JakkelWx

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

We saw s SE jackpot shift from the12-17 event to the recent one on 1-31 to 2-2. BGM was the epicenter on 12-17 and that moved over to Northern NJ with the recent storm. The blocking was weaker in December so this allowed the low to tuck in over Southern NJ. The blocking intensified this past weekend and the low tucked in a little further east of ACY. Now with the strongest blocking of the whole season and years coming up, maybe the storm track will shift more SE toward the BM. So perhaps at some point this month ,we get the maximum snowfall totals from a KU setting up on Long Island to Southern New England.

Or hitting the Mid-Atlantic with 2 feet of snow while giving NYC some cirrus clouds and flurries.

first of all its the Canadian ensemble and it's only showing that extreme cold over Alaska because Canadians hate Alaska.

March will probably be warm, because usually springs after a -AO/-NAO winter are warmer than normal IIRC

On 1/26/2021 at 11:52 AM, JakkelWx said:

1/20 - Trace

1/25 - Dusting

Seasonal total: Traceting

1/20 - Trace

1/25 - Dusting

1/31 - Feb 2nd - 3.5''

Seasonal total: 3.5''

This is not an arctic "bust". You're looking at forecasts that are based off the GFS which probably doesn't have a clue. Both the GEFS and EPS support an extended period of much colder than normal temperatures. 

So far we will still have a strong west based NAO after a few days which will stucken the polar vortex over eastern Canada.

Shouldn't expect it to fix itself magically overnight. We know it'll be run after run of a miss because the GFS just sucks. Period.

(Unless the EUro shows the same thing)

8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Are u sure u are a snow weenie 

Yes I still am. I am still worried about snow mean maps, ptype maps and the rain/snow line from a D5 threat.

The storm is over. Finally.

9% probability of 48'' or greater 

3 minutes ago, SnowtoRain said:

I'm going to buy a second winter home in salisbury to cash in the sweet winter snows.

 I wish you good luck. They get about 50 inches of snow a winter. There's an awesome ski resort on the west side of town

It's gonna snow in February

Just now, Hypothetical 240 hour snow said:

Ended up with just over 5 inches total... snow depth about 3-4 inches due to slight melting and compaction. Maybe about the 25th percentile of the range I was expecting, but can't complain... biggest event in like 2 years lol.

Do you think it ends up snowing for 240 hours here? It seems like it never ends.

Has anyone died in that house before? 

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’m gonna go out on a

limb and say that ain’t happenin 

Yeah I know... But imagine if it did. That would be insane. Just talking weenie 

What if the Jan 31- Feb 2nd 2021 storm is the Jan 30 2010 before the Feb 5th 2010 snowmageddon?? 

@CAPE This block is gonna be on steroids:

We have this patern going for us.

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I am not putting the kibosh on the Sunday storm, it’s tricky but could happen, but the period after that is a more classic way we score. There will be a pretty extended window after the block retrogrades again and the tpv shifts through the 50/50 to get something to amplify the trough. I would say like 4-5 days. That’s enough time for multiple SWs to have a shot at it.  Just need one to break off the tail of the trough and dig into the east to link up with the STJ. 

Yep, I am more confident that sometime around the tenth of Feb that we get a more classic storm. Won't need much luck with this pattern:

Just now, HighStakes said:

The entire post storm set up changed on this run. No longer record breaking cold. I guess we have to be careful how far inland this low can get.

What are you talking about?

Here comes the euro.

Can this snow go away? It's not accumulating to anything. Useless snow

12 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Yeah, not necessarily favoring the GFS here.

Why would anyone favor the GFS?

Snow is already melting here, the February sun angle is already having an effect through the clouds.