Malacka11

From LOT

 

.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024

The winter storm is now on our doorstep this evening as we
continue to monitor upstream trends. Impressive dynamics over a
large footprint across the central CONUS are becoming evident via
radar and satellite imagery with a blossoming baroclinic leaf
across the MO/mid-MS valleys and rapidly developing convection
across OK/AR. The congealing area of both custers of upstream
convection will align well with substantial moisture transport and
deep isentropic ascent into the CWA concurrent with a contracting
low to mid-level baroclinic zone late tonight into mid-morning
Friday. A resulting impressive F-Gen signal with slowing northward
extent combined with 7C/km 700-400 hPa lapse rates yields some
concern that 1-2"/hr snowfall will become common within the precip
shield well into Friday morning. The embedded convective elements
within the precip shield (and perhaps a stray rumble of thunder
south of the Chicago metro) supports increasing forecast snowfall
totals through at least late morning Friday. The incoming 00Z CAM
suite is in surprisingly good agreement that 1hr QPF rates will
reach 0.1-0.2" per hour for several hours into the Chicago metro
between 4-9am. Even with SLR values potentially as low as 5-7:1,
snowfall totals of 3-5" of very wet snow would not be surprising
in just a few hours.

No changes to headlines were made with the updates as the bulk of
increase in the snowfall forecast is within the ongoing Winter
Storm Warnings. But we will continue to highlight the potentially
very hazardous morning commute across all of northern Illinois and
especially within the Chicago metro.

Kluber

Not that it means shit but love the rain/snow line crashing south run to run on the HRRR. Did that last time too ofc

3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

18z Euro with the bump NW.

Wisconsin gets the goods. up into N-L. Michigan.

Pics or it didn't happen

Just now, SchaumburgStormer said:

You didn’t believe hard enough. This bunker runs on weenie dreams and NAM clown maps

I'm all in. I actually never left lol I was just chillin in the back under the pong table. Does that mean I owe you like a week's rent?

A lot of CAMs seem to feature a pretty strong band on the very tail end of the storm, wonder how that would be with strong winds and the cold rushing in. 

50 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Helped clean the secondary roads up a good bit ahead of the next round. Me and my FWD sedan will appreciate that as my commute is short but follows a quite hilly, curvy road.

The old Tornado Intercept Shitbox and I had quite the time in the slush the other day. Tomorrow will give me a run for my money... 

1 minute ago, Possum said:

This feels like a dumb question but can anyone give me odds on a 9:30am flight on Saturday out of Midway happening? I’ve got some nephews in Dallas who are excited to see me, but the thought of trying to dig out that morning and make it from Humboldt Park to Midway just to sit around through delays and possibly cancellation instead of being cozy at home is stressing me out.


.

@Stebo is your guy to ask but unless this thing flops like a fish there's no way you wouldn't at least be delayed substantially I would think

Got that "calm before the storm" vibe going on out there 

2 minutes ago, Paulie21 said:

There's a good consensus on the morning stuff really ripping across NE IL at ~12Z
Very strong lift nearly maxing out in the shallow DGZ and then some. Steep lapse rates above 700mb with a hint of some frontogenetic banding. Truly cannot rule out some TSSN in this weenie band. Gonna be snow globing right in time for morning commute. 
Edit: Also, just looked at bufkit, some near 0 EPV in a large portion of this column for a couple hours.

What's your take on how far north the warmth pushes thereafter, if you don't mind?

1 minute ago, Baum said:

stared at snow in the lights for hours as a kid. Best Christmas gift at 5 was a weather radio. checked out every tornado/hurricane book in the library in grade school-at once. They came looking for me. By college I was calling and talking to skilling about every incoming storm. Dude, took about every call. By early adulthood I despised the late great Jerry Taft and his 1-3" storm calls....than the internet came and I discovered this chaotic lunacy.

Those must be some good memories to have of talking to Skilling personally. Sounds like he's a great guy. I feel like I certainly missed out on the heyday of weather fanaticism but at least I'm here now even if things are a lot quieter than they were. 

2 minutes ago, Baum said:

I'm figuring 6" easy. Not going to sweat it. In RC I trust.

That's where I'm at too. If I can get the night wfh that would be a win for me. 

2 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

I think you have to be to thoroughly (obsessively) enjoy weather like we do

For real. I was playing Storm Chaser on the playground in first grade with my friends... Idk when I started caring about winter weather too but now it's honestly my favorite. Can't really justify chasing quite yet after I got myself hit last year so this is all I've got. It had better fucking snow tomorrow.

1 minute ago, Baum said:

obv looking for a laugh, but heck it could be cloudy  and 35 like the last 30 days. And of course, if this is your hobby my assertion is correct.

You're right, we're definitely all a little neurodivergent in here 

Just now, Baum said:

you people are nuts.

Why 

2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Love having a huge storm incoming that we will basically have to nowcast.

Fr I like your call of 8ish but this is so silly again, I was hoping for a slam dunk kind of situation just once. Oh well, unless things go super north and warm after all I think we're in a better spot than the majority of posters here sooo

Feel like this storm might do even more tree damage than normal because of the way residual snow is sticking around. The wet nature of the last snow and melting and freezing over the last two nights has formed these little ice lumps covering everything, frozen on tight. 

imagecompressor.zip

12 minutes ago, michaelmantis said:

My location on the NAM map you posted. Talk about the teeny-tinesy screw hole imaginable...

I'm going to try to forget about this thing until the afternoon AFDs. 

That's actually a local maximum. The blues over the lake are the lower end. Not that it makes the overall map any better lol

6 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

If anyone has specific LOT centric questions on forecast stuff from today, ask away and I'll try to reply a bit later.

Apologies for the lack of a more in depth meteorological dissertation in the AFD lol - just less and less time available for us on days like this.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

What is your personal take on ratios in the farther outlying suburbs around the city? 

Just now, A-L-E-K said:

0z nam will be a chicago crusher, u can tell

Never any doubt, our CAM moment will come

We all know how this game works everything is proceeding as well as one can expect other than the shit ratios overall.

12 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

My favorite thing in the world is these random twitter thread posted here with minimal explanation as to how they would modify sensible weather in the midwest. 

Chat GPT posting habits (I know my posts are also low value but bruh)

I imagine tonight's LOT forecast discussion -and hopefully many of them in the next few days if we can stay on course- will be save worthy. 

Another banger run of the Euro. Absolute JDAM missile for Chicago. 

That uh... 00z GEFS anyone?

2 minutes ago, mimillman said:

At hour 48 on the GFS. Heights are more amped ahead of the low, which is also deeper. SE ridge is more pronounced and trough is digging deeper. This is coming west this run

Reading this was soothing to my soul