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Weather Will

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Everything posted by Weather Will

  1. Tick east with the heavy snow….this is a win for me if I get heavy snow for a few hours…this may not get resolved until we are outcasting on Sunday…
  2. WB 12Z NAM at 84. I take it as a positive that it looks more intense. Will not speculate on track…
  3. The WB 6Z EPS ticked NW this run. I think we are honing in on higher elevation event, but whether the NW burbs get any substantial snow is still unclear. Quick count 11 of 50 members bring snow to NW zones east of mountains.
  4. The GFS in range has done a good job with precipitation types/ thermal profiles this winter.
  5. Compare the 500mB, further south this run, less dynamic cooling, no snow, try again Tom!
  6. Unless we get a perfect deepening low track, just no cold air to make it happen.
  7. WB latest GEFS extended uptick in snow mean for our next threat period 7 day period ending the 24th. (Yesterday compared to today).
  8. Individual members….follow the percentage axis as you would expect.
  9. Good thing I said I would not pay attention to the ensembles anymore for the weekend storm. GEFS ticked south and east…and not as intense. We are still a couple days out from the final solution but best GFS happy hour run in a long time…
  10. Got to smell the rain to get the best snow…. With our luck this winter, there will be heavy snow in Pittsburgh on Sunday and 70 here with thunderstorms but we need a bombshell low with marginal temperatures…. Livin on the edge!!!!
  11. At this point, I am watching the Global models. The ensembles carry less weight as we move under five days. At least we have something to track other than 300 hour 500 MB maps, and speculative stratwarm and MJO effects in three weeks.
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