Malacka11

I guess that's exactly what I do, just try and analyze differences run to run. Where I guess I break down is understanding why models show what they do and recognizing, for example, synoptic setups conducive to constructive phasing in a general sense. In this case, I can look at 500mb geo height maps all day and see where different pieces of energy are coming from. Looks like shit from the Pacific (?) and some crap riding down the rockies (?) could conceptually come together, but the setup is otherwise seemingly too progressive (?) Now, there's still a moderate HP center out in front of this, but obviously its impact is much less than in our last system where iirc heights kept building slightly over canada with every run instead of trending the opposite way (?) Obviously this is a major oversimplification but that's the point I suppose - I wish I knew how Again, I am not trying to equate this system with the last let alone say I have any hopes for it. It's just the next upcoming case study.

It's a struggle sometimes to ask questions genuinely stemming from curiosity for fear of seeming like a wishcaster. It's tough because (understandably) nobody posts a damn fucking thing until the elephant is basically addressing itself. Again, competely understandable, but this is the mfing Winter 2025-26 Medium/Long Range Discussion™ thread so let's chat: What's up with about 150ish hours from now? What dictates the degree of phasing between the various pieces that could be involved? Even if it phases into a 1-3 incher, what might control that? I truly want to stress that I'm just looking to understand large-scale, basic stuff here and not fishing for hope -- nor doomer shit. Even if you aren't pro, what do you think? If you are absolutely not paying attention because it's DOA, then why?

The last one stung a bit because we at least marginally had skin in the game, but with that not being an issue this time around, I'll freely say I'm hoping EC weenies manage to reel their upcoming shot in. Ik they're dooming pretty hard in there but that would be a truly amazing snowpack for someone if it did manage to happen, and my soul hurts on their behalf just thinking about missing out (even understanding that it's not exactly a slam dunk setup)

If I can walk away with an inch to keep appearances up I'll be happy. Anything above that is bonus money Hope it'll work out for someone. Seems like quite the long duration event for this side of the lake no?

The second things like sun angle start becoming an issue again all I can think about is the lake getting warm as fast as possible. I think last year was pretty good in that respect since spring was pretty solid iirc. Since we're looking at cold cold for at least the next two weeks, this may be my first year of actively pulling for a torch in about three weeks' time.

Ik it's been a pretty standout year for Chicago lake effect events but I'm pretty happy with the bonuses I've received here in westmont so far. I think snow cover has been far more consistent than back home in Aurora and I'm pleasantly surprised. It's definitely kept me from cad posting

Back to regularly scheduled low stakes programming

At least the pavement gets covered quick even if no grass tips might be a big ask

If you couldn't see the flakes you literally can't tell yet but it's already blowing on the roads with every last breeze particle simulation style. Even with shit rates and zero expectations it's comforting to know we're at least not losing a single flake to melt

Crack rock fairy shit commencing. Quite honestly in my mind I was worried we'd be shut out entirely if we didn't lock it in for real so it's nice to see even if it never ends up accumulating

We fr live in a society

I instinctively 100d you and I still agree but selfishly there's only about a month of Malacka Winter™ left and about half of that is apparently fixing to be CAD unironically now... Not complaining but it do be like that

Tell me I'm not tweaking... I noticed on this mornings dawg walk that climbing planes from O'Hare sounded comparatively hifi. Even from definitely a few thousand feet up you could hear tarmac-style turbine whine, yk that more shrill sound, echoing loudly off of adjacent apartment buildings quite literally the way it sounds in a terminal. I actually had a hard time finding them because the higher frequency sounds making it farther down are ofc coming when the plane is directly above you, which my monkey brain was not computing properly with how loud the sound was. Even with a clear sky, I just wasn't looking for hoes that far up and was therefore surprised when I realized. Ig I'm just shocked that if it's as simple as cold air = denser = transmits delicate high frequency sound waves better, that it makes such a massive difference between say 20° and -9° compared to 20° and 80°.

When you are the problem

Ite real shit you're right. For the zillionth time, I have zero actual knowledge but I have a good feeling. Obviously it's based on nothing but just in case there's any chance we get away with something, I want to put it on the record before it becomes obvious that my spidey senses are tingling

I promise, it came not from a place of wishcasting but of genuine desire to learn.

Mega fax.

But is it just BSing or does it show what it does because it handles the features you were previously mentioning differently in a fashion that still remains remotely possible?

Don't get me wrong I'm not trying to be silly and I'm definitely not saying its showing GHD IIIIII. Frankly, my enthusiasm revolves solely around ChiStorm's daily-at-best check-ins, so ya know where I'm at. Just looking on TT, the Euro AI seemed to bump a bit NW while everything else this suite hasn't, which I thought would be amusingly par for course if it's reflected in the base Euro too.

I think the 12z Euro is gonna make us lol a bit if the AI is an indicator which to my (CS not met-based) understanding it fundamentally is

I feel like this is a cart before horse situation... Usually the CAD comes first but I wonder whether Alek might've gotten to these last two clippers or something

I can't wait to see the EC ones in a few days

This shit is art

Nice make up for yesterday

North of I80 mfs: just look at this image and ignore all possible meteorological context that can stifle the glory it strikes in your heart.