cptcatz

Ok so maybe the eyewall misses the metro, but if it landfalls at Longboat Key where models show it today and then moves into South Bradenton, that puts the entire Tampa metro within about a 45 mile radius of the center. NHC says hurricane force winds extend out 30 miles right now and they explicitly said they expect the windfield to double in size. That puts all of Tampa metro in hurricane force winds. Not to mention that path takes it right over Orlando metro next. Surge aside, this is going to be a mess in those large populated areas.

One big difference is even if it does landfall around Sarasota and spares TB of the surge, the northern eyewall will still rake the sprawling Tampa metro of 3.2 million people with probably 100+ mph winds. While it may not be catastrophic damage, the widespread power outages and minor structural damage can add up quickly.

Looks like 06z Euro is trending a tad south around Sarasota and 06z GEFS has TB at the far northern end of the ensembles with a bunch betweeen Sarasota and Fort Myers. Wonder if this southern trend will continue.

First pass: 926.7 mb, peak flight wind 126 knots

Recon recorded wind speeds really don't support an increase. These last two passes are actually a tad weaker than the first pass of the evening. Could be flattening out now.

Airliners are flying at 37,000 feet, well above the storm that far from the center.

Interesting thing I just noticed. Assuming UKXI is drunk and not including that, there are still four models showing this staying as cat 5 for another 108 hours. Anyone know what those models are seeing that the others aren't?

The only thing that bothers me is when there are two planes in at the same time and then none for a few hours. Like why can't they stagger them?

Anyone know when the next plane takes off?

Unfortunately that's an upper level dropsonde mission. Will be good for forecast but not to get updated storm data.

Wow amazing recon data. Gotta think a NHC upgrade is imminent. Question is what will they put it as. 150 mph?

943 MSLP just recorded in this pass. Jesus...

I wonder if that blip in altitude was intentional when they punched through the eye or if they just got rocked by the eyewall.

Cancun has a radar which may pick up the eye depending on how close it gets https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/es/observando-el-tiempo/radares-meteorologicos-separador/visor-radares-v3

I'll add that the weakening of the eyewall but expanding of the windfield, especially in this area of the Florida peninsula, is that it could cause more widespread power outages across the state. Kinda like comparing Charley vs Irma. Charley hit as a tiny 150 mph storm and caused catastrophic damage in basically a 10-mile wide swath, but not basically no impacts outside that swath. Whereas Irma hit the peninsula as a massive 115 mph storm but caused 7.7 million customers to lose power, equating to 73% of the state. So if Milton loses its punch in the eye but expands its tropical storm force windfield causing more widespread power outages in the metros of the Florida peninsula, it's kind of a wash.

989 to 986 between passes in about an hour and 20 minutes. If it keeps up this rate I don't think the low 900s is out of the question tomorrow.

75 knot flight level wind. Should be a hurricane now.

Pretty sure every recorded storm has this graphic available on Wikipedia

This is ridiculous to say. First of all, Milton seems to have a higher ceiling with multiple models showing possible cat 5. Even if it weakens before landfall the surge will still be there (see Katrina). Second, Helene's surge was over swamp land of the big bend while Miltons will be over developed beachfront properties. Third, even if it hits south of Tampa and spares Tampa Bay, that likely means Fort Myers gets the worst of it which is just now starting to bounce back from Ian. So basically it's a tossup between surge destruction in Tampa Bay or in Fort Myers, either of them will be bad.

So recon just marked it at 993 mb. NHC had it at 1003 mb. This is going to get interesting. And this probably belongs in the other thread but GFS now has multiple runs showing another major hurricane hitting florida the following week...

Wow recon is showing it much stronger than we thought! Those hurricane models could be on to something...

Is this the most frightening model image seen in a long time?

GFS coming in even stronger. 956 mb at hour 66

They both came from the south but Ian and Charley both moved across the state from west to east.

Wow that's like legit close to being a tropical storm already. Nice thing about this tracking so close to the CONUS for its entire life will be we should get lots of recon flights. Hopefully they start flying soon.