Malacka11

1 minute ago, frostfern said:

I was not okay when the ECMWF caved SE.  Hoping for the NAM to verify is like pissing in the wind.

Yes, with the wind blowing away from you

Sure the NAM may have shifted SE but it's still on a different plane of reality than the lame models. 

5 minutes ago, Chicago916 said:

With a mean like that, there must be some crazy, impossible totals on some of the ensemble members through NE IL.

"Impossible"

3 minutes ago, Baum said:

As long as that band is modeled within 50-100 miles,esp SE, I refuse to bail. Way too many times seen those LP's  coming up like that pull  NW or throw moisture further back than modeled. Prepared to go down with the ship, as they say. It's not all models, to me. Climo and history play a part as well. Suspect the NAM will cave southeast as well here soon. But until I see the whites of it's eyes on  radar presentation tommorow morning going to have stay the course. 

That's where I am too, albeit off of much less experience. The models aren't even weakening the low, it's just moving farther SE anyway. IIRC RC explained days ago how aspects of this setup could lend themselves to that occuring but the wiener in me won't back off. Odds are this really will be the last shot of the year that gets to this range at all so might as well give it the old college try. 

1 minute ago, Baum said:

post 12Z model update:

 

Glad you're still with me <3

2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Wow. Jokingly, it really doesn't get much more bullseyeish than that for Chicago 

6 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

The 00z Euro bumped back northwest some from the 18z run. It remains a very tough forecast. Impacts will be higher end in the heart of the band within the CWA, barring a UKMET or GEM like outcome. Lapse rates in the DGZ are progged to exceed 7C/km and there's quite a bit of -epv above strong fgen.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

Oh kind soul, could you slide that EPS data when the time arises 

14 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Last 3 runs of the GEFS 24-hour 10:1 snowfall mean.

Edit: Added 00z GEFS members. Pretty large spread this close to the event.

Lucky #13

Okay the GFS didn't crush Chicago but it is another bump back NW.

If the GFS crushes Chicago this next run you guys all have to zelle me $5.

1 minute ago, Stebo said:

Both look like they may come in NW Meanwhile the HRRR is definitely in the south camp.

For sure but the 0z HRRR is a lightyear more amped than its 18z run. I'm sure that between now and radarcasting time it'll throw out at least one weenie chicago crusher because why not. 

The NAM is another 3 mb stronger at 09z Friday 

HRRR looks okay. Now we're just gonna have to hone this puppy in. 

This is gonna be a 00z suite to remember 

Easy toss move it a county or two back NW

The GEFS looks even better than 12z..

1 minute ago, NEILwxbo said:

I mean if you look at it this way, the NAM and Euro are in pretty good agreement…

And the GEFS isn't far off...

So the NAM ends up being 6mb stronger and still SE. That's a third solution to the situation ig

6 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

yeah, shame about the airmass tho because this is hotness

Maybe this is just one of those where some how it overcomes the shitty warm antecedent air mass and we get pounded just cause?

Just now, A-L-E-K said:

eurythmics.mp3

Rather that than the lame shit the 48 hour HRRR is showing

Nam is coming in pretty strong this run compared to last.

Honestly I like where I sit. 

1 minute ago, sbnwx85 said:

What do we think? Cut these totals on the 10:1 map in half? 

I'd still be happy with that tbh