Maybe I'm squinting at it too hard but it looks like the passage of the evening QLCS is bumping earlier instead of later, which I'd love to see it with even half a lux of sunlight left. Also:
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1015 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
There is a trailing boundary extending south from ongoing
convection across the Minneapolis area. This boundary may be
an initial source for forcing as it spreads towards northern
Illinois in the mid afternoon time frame. The airmass is still
stable per the extensive area of billow clouds across Iowa,
however we have noted a significant uptick in the dewpoints out
ahead of this feature. Instability progs would suggest by the
time this boundary arrives northern Illinois should destabilize,
and thus there at least some concerns for a leading round of
convection, which could be in the form of supercells with an all
hazard threat. Some questions still exists as to whether this
will just graze the local area or continue to push closer to the
Chicago metro area. There is a shortwave across Missouri that
also slide through the area ahead of the cold front which could
be a mechanism to keep convection farther east, so this will be
a mesoanalysis focus in the coming hours. Limiting factors for
this first round convection having a larger footprint would be
that the forcing is a bit more subtle, and we still have a
fairly deep dry layer ahead of this boundary.
Regardless of this, low level flow will reintensify ahead of
the cold front which should help to keep instability up into the
evening hours, where a damaging wind threat would be the
highest concern, along with a QLCS tornado threat. Thoughts from
the morning AFD still tell the story quite well.
KMD