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cptcatz

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  1. cptcatz
    For what it's worth, the 12z CMC shows the remnants reorganizing in the Florida straits and then riding up the east coast of Florida as a formidable tropical storm. If the remnants can stay together, I don't think it's out of question that it can reform closer to the conus. We've seen open waves reorganize plenty of times.
  2. cptcatz
    All of a sudden looks like TS Dolly...
  3. cptcatz
    Shear is low and is forecasted to remain low on the area of the Bahamas, where the SSTs are also around record highs. If a system can get there, there's no reason why it can't blow up like Andrew or Dorian did in that area.
  4. cptcatz
    Lol seriously. I don't need an hour by hour recap of what Andrew did 34 years ago on this day.
  5. cptcatz
    I feel like this is the first August in many years where there are healthy waves coming off Africa without Saharan dust, and yet they can't do anything because of the crazy shear. If that shear wasn't there, this could have been an impressive August that we haven't seen in a while. Oh well.
  6. cptcatz
    And just like that GFS goes poof for everything. As Green Day once said, wake me up when El nino ends.
  7. cptcatz
    There's a real chance of a cat 5 hitting Shanghai. I don't really know anything about Asian typhoon history... Would this be unprecedented in that area? Would that cause the same kind of catastrophic damage as a cat 5 hitting a major US city?
  8. cptcatz
    114 kt FL winds recorded. Pushing cat 3 again. She just won't give up.
  9. cptcatz
    Looks like White House should have clear skies right now. Crawford may be just inside the eye right now. Hopefully Josh can have a few minutes of sunshine to go outside and document.
  10. cptcatz
    892, 185 mph. Landfall at this intensity would tie 1935 as strongest ever.
  11. cptcatz
    The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane was the only Atlantic hurricane to make landfall below 900 mb, which hit at 892. This can very well be the strongest ever to make landfall.
  12. cptcatz
    This will probably be up there with Dorian as his craziest eye. Anyways, recon about to go through the eye...
  13. cptcatz
    And the 5am and 11pm
  14. cptcatz
    Did that pass miss the center?
  15. cptcatz
    Almost looks like a giant supercell you'd see in Oklahoma
  16. cptcatz
    Looks like it's bottoming out with this latest pass. Pressure still around 910 and FL wind still at 156 kt.
  17. cptcatz
    If an ERC happens soon, it could mean much worse impacts over bigger areas. Right now the storm is really small. If it turned north right now, eastern Jamaica wouldn't even get hurricane force winds and surge would be minimal outside of the small core.
  18. cptcatz
    Recon first pass: 155 kt FL winds, pressure 912, incredible dropsonde
  19. cptcatz
    Except 11 hours late. It was not a 140 mph storm when they said it was at 5am. It strengthened into a 140 mph storm throughout the day.
  20. cptcatz
    Looks like the plane is going home. Anyone know when the next flight is scheduled?
  21. cptcatz
    I'm no expert on the socioeconomics of Jamaica but I would guess the tourist areas would fare better than the higher poverty areas of Kingston. Kingston getting the worse of it would likely cause a humanitarian crisis.
  22. cptcatz
    Second pass: slightly higher winds in the NE eyewall but no change in pressure and no support of 140 mph winds.
  23. cptcatz
    Also interesting to note is this is a pretty small storm right now. Impressive winds barely reach past the eyewall.
  24. cptcatz
    Interesting dropsonde though. Really impressive winds higher up but not reaching down to the surface.
  25. cptcatz
    First pass of the morning shows it weaker than NHC estimated. Is it topping out?
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