem to be in sync this time around for the improvements by the weekend of the 17th, let’s see if it holds…

As we wait for a discreet threat to give us a White Christmas, it is looking increasingly likely that at least the holiday period will bring colder temperatures, which is ingredient number 1 for any snow storm potential….WB CFS and GFS extended centered on the anomalies around the 25th.

WB 18Z GFS just the Day 12 storm…

See it starting to go neutral to positive on Day 11 on WB 12Z EPS.

So we have been watching and monitoring for months and as we get under three weeks before Christmas, we are still in the game for a wintry holiday, can’t ask for more than that in the Mid-Atlantic.

WB 12z GEFS gets the PNA neutral the week before Christmas….finally.

WB GFS, EURO, and Can. have a threat to watch 9-10 days out.

WB 12Z GEFS, first 7 days and last seven.

Ok, 3 weeks to Christmas. White Christmas statistics say we have under a 10% chance. WB 0Z EPS…( most of the prob. At the end of its run. 3 and 1 inch maps.) I will post prob. maps only periodically since I know it irritates some…

WB 0Z GEFS and EPS both show a period to watch around the 18th-19th.

WB 0Z GFS is improvement…

WB GEFS extended and Control

Little off topic, but as a DC native, who had to rely on the tv mets before there was internet, I would go with Shutt’s forecast over Kammerer’s any day of the week.

WB latest extended GEFS 7 day period before Christmas. Would note the cool down can be seen starting around the 16th. So there is still hope. I understand the pessimism, but White Christmas is rare around here: ### the Channel 4 forecast, I will go with Channel 9: Overall, white Christmases are rare in the region. According to the official definition of "white Christmas" from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), a Christmas can only be considered white if there is one inch of snow on the ground by 7 a.m. on Dec. 25. Looking at data going back to 1884, snow has only fallen on Christmas Day in D.C. nine times. That means there is only a 7% chance of a white Christmas in D.C. in 2022. There have been 19 occasions when snow was on the ground in D.C. for Christmas since 1888. In 1962, D.C. saw the most snowfall on Dec. 25 with 5.4 inches. Our WUSA9 Weather Watch team predicts the first measurable snowfall in the DMV will be Dec. 18.

What am I missing here, we need the PNA to cooperate by not being at minus 2-4 deviation when we have a strong -AO and -NAO. We are going below freezing tonight and tomorrow night with a - 1 to -2 PNA. The EPS goes strongly negative with the PNA this week and then is forecasted to head back toward neutral for a sustained period of time within the next two weeks. Let’s see if that timeframe holds.

WB 12Z EPS teleconnection forecasts. IF CORRECT, the PNA heads toward neutral by the week before Christmas and the NAO, EPO, and AO look good during the same timeframe….let’s see if the PNA starts heading toward neutral by the end of the upcoming work week. Maybe we are going to get a Christmas miracle.

WB 6Z torch v 12z cold-slight differences ;). It is clear that you have to take the global models with 7 grains of salt in this pattern at the end of their ranges.

We will know in a couple weeks if the GFS is the model that has the best handle on this pattern. If there is no cold air by the 15-20th timeframe it becomes Torch King or December Destroyer….