Malacka11

Long Range Pattern February 10th Onward:

While the first 9-10 days of February may be one of the warmest if
not the warmest on record, a mid month pattern change after
February 10th to a colder (seasonable or colder) and at least
somewhat active pattern is favored.

The passage of the aforementioned cold front toward the end of
next week will be the first signs of the impending pattern
change. Toward and after Valentine`s Day, mid and upper level
ridging will develop and establish itself near the west coast
and extend up to or just north of Alaska. The western ridging is
known as a +PNA (positive Pacific North American)
teleconnections pattern, and the ridging near Alaska is known as
a -EPO (negative East Pacific Oscillation). In response to the
upstream mid and upper level ridging (think a rise or bump in
the jet stream), downstream troughing (think of a dip or buckle
in the jet stream) will develop and establish over central and
eastern North America. Meanwhile, high latitude blocking in the
Arctic and North Atlantic (generally near Greenland) is expected
to develop, leading to a -AO (negative Arctic Oscillation) and
-NAO (negative North Atlantic Oscillation) teleconnections.

As troughing develops across the central and eastern US and
ridging manifests to the west and over Greenland, a seasonably
cold air mass from interior Canada should discharge into the
Midwest and potentially get "locked" in place. Meanwhile,
depending on the exact positioning and amplitude of western
ridging, an active El Nino subtropical jet (STJ) may continue to
cut underneath the ridging and feature associated disturbances
tracking eastward toward the Lower Great Lakes. Taken together,
the return of seasonably cold or colder air masses should bring
an attendant return of more regular occurrences of precipitation
to the general region, including the wintry variety, toward and
during the 2nd half of February. Stay tuned!

Castro

28 minutes ago, rainsucks said:

My birthday’s also on the 11th, neat coincidence

Guess we're gonna have to thread that needle 

My birthday is the eleventh. If we get blue balled again precisely around then it would be pretty funny tbh cause from my perspective, you know it has to happen

I can't wait for this weekend

15 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Looking forward to seeing sunshine tomorrow after a full week of dark gloom.

Lmao hopefully you have better luck out there cause I think I'm SOL 

3 minutes ago, mimillman said:

It’s really bad out. Side streets and sidewalks totally iced over. Could barely walk the dog. If this continues overnight it’s going to be really dangerous for tomorrow morning commute and I don’t think people really get it 

Literally couldn't get my 2wd stick shitbox out of the neighborhood. Main roads were okay. Pull up to point B and the second my feet hit the ground I fall out of my car onto the ice-covered ground. 

Curious to see how well our snowpack can hold up. To my understanding it looks like past Wednesday, there isn't much in the way of rain coming this way and we look to dodge a serious torch. I can't really recall how quickly 30-40F thaws things out. 

15 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Sidewalks very slick downtown. Can only imagine what it’s like at home 

I almost ate shit about five times so far today

On 1/19/2024 at 12:18 AM, Brian D said:

I put big pics into Paint, then resize. Then save as gif to reduce from MB to KB. Look just fine when I post them here. Same with NWS story boards, that are many times 1-2 MB png.

This is the knowledge I've been searching for for years. Thanks king

Keeping it $1.50 with yall if I had to choose between another couple weeks of actual winter or getting the lake comfortably swimmable ASAP... I think unless the former actually delivers something historic, I'd have to choose the latter. Just feeling a little blue-balled still like @Baum said. 

Crazy how 23° feels like 65° after having to wear my dad's old army-issued snow onesie that I finessed years ago on dog walks the last few days

If we could just keep a bit of the snowpack somehow that would be swagallicous but alas

Consider this a bonus round if it actually pans out decently. Just please not the fgen close miss north then south or some shit like LOT mentions 

It's snowing pretty decently here (albeit with smaller flake size) under the tiniest queef of a radar return so I can only imagine that it's coming down decently out west

3 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

Nobody kill me..(I know we all have been begging for a GLC).  But I miss the guarantee of a clipper.  One of those hybrid west to east overperformers with a gulf/Pac connection 

That's exactly what I'm saying. I have only fond memories of them

5 minutes ago, DocATL said:

I’m not sure though because it really loses its punch pretty quickly on the backside.


.

That's my fear too. Just enough to dust everything is satisfactory in my book. 

3 minutes ago, DocATL said:

An inch or two tops overnight. NWS says things dry out for most of the evening.


.

Shit, I would be giddy with a wind-whipled inch, let alone two, to freshen things up again real quick before the hard freeze. I'd take that and runnn

Looks like if we're lucky, maybe someone gets a chance at squeezing something out of a clipperish thang next Thursdayish. Hopefully no mixing issues with that 

Unless I'm missing something, precip looks to end mostly around here within the next two hours. Maybe some backside snow overnight, and it's a wrap. It's nice that the morning thump actually delivered; it's the only thing keeping this storm from being an L instead of just an L. 

Just now, mimillman said:

We are still RN- here

Same but it gives me hope, likely misplaced ofc

Is the changeover being shown down south legit or just a blip?

1 minute ago, Roger Smith said:

Latest thoughts ... Rather slow improvements will return to n IL as n.w. lobe of dual low is slowly robbed of warmth, better snow rates will return to Chicago after 6 pm and peak around midnight as wind backs to NE then NNE. Further south in IL, done for a while then picks up to moderate snow and blowing snow around 7-9 pm. ... Northern IN holds on to heavy wet snow for a while, dry slots, brief rain/snow mix, eventually N to NW winds bring in lake effect after midnight, blizzard conditions for a while SBN to La Porte. 

Into w Michigan, slow saturation of surface layers will result in gradual irregular increase in rates until S+ by the time primary low is near FWA and secondary is near s end of Lake Michigan late afternoon-evening, then periods of S+ merging eventually with SW+ from lake effect by morning. That will be the general scenario east to Jackson-Ann Arbor, interval of heavy wet snow likely in Detroit around 5-7 pm and after that intermittent light snow with brief moderate snowfall in decaying lake effect. 

Wisconsin, apart from some mixing issues at lakefront south of Racine-Kenosha, will get into bands of heavy snow separated by light to moderate, slowly accumulating to reach 12-15 in totals. Winds will increase from northeast and at least blizzard conditions in open rural areas if not all areas. N lower Michigan will rock as discussed in thread.

Don't see total bust for MSP but 1-2" blowing around in very cold wind, instead of 4-6" not all that different, would not want to be out in it by tonight (at my location, crystal clear and -8 F at 9:30 PST). 

Toronto area I would agree with what I read earlier, 5-10 cm this evening, snow, sleet and/or ice pellet showers could include thunder. 

For many in IL it will be a case of two storm periods and a long pause lasting rest of daylight hours but part two could be quite intense as well. Gradient around secondary low tightens rapidly after about 21z.  

I'll take what you're selling gladly but I'm a little skeptical of much accumulation later

3 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

I have some sort of precip falling, but through the window I cannot tell if it is rain or sleet. 

Drizzling slightly over here. If whatever precip does develop overhead falls as not rain that'd be great 

2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Cromartie's revenge 

I mean in a twisted sort of way I suppose it's our revenge no

Precip starting to blossom rather rapidly downstream. Would be nice to fill in the hole, maybe keep some snow going for a little while longer. The western dry edge has reached us now but there's some impressive stuff a little south that might be trying to veer off just long enough to clip us again. Winds are still strong, you know the house crunching shakey type.