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cptcatz

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Everything posted by cptcatz

  1. cptcatz
    Looks like it's bottoming out with this latest pass. Pressure still around 910 and FL wind still at 156 kt.
  2. cptcatz
    If an ERC happens soon, it could mean much worse impacts over bigger areas. Right now the storm is really small. If it turned north right now, eastern Jamaica wouldn't even get hurricane force winds and surge would be minimal outside of the small core.
  3. cptcatz
    Recon first pass: 155 kt FL winds, pressure 912, incredible dropsonde
  4. cptcatz
    Except 11 hours late. It was not a 140 mph storm when they said it was at 5am. It strengthened into a 140 mph storm throughout the day.
  5. cptcatz
    Looks like the plane is going home. Anyone know when the next flight is scheduled?
  6. cptcatz
    I'm no expert on the socioeconomics of Jamaica but I would guess the tourist areas would fare better than the higher poverty areas of Kingston. Kingston getting the worse of it would likely cause a humanitarian crisis.
  7. cptcatz
    Second pass: slightly higher winds in the NE eyewall but no change in pressure and no support of 140 mph winds.
  8. cptcatz
    Also interesting to note is this is a pretty small storm right now. Impressive winds barely reach past the eyewall.
  9. cptcatz
    Interesting dropsonde though. Really impressive winds higher up but not reaching down to the surface.
  10. cptcatz
    First pass of the morning shows it weaker than NHC estimated. Is it topping out?
  11. cptcatz
    Good for surge, catastrophic for rain and subsequent mudslides. Think about 30+ inches of rain that is not going to get absorbed by the ground but just flow down the mountainsides down into the coastal plain areas. All those green areas are going to be flooded.
  12. cptcatz
    It's pretty amazing how bad the short term forecast was for the GFS. For days on end, it's two day forecast was hundreds of miles off. Hopefully NOAA makes some changes, pretty embarrassing.
  13. cptcatz
    Lol what a mess. Just two days ago GFS thought this would be a bonafide category 2 hurricane.
  14. cptcatz
    As I type this it is 06z on Thursday 10/23 and Melissa is a sloppy weak tropical storm with a central pressure of 1002 mb. Let's look back and see what the GFS predicted Melissa would be at this time: 10/22 18z: 997 10/22 12z: 999 10/22 6z: 1003 10/22 00z: 999 10/21 18z: 988 10/21 12z: 981 10/21 6z: 984 10/21 00z: 977 10/20 18z: 976 10/20 12z: 970 lol why we would trust the GFS model right now?
  15. cptcatz
    How close to florida do you think we could see?
  16. cptcatz
    Pressure rising and wobbling southwest. Time to take GFS out back and shoot it. With king euro reigning, it'll be very interesting to see how strong this gets in the western caribbean sea.
  17. cptcatz
    06z gfs may be even worse. That shows like 10 straight days of TS/ hurricane impacts?
  18. cptcatz
    We've got 2 weeks left of October. I wouldn't count any of those things out until we're closer to the end of the month.
  19. cptcatz
    True but we also had two category 5's this year, two category 5's last year, and the boiling caribbean hasn't been remotely touched this year. So it's entirely safe to say that if atmospheric conditions allow, something could easily blow up in caribbean in late October.
  20. cptcatz
    20 years ago today Hurricane Wilma formed and became the most intense hurricane ever in the atlantic basin. Just saying...
  21. cptcatz
    Not sure it's a tropical cyclone anymore lol. Where did the center go?
  22. cptcatz
    Is it really october if the long range gfs doesn't show a catastrophe for south florida?
  23. cptcatz
    September 20 Euro and GFS runs: no tropical development through October 6. lol at all the people saying the lid was gonna come off in the second half of September and early October. After Gabrielle that MDR is closed for the season, could still see a Caribbean/Gulf storm in October but this season will be a massive forecast bust.
  24. cptcatz
    Euro and GFS both showing nothing through September 20. Time to start bringing 2013 into conversation...
  25. cptcatz
    00z Euro and 06z GFS are amazingly almost identical in the 240-360 hour range. Both crush the bahamas and then ride up the southeast coast.
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