JakkelWx

ICON = Iconic start to the 00z suite.

The period around the 12th-14th is starting to gather my attention. Won't get too invested until I see more model runs portray the same general idea for another couple days.

3 minutes ago, gopper said:

V

Great post. We need more like it.

2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The scene in WV this morning. That drift is about 4.5’ deep

Must've snowed a lot there

It's daylight all the way to 6 PM now

The eastern shore is the southeast of the Mid-Atlantic forum.

I have been packing a lot of things up lately, getting ready to move out for Florida. I am considering moving a month or so earlier, instead of April it may be late February. I haven't made the final decision whether to leave earlier than originally planned, or stay until April. I favor the former as there's nothing really stopping me from moving out a month early.

I'll likely have made the decision by mid-next week or late week. My last winter of worrying about snow (thank god) because I find being a weather hobbyist in the winter frustrating. It's only frozen water like come on. Yet it's like playing a video game or being a fan of a sports team for some unknown reason. 

Just now, CAPE said:

I said earlier today 2-4 seems about right. Mount Holly has 1-3 here currently. We shall see!

2-4 here is absolutely perfect and the fact that we have potentially storm after storm after this one eases my woes

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

You got your NW shift dude.

This is getting worrisome. Another N shift like 18z and it's only an inch or two of slop followed by cold rain. I wouldn't even look outside in disgust.

NAM too close for comfort with the rain/snow line. I really hope this ticks back S a little.

Is it a good or a bad sign for snow when Wentz's phone battery is very low?

18 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Eps increased the signal for midweek to late week . Nice hits in there . Mean is plenty cold overall . The signal looks more snowy then icy imo 

Eps basically says don't put the shovels away for at least the next 7-10 

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

12z GEFS looks cold and more suggestive of snow than ice for our region late next week.

Having the feeling that tracking that threat won't be easy.

The ICON is showing rain with temps in the mid 20s because the melting point of snow is 25 degrees in 2021.

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I'm thinking 8-10:1 given the mid-level frontogen involved with the wave. The s/w is still fairly prolific on guidance right now and there's going to be significant large scale ascent from the 25H jet amplifying to the north. I think one of the things the globals are not going to pick up on is that meso banding is all but a given with the current 7H progs. The 7H fronto AND 85H fronto will actually work in your favor, so you'll have deeper boundary layer lift compared to areas north and west. They have the mid-level fronto, but eastern shore will likely cash on both, which is why I like your spot, Easton, Kent Island, down to Cambridge as the local jack with central DE as another good spot pending the northern latitude push of the surface low along the coast. I'm rooting for you!

woot woot!

The best accumulations I expect from this storm are about 1, 2 or maybe even 3 inches. Gonna go with the lower end

Mentally recharged. The GFS has been consistent in showing ridiculous levels of high pressure over the whole entire arctic. This run basically speaks for itself:

@CAPE Yeah I agree. My posts have been erratic, likely because I am just exhausted from all the tracking that I have done. I think it would be best if I just take a break for a little while.

1 minute ago, JakkelWx said:

Of course you have to crap on the threat for the coast.

Nevermind I can see why

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Temps are problematic for I95 and east.  Need it to be amped up enough to gain some latitude and have it close enough to the coast for meaningful precip, but in that case the lack of low level cold is an issue. As usual with only marginal cold air around , the best chance of accumulating snow is NW, assuming precip makes it there.

Of course you have to crap on the threat for the coast.

Gimme 10 'fiddy

Avg high here now: 44.7

Feb 15: 47.0

Mar 1: 50.3

1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

Don't know why everyone is panicking, it's only temporary...yeesh what is wrong with you people

Not sure what you mean, February 2010 is happening next week

We're not getting a ridge in the east with a west-based NAO.

ENSO update on TT. It looks like the La Nina has been weakening some.