Malacka11

3 hours ago, Lightning said:

How about we hold off starting storm threads until it is within 3 days (i.e. worthless NAM range)???  

I think this is good plan, having a "rule" will help with the urge to start a thread the second it feels semi plausible for an event to occur. My issue is that the thought of not starting a thread early enough for an event that does happen gives me anxiety

7 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

Not just the GFS, Euro did something similar.

I feel like the Euro was almost worse this time around no? Wasn't it the only OP to have a proper big dog? Only to trend to turd FROPA in less than a day too?

Continuing my trend of obnoxious optimism... At least it happened now and not on the 23rd.

euro more like you're a ho

Even if it's a tease we usually don't even get one of those for a while still

I like our placement between models but as always now, I fear a one-run transition to an event with a much lower ceiling. 

Question: why is it that, for example, the 06z GFS offered a pretty bland storm while the 06z GEFS was pretty crazy with the vast majority of members with a storm depicting a much more impressive event than the OP?

13 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

It's really a subjective conversation. Rogue mentioned that the first real snow threat last winter wasn't til Dec 23rd. And I brought up the Arctic front snow band from Nov 19. The word "heavy" was I guess the key word for everyone. I meant heavy in terms of visib at DTW going below a quarter mile, not that 1.7" is a ton of snow lol. But my point was that the lakes often "help us" in MI when synoptic is zzzz.

Yeah, that's what I assumed you meant too. Regardless of quantity, that amount of snow accounting for initial melt has to mean that it was coming down pretty hard for a time.

Correct me if I'm wrong but I feel like once we get into the medium range, the models have gotten a lot more consistent at showing the same changes in thinking simultaneously, even if they're not necessarily correct. Like with next weekend's potential, all of the models have exhibited a dramatic changeup in the last 18 hours but they're doing it together, for better or worse. There hasn't been nearly as much "catching up" ya know?

38 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Considering we got almost a foot of snow in less than 12 hrs in mid November not too long ago, but I need to respect that nickle and diming gets some excited. I just hope we can get a decent snow in early December. It seems more often than not, December is boring. These last 3 days of foggy cold rain makes me question why anyone would live here this time of year lol.

In all honesty my point of memery was just heavy snow rates vs heavy snow totals: I thought we were talking more about the former than the latter lol. Nickel and dimeing gets me hyped when there's potential for some stacking or if it's actually setting the mood for the holidays/birthdays/in general if I'm feeling it. Other than that it's not crazy to me.

59 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

josh's criteria for heavy is different than ours....

Just my $.02 but -assuming I'm reading that right- 1.7" in two hours or less while accounting for November ground temps sounds like a pretty decent thumping to me. 

9 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

First real snow threat wasn't until 12/23 last winter over here. Followed by another month of boring crap. 

Exactly. And even that felt shockingly early to me. Usually the first real medium/long range threat with some real balls takes forever to even be hinted at.

Correct me if I'm wrong but I feel like several years in previous memory didn't even give us the first shitty thread the needle event if only for tracking purposes until around now. At least it looks active for the foreseeable future. 

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

 

I'm kind of impressed by the longevity of this snow. I guess I just didn't pay attention to expected temps but I was under the impression that everything would melt within a day tops. Still 95% white out there with these temps 

Maybe some extreme needle threading later next week?

24 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Although I'm fine with this outcome before the holidays, I hope it's not a trend for the winter.   

 

[narrator's voiceover]

It is. 

Genuine question for the well-informed among us. What determines whether next weekend's system -that I'm sure we're all quietly observing- blows up into something decent or shits itself out across the central US?

7 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I had him on ignore, but then other people would respond to his jokes and it was too tempting to not join in. Anwx needs a block button, especially since it's ok to have no mods

The silver lining in it all is that at least your posts are interesting and educational to balance things out 

I just don't understand how none of you get tired of this conversation. Even if you are shitposting god damn dude

Wasn't really expecting rates like this from the very first flakes of the year, it feels like we're picking right up where we left off with the few squall events of last winter

24 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Welcome (back). What Stebo said is fact tho. GFS already spitting maps that look like winter, lol

4 minutes ago, Stebo said:

No, why would I give a shit about having a green lawn, hell if it was up to me I would have no lawn but a community garden or botanical garden. Both better for the environment too.

pollinator haven ftw

Lmao just wait until PalmBro drops the mic right in the middle of an 18z SE/weaker run. I almost desintegrated at the molecular level on one such occasion last year

Just now, Chicago Storm said:

hi.

Hi

Second day in a row of watching the popcorn shid and fard itself to smithereens just a county SSW. At least it rains overnight ig